Hurricane Katrina

thanks jrod

I'm looking at the miami radar loop
www.srh.noaa.gov...

and now it looks like it just wobbled to the southwest
am I seeing things???

It does look like it has wobbled a little south. It also looks almost stationary, imho. The only thing that is certain is Katrina will still be a Florida threat tommorow.

Check this site out for some insight, www.storm2k.org... Their discussion board is full of pro meteorologists.

[edit on 24-8-2005 by jrod]

11pm advisory has winds at 50mph moving due West now at 8mph. And a Hurricane Warning has now been issued, upgraded from the Hurricane watch issued earlier. Tropical Storm Warning is still effect for most of the east coast from Central Florida to South Florida.




We could be expecting 15 inches plus of rain in my area I have a canal in my backyard
btw jrod, thanks again for that link, the NHC forecast path puts me in the wet nasty side, I've decided to close my shutters tomorrow morning, i'm not taking chances with any tornadoes.

[edit on 8-24-2005 by worldwatcher]

Did you notice the latest garbage in the 11pm advisory?

"The initial intensity has been increased to 45 knots based on Dvorak
estimates from all agencies and a better radar presentation. Latest
reconnaissance data at 2300 UTC did not show intensification and
the pressure was not dropping."

The recon where REAL data is collected showed no strengthening. Pressure did not drop as well. The pressure is still over 1000mb yet they increased the reported strength. This is to be expected these days with a storm approaching land. More bad reporting imho.

So are you saying a warning may not be justified as of yet Indy?
I think it's better that they over estimate this thing instead of under estimating it, it's too close to take any unneccary chances.

oh and while the pressure may not be dropping,to me, Katrina seems to be growing in size, pulling in alot of moisture and expanding out.

[edit on 8-24-2005 by worldwatcher]

Its one thing to issue a warning as a precaution. Its another to fudge on the storm strength. It is looking better organized and the pressure may start to fall rapidly But as of now I'd bet the winds are actually 40 or less. Forgive me for being a skeptic. The NHC has lost a lot of credibility over the past couple of years.

so do you think is currently the most accurate with these things? unless you're a meteorologist, I don't see how you could argue with their stats, and all the meteorologists seem to agree with the NHC info. My favorite weather guy Don Noe is going along with that info but saying that the hurricane status would be minimal and short lived upon landfall.

Looking at Sat and radars 45-50 mph sounds about right. There's no way it's less than 40.
The Recon flights haven't been in there for a while but should be in soon. So we'll know in a couple hours what the real pressure (and wind speed) is.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
so do you think is currently the most accurate with these things? unless you're a meteorologist, I don't see how you could argue with their stats, and all the meteorologists seem to agree with the NHC info. My favorite weather guy Don Noe is going along with that info but saying that the hurricane status would be minimal and short lived upon landfall.

Oh its easy to argue with their stats. I've followed this stuff for so many years I am very familiar with that kind of pressure to associate with what kind of wind speed. I can also tell by the satellite image if things don't add up. The NHC has made fools of themselves with wild wind reports that never pan out. As I have mentioned on this site before just look at the hurricanes that made landfall last year. There were a bunch. Not a single observation station anywhere reported a sustained wind anywhere close to what the NHC reported. They have had storms go right over buoys and the numbers didn't match. I have seen so many shotty storms get such great writeups by the NHC that I can only roll my eyes at it. Unfortuantely most of your TV meteorologist wouldn't know fact from fiction when it comes to hurricanes. They frankly aren't that smart for the most part. They take what the NHC gives them and they read it. They basically aren't allowed to report otherwise.

Not since the Andrew adjsutments have the NHC reports really meant anything.

per Dr Lyons at the NHC, they had some mechanical issues with the recon planes and haven't been able to send a plane out in the past 12 hours and probably won't have "real" new info till the 11 am advisory.

It has started raining here, very lightly right now, but raining non the less.

Looking due East


not much changes in the 8am advisory, still 50mph from the 5am advisory, but the pressure has dropped on millibar to 999mb, and satellite imagery looks like Katrina is trying to get it's act together and convection is flaring up again.

[edit on 8-25-2005 by worldwatcher]

I've closed all but one of my shutters since this thing seems to have it's eye on Fort Lauderdale and is intensifying slowly.

First significant feeder band I've noticed is now coming thru, with moderate rainfall.

I'll keep updating the thread with pictures and info as long as the power holds out...once I'm offline, I hope other can pick up the slack for me and keep track of this thing....once it passes me, we still have to watch Katrina for where it will make it's second landfall.



the above pic is of the canal behind my house, should be helpful in monitoring how much rain we get and how well the waterways handle the outflow today.... and btw that is my neighbor's bbq grill, not mine, my backyard is clean and clear.


[edit on 8-25-2005 by worldwatcher]

As I have mentioned on this site before just look at the hurricanes that made landfall last year. There were a bunch. Not a single observation station anywhere reported a sustained wind anywhere close to what the NHC reported.

Going to have to agree with Indy here on those points... Having been in so many last year, we didn't see anything NEAR what the NHC was saying for sustained winds, even when right on top of us...

Still, they've gotten MUCH better at predicting the path, so gotta give them credit on that point at least.

At least this storm won't be too bad...mostly rain for us on the West Coast (I'm in Tampa Bay), maybe some minor surge if it gets up to cat 1 after going into the gulf, but I doubt it. It'll probably be a cat 1 when making landfall, then quickly break up as it moves over the state, being a weak TS or even a strong depression by the time it gets to the gulf. (imho)

8am advisory from NHC:

************************************

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 50 MPH...AND FREEPORT ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.



[edit on 25-8-2005 by Gazrok]

I'm about to go offline to prepare lunch and dinner early
anyone interested can stay up to date with live feeds, webcams and radars from these local Broward and Miami television stations, also covers Palm Beach.

www.nbc6.net...

www.local10.com...

www.wfor.com...

www.sun-sentinel.com...

Good luck WW, and be sure to keep track of Mr. Cantore, hehe....

NHC 1pm Advisory

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST
...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

It's only got a few mph more to go till hurricane status... I'd wager by the 8pm update, we'll be looking at Hurricane Katrina...

Gaz watch out for this thing, some of the models have it coming back near you next!!! you're going to get awfully wet too.

Landfall for me should be between 8-10pm tonight.
radar is showing something of an eye forming...I'm thinking its at hurricane status right now or very close to it.

winds are currently sustained between 20-25mph
this is what it looks like outside


[edit on 8-25-2005 by worldwatcher]

Oh, I fully expect it to roll right over Tampa Bay....

However, after going across the state, it's going to lose a lot of it's punch.
We've been through FAR worse last year, hehe... But yep, we're going to get a ton of rain. We kind of need it anyhoo....

Well it looks like some of us live in a nice neighborhood . lol. Thanks for the pics. Don't suppose you can shoot video too?