Tracking Hurricane Emily

Im guessing were in for close to 25 storms. Id say 25 as a minmum. You have no idea how early it is in the season. If waters are this warm now just wait till mid september.

11am update...

Got to hand it to NOAA, NHC... They've done a superb job this year of predicting tracks. Just hope the Weather Channel doesn't send Jim Cantore' to Texas, hehe..... or they're doomed.... (and likely Jim too, as they'll probably hogtie him when they see Mr. Hurricane Magnet)....

Originally posted by Gazrok

Why does this not look right? The path is going to adjust to the northeast if it starts hitting the Yucatan - right???

My beloved Yucatan - be safe! Una mas cerveza, por favor!

As of the 5pm EDT advisory Hurricane Emily is now a major with sustained winds at 115mph. The central pressure is 968mb or 28.57" The changes reflect a doubling of wind speed and a pressure drop of over 30mb in the past 24 hours. Images will be updated later.

Here is the first Emily satellite image with a visible eye.



www.climatepatrol.com...

Here is the 5pm EDT 5 day projection from the NHC. Looking at this projection I can't help but wonder about the Gilbert factor. Back in 1988 the models kept trying to turn Gilbert north but the change never happened. Now this path is within miles of being the exact same path Gilbert took. Are the models relying too much on historical tracks?



www.climatepatrol.com...

Emily has become deadly, claims One life:
Hurricane Emily Kills One in Grenada

Here is the latest image showing the top 5 models from wunderground.com . They show something a little different from previous runs. Two tracks take the storm over the Yucatan. Three however now have the storm squeezing between the Yucatan and Cuba and moving free of land into the Gulf of Mexico. This would certainly be very bad news for Texas. The last thing you want is a major hurricane entering that region of the gulf free from obstruction of the penninsula of Yucatan or Cuba. If you live in Texas especially along the southern half of the gulf coast I'd recommend to keep a very close watch of this storm for the next few days.



www.climatepatrol.com...

Yet another notch on global warmings bedpost.

From 5pm to 8pm the pressure in Emily dropped 6mb from 968 to 962 or to 28.40" I'd look for an increase in wind speeds with the 11pm advisory. If there is no additional pressure drop I'd look for 120mph.

The 11pm EDT advisory is out and the pressure has dropped another 5mb down to 957 (28.25") and the sustained winds are up to 125mph which is just shy of cat 4. The storm loooks even better on the latest satellite and water vapor images. I suspect we will be looking at a cat 4 by the 5am or 8am advisory.

Also of note.... the projected track keeps shifting ever so slightly to the right with each passing update. This is making the possibility of the storm missing landfall in the Yucatan and Cuba even greater.

I still wont underestimate emily. Some of these hurricanes make U turns out of nowhere. I wouldnt be amaze if she makes a sharp right turn.


But then again...


I live in Florida.

Emily is now a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 MPH....latest advisory:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Map:

Originally posted by Indy



www.climatepatrol.com...

The lime green path in this one is what I was expecting to see. Thanks everybody on this thread for keeping us informed!

2 Cat 4's, and we're only in JULY!!! Usually, we only get 2 storms of that strength ALL SEASON! Man, this is a busy one..... Lets hope they're as accurate with this one as with Dennis...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151149
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VENEZUELA
AND FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT EMILY MAY HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[edit on 15-7-2005 by Gazrok]

Someone at NOAA screwed up, and posted the 11am advisory from yesterday...so watch out for that one....

The chart is at least correct though...





[edit on 15-7-2005 by Gazrok]

The storm looks ragged now as you can see from the image Gazrok posted. The storm is encountering pretty strong west to east winds ahead of it. As a result since the 5am advisory the storm has gone from 135mph down to 115mph. If the shear persists I'd expect the winds to drop even more.

Yep, basically the same thing keeping it from coming my way, might end up shearing it apart....even as strong as it is...

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR BUT A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

From NOAA 2pm update

[edit on 15-7-2005 by Gazrok]

After looking extremely pathetic most of the day and undergoing considerable weakening (down to 105mph and nearly 970mb low) the storm is recovering very fast. As of 8pm EDT winds were back up to 115mph and the pressure was falling rapidly down to 958mb. The latest vortex message from the NHC appears to reflect a slightly lower pressure as well. The 11pm advisory should be out in approximately 1 hour. Here is the latest IR satellite image. Much better looking.



www.climatepatrol.com...

As of 11pm EDT Hurricane Emily has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135mph. Lowest central pressure is 954mb (28.16"). The current storm track is WNW at 18mph.