Tracking Hurricane Emily

It is official. Tropical storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Here is the official NHC advisory.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 120233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


title edited as per indys request

[edit on 12-7-2005 by pantha]

[edit on 7-14-2005 by William One Sac]

Any idea of the storms "catogory". I seem to recall that experts were prediction that it would be a 3 on the scale?

BillyTheCat

Here is the latest 5 day forecast track from the NHC. This doesn't look good. Keep in mind this track will change 20 times over the next 10 5 days. Keep an eye open for this one. This looks to add to what is already an expensive hurricane season.

Not good, environment is favorable for development and it's aiming in the same general direction as of now. I really feel bad for those in Haiti if they are affected by Emily next.

lol..don't need two of the same image


[edit on 7-11-2005 by worldwatcher]

Right now the models are in good agreement on the path but in great disagreement on strength. The water is a bit cool in its path (relatively speaking) and the projected path takes it very close to land. Through 5 days I would expect it to get no bigger than cat 2 and that would be on the high end. Give it 2 days and I think we'll be able to better nail the chance of this system hitting the U.S.

Additional note: Sea surface temps anywhere in the path of this storm are no better than 84 degrees. 84 is good but 86 is better when you want to build and sustain a BIG storm. If the storm takes the more southerly route it will move over water recently visited by Dennis and the water will be cooler due to upwelling. If it takes the middle track it will come to close to the islands or even go over them. The more northerly track makes the storm vulnerable to troughs and it becomes more likely the storm will be picked up and head out to sea.

Most predictions have it as becoming a Cat 2 in the coming days...

Note to author, may want to edit the title to "Tropical Storm Emily".....

Great...another storm to watch for... It's going to be a busy season....

Could be a cat 3 in a week.

It's going to be a busy season

It hasn't been already?
We only had 6 named storms in all of 1992 and 7 in 1997. We have 5 already and the peak is still over 2 months away.



If anyone wants to know what Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Dennis have done before...go here
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

These names were last used in '99. Emily didn't form until Aug. 24th.
Floyd was the doozy of that year, so Floyd been replaced with Franklin this year.

Every model run pushes the storm track further and further south. This path looks more like what Gilbert did. Here is the latest image from wunderground.com .

Yep, been seeing that too...

MOD Note: Please edit the title to be "Tropical Storm Emily" and please "sticky" this post temporarily as it is an active storm. As "Dennis" is no longer nameworthy, can unsticky it (or maybe in a few days when completely gone)...

Emily numbers remain relatively unchanged as of the 5 pm AST advisory with 50mph winds and a 1000mb low. Here is the latest 5 day track from the NHC.

If it makes it between cuda and that land that Juts out from mexico then all bets are off as to the end strenght of this storm .
heres hoping it goes Up stright up that is.

Looks like all of this praying has kept my home, Miami, out of the way so far. I'll keep it up lol.

Emily has started to make her move in the form of strength. As of the 11pm AST advisory Emily has sustained winds of 60mph and a central pressure of 997 mb. The storm is moving to the west at 19mph. This advisory reflects a 10mph increase in wind speed and a 3 mb drop in pressure from the 8pm AST advisory.

It seems to be headed straight into the gulf again. Any chance the weakening of the gulf stream is causing these storms to not head up the east coast or is this just typical so early in the season? Might the east coast get spared this season?

This one seems to be going very much to the south:




[edit on 7/13/2005 by djohnsto77]

Originally posted by Relentless
It seems to be headed straight into the gulf again. Any chance the weakening of the gulf stream is causing these storms to not head up the east coast or is this just typical so early in the season? Might the east coast get spared this season?

These are typical tracks for storms this early. Starting in late July and when the Cape Verde storms start getting going, that's when Hurricanes tend to become more of a threat to the east coast. Though it is very possible to have a strom to hit the east coast this early.

Here's what's typical.

Its starting to look more and more like Emily will be a non factor for at least the U.S. As of latest report the pressure is up to 1003 mb. Emily is moving so close to South America that she may have trouble maintaining tropical storm strength unless a more wnw track develops.

Put hurricane Emily in the books. All day this storm looked pathetic with the pressure hovering between 1000 and 1003 mb. Frankly the 60mph rating was probably well overstated given the condition of the storm. A few hours later the pressure had fallen to 992 mb and the winds ramped up to 90mph and intensifying rapidly. Don't be too shocked if the winds are up to close to 100mph by the 1am AST advisory. Here is the latest image...

hey, I really am not that into weather forcasting, but how many potential hurricanes do yous think there might be in this loop?

www.ssd.noaa.gov...