Hurricane Katrina

Yeah it's up to 100 mph now.

Could be closing in on Cat 4 by the time it reaches land.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

It's certainly revving up...

Let's just hope it doesn't decide to loop...they seem to always be unable to predict looping.....

Oh man that track is going right over Atlanta. This could be very bad news for us. Our Pine trees will topple quite easily. Anything over 40mph and power will go out. Add in all the rain we have had this year and it looks like we are going to be flooded.

If I live in the panhandle, I would be leaving now. There is a cold front dropping in from the mid-west. This is why the 5-day paths have been pretty consistent. The worry here in Atlanta, is that the storm and the cold front will meet over us. Moist Tropical storm + cold front = tornadoes!


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[edit on 26-8-2005 by pantha]

NOAA really needs to get on the ball with their updates...

The last one (advisory) is showing as 11:30am, and that (above) map is showing 80mph and 11am....

I can see spacing it out when over the water and before any landfall, but after it's already hit (and hitting), it's time for hourly updates people, or at least every two hours...

Hey Gazrok you think I should start up a NHC Conspiracy thread when this is all over with? Keep an eye on buoy reports and see if you find anything between now and landfall that matches what the NHC says. There should be a couple of days before the 2nd landfall. Maybe we'll get lucky and this will go right over a buoy.

Edit: Geez. This storm looks to hit relatively close where Ivan and Dennis hit. Those people can't buy a break.

[edit on 8/26/2005 by Indy]

Well im from Pensacola, Florida and im about tired of drinking bottled water and stocking up on potted meat for all these darn Hurricanes. Im ready to move up north! Sleeping in your house in the middle of the summer with no power or AC sucks!

You know if you move up north we'll have a blizzard or ice storm that takes out power and you'll be doing the same thing. Except you'll be living in a house without heat when its 10 degrees outside. I'd tell you to relax because it can't get much worse. But who knows with the luck FL is having.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't wind speed reports the one minute average speed taken from an elevation of ten meters, which can and often is quite higher than real ground speed?

Also, I'm seeing the aeriel shots on the news, and I would almost say that they UNDERestimated Katrina's strength, the damage is certainly consistent with at least a very weak hurricane.

I think you're right about the wind speed, because that height is around industrial roof height, etc.

It certainly did more damage than most were thinking it'd do, and now it's just getting stronger.

An NOAA conspiracy thread would be excellent, hehe....

Semantics aside though, I feel for those in the panhandle...Ivan, Dennis, and now Katrina....man....

As for blizzards and no power...dude, there are plenty of ways to get warm, but not many ways to get cool without power. You can always pile on more clothes and sit by an oil lamp, but without power in the heat, you're pretty much screwed (and you can only strip down so much and still be legal, hehe..)

"As for blizzards and no power...dude, there are plenty of ways to get warm, but not many ways to get cool without power. You can always pile on more clothes and sit by an oil lamp, but without power in the heat, you're pretty much screwed (and you can only strip down so much and still be legal, hehe..) "

Thats exactly the reason I moved north. Easier to get warm than cool. As far as wind speeds when the NHC gives an advisory they aren't taking a measurement 10m from the ground. They are taking flight level and estimating surface winds. Winds will get higher as you go up. But thats not what the NHC is supposed to be doing. Only time this stuff matters with me is when it reaches the surface.

Edit: And that still doesn't explain why the numbers don't match up with buoys which have elevated equipment and no buildings to block the wind.

[edit on 8/26/2005 by Indy]

Originally posted by Gazrok
I think you're right about the wind speed, because that height is around industrial roof height, etc.

It certainly did more damage than most were thinking it'd do, and now it's just getting stronger.

An NOAA conspiracy thread would be excellent, hehe....

Semantics aside though, I feel for those in the panhandle...Ivan, Dennis, and now Katrina....man....

As for blizzards and no power...dude, there are plenty of ways to get warm, but not many ways to get cool without power. You can always pile on more clothes and sit by an oil lamp, but without power in the heat, you're pretty much screwed (and you can only strip down so much and still be legal, hehe..)

LOL That is what I always say, when asked why I prefer the winter over the summer. "You can always put on more layers, but there are only so many you can take off before you are arrested!"

These tracks are still speculation. Everything is riding on the interaction between the High pressure system sitting over the SE and the Low moving in. If the Low drops faster, and the High shifts West, then the track will return Northerly. I just hope it does. I know...I know the Panhandle needs a break, but the more that storm shifts West the stronger it is going to grow. Last thing I want to see is "The Big Easy" taking a cat. 5. If that happens we will have to find a new city for Mardi Gras.

/anyone notice that the map changes...humm never noticed that.

I'm in favor of NHC conspiracy too. Haven't believed their reports for years. They also have access to ham radio stations running with weather stations and what is called APRS software. Here is a site with live data. Could be handy Indy.

APRS

"Last thing I want to see is 'The Big Easy' taking a cat. 5. If that happens we will have to find a new city for Mardi Gras. "

Maybe not a cat 5 but New Orleans is looking more and more like a prime target for this storm. Bad for them but good for the Florida panhandle which has had more than their share of storms the past 2 years.

OH Joy! I'm back in troubble...

I've been doing so much nasa research lately that I have not paid any attetnion to teh weather until today I overheard somepeople talking about us abut to get hit by this hurricane!

YIPPIDIE YIPPIDIE YAY!

The storm is looking better organized. The pressure has been steady during the past 6 hours or so but that should change. The IR satellite images show the storm is trying to clear out an eye. The storm continues to move slight south of west and slowly. This should give the storm a good 3 days over open warm gulf water which is in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees. SST will definately support a cat 5. Question is whether the atmospheric conditions will support it and whether the storm will go through a prolonged phase of rapid strengthening. I would say at this point a cat 4 is very possible. I wouldn't rule out a cat 5 either.

Woo WHoo for me in neworleans!

Yeay can't you tell I'm excited...

Geting out the boards tommorw.

Better get to nailing, this could be 'The One'.....................

The storm is really getting organized with the big core of storms fully wrapped around the center. As of 2am the storm is being reported at 110mph with a minimum central pressure of 28.43. Once you get below 28.00" you are dealing with a nasty storm. I think this storm will break through the 28.00" barrier on Saturday.

Here is the latest IR image.

5AM ADVISORY

Well there it is Indy. 945MB puts the storm at 29.71 inches. Additionally it has begun to turn north. The eye was heading to the SW and is now on a westerly heading.

5AM Expanded Discussion

Salient points:

AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

KATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY
CANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... THEREFORE SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST... BUT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
PREVENT KATRINA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO 123 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW PEAKS AT 120 KT

Man 139-141mph getting awfully close to cat. 5 for comfort.

I figured she would go below 28.00" but I had no idea it would happen in 3 hours. I'd be real nervous if I lived in New Orleans. And yes she has an eye...



Cat 5 here we come!

Edit: And where I said going below 28.00" would make this a nasty storm going below 27.00" will make it catastrophic.

[edit on 8/27/2005 by Indy]