Tropical Storm/Hurricane Dennis

That's an accurate representation....

Originally posted by Gazrok
Here's a scary map...wind probabilities...
Even if it goes EXACTLY as predicted, I'm still looking at Hurricane force winds. I imagine I'll be in a Hurricane Watch zone soon....

Not exactly. That map you posted shows the probability of tropical storm force winds over the next few days. With the red part having the highest probability.
You're still in the green (meaning low probability) of having hurricane force winds.


Here's a much better map, showing Hurricane force winds staying well away from you.



Tracks can change of course, so you still need to keep an eye out.

[edit on 8-7-2005 by ThatsJustWeird]

Not exactly. That map you posted shows the probability of tropical storm force winds over the next few days. With the red part having the highest probability.
You're still in the green (meaning low probability) of having hurricane force winds.

Hehe...chalk that up to color blindness....

Of course, that's all assuming it goes as predicted....

Dennis the Menace

www.nnvl.noaa.gov...



This looks to be a monster. It looks like it will hit land around Cienfuegos and hit ocean again 100 miles later around Matanzas.

www.cia.gov...


That HPS from yesterday is gone from the 12 hour map.
(EDIT: The HPS has reappeared within the last 10 minutes 12:45 EST)
(EDIT: The HPS appears to be moving west. Check between 12 and 24 hour maps

12 Hour
24 Hour


No known factors to interfere with fullfillment of strike probabilities.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...?large


Squall lines have already hit the keys and small portions of south Florida.

baynews9.com...


Cloud cover over the Keys.

webcam.keywest.com...
remove "ssindex.htm" from URL for more cams

[edit on 7-8-2005 by ShadowHasNoSource]

2000+ Related News Stories

184 mph Wind Gusts!

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT

130 knot = 149.6013282 mile/hour (mph)

160 knot = 184.1247117 mile/hour (mph)

Link

Still looking for those 2pm updates....NOAA is a bit slow sometimes...

I just heard winds down to 145mph

yep..accuweather has the 2pm update
hurricane.accuweather.com...


[edit on 7-8-2005 by worldwatcher]

Thanks! I imagine it'll be down around a Cat 3 while crossing over Cuba, then reintensify as a strong Cat 4, Cat 5 by the time it makes landfall in the panhandle..... I just hope it keeps over the water and just far enough away from us. No telling how it'll wobble while crossing Cuba though, so we'll know more tonight I suppose...

The Weather Channel just updated also...(NOAA still is lagging)

Dennis makes landfall

2:15 p.m. ET Fri.,Jul.8,2005
M. Ressler, Meteorologists, The Weather Channel

As of 1:00 p.m. ET, Dennis' maximum sustained winds have tailed off slightly to 145 mph, making it still a very dangerous Category 4 major hurricane. Hurricane Dennis made a brief landfall near Cabo Cruz, Cuba on Thursday evening. The eye has now made a second landfall on the south-central coast of Cuba near Cienfuegos and will move steadily across western Cuba, finally emerging into the Gulf early Saturday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for eastern and central Cuba (including the city of Havana). A hurricane watch is posted for the western tip of Cuba and the Isle of Youth.

In the U.S., a hurricane warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been issued for the remainder of the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and Florida Bay. A tropical storm warning is also in effect from Bonita Beach, Fla. along the Gulf and down around eastward to Golden Beach, Fla. along the Atlantic. A tropical storm watch has been posted from Longboat Key, Fla. to Bonita Beach, Fla.

Heavy 5-to-15-inch rains and destructive winds continue to pound Cuba. Also, the southern coast of Cuba is being battered with high waves. The Cayman Islands could pick up an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain. Mudslides and flooding are likely. The winds will gradually increase over southernmost Florida but any damaging winds will be confined to the Keys plus the outer rain bands could produce 4-to-8-inch totals over southern Florida by Saturday. Outer bands with heavy rain and gusty winds could affect much of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Although the trek across Cuba may blunt the hurricane's strength, Dennis will still be a dangerous hurricane plowing NNW through the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. All interests along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Dennis very carefully.

Four Atlantic weather systems -- Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Dennis -- reached Tropical Storm status by July 5, the earliest for so many named storms in recorded history. Only three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit the U.S. coast in July in the past 100 years. When the maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Dennis peaked at 150 mph this past morning, Dennis officially became the strongest July Atlantic Basin hurricane on record and the strongest Atlantic hurricane this early in hurricane season.

[edit on 8-7-2005 by Gazrok]

I too keep thinking Category 5 by the time it lands in the Gulf Coast. Just made landfall in Cuba, and that's like braking a little bit for a bump, then flooring it once it clears the bump (or Cuba).

I'm in Ohio. We'll get the leftovers, which means our weather radio is going to be spouting off flood watches and warnings for our area come Wednesday or so, if Dennis continues on the projected path.

Hope you guys down south are okay!

it's starting to get cloudy now over Fort Lauderdale and getting a bit breezy too. Flood watch has been issued for our area too, but no rain yet.
my current conditions....
7/8/05
2:26:26 PM CURRENT MIN/MAX RATE
Temperature (ºF) 89.2 81.0 / 90.3 2.2
Humidity (%) 73.1 71.6 / 92.2 3.4
Wind (mph) ESE 22.4 ESE 30.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00 No Rain Today 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.92 29.92 / 30.00 0.02
Heat Index: 105.2 ºF Monthly Rain: 0.30 " Dew Point:80.0 ºF

Looks like no matter what I need to batten down the hatches, pronto. I am smack in the middle of all the possibilties.



I really want to wish this storm away but I really don't want to wish it on anyone else. At least I know I can survive. I am worried about all the diehards that live on this island. They didn't leave for Ivan and we were predicted to get a direct hit until the last hour.

This set of predictions has me a little because they don't have us getting a direct hit. You know if they predict it, it won't come. At least that has seem to been the case in my twenty-four years on the gulf coast. But I know, too many factors that are unpredictable. Not their fault.

But if that guy on the weather channel, not Jim Cantore some , does that smug little smile and says that "One right after the other" junk again, I think I may resort to violence. Actually, come to think of it, I can't remember seeing him recently. Good.

Well I am off to make sure all that can fly away, won't.

I feel for you, but I like those models a lot better than the projected cone! If it follows those tracks, I'm outta harm's way....

I think all of us on the Gulf coast are still watching and waiting though, and preparing, nonetheless...

Well my advice for Gazrok and any other ATS members who think they might get caught up in this, to get the hell outta there! Especially if you live in one of those wooden houses, I mean seriously its just not worth the risk guys. As it stands now, foolhardy people will die from this hurricane, don't let it be you.

Landfall #1....



When it gets back over the Gulf, it'll strengthen again...but to a Cat 5? I don't know about all that. The current forcast is for it to go back up to a 4 after dropping briefly to a 3. That sounds about right.
A Hurricane becoming Cat 5 is extremely rare and it's very difficult for storms to do period, let alone for one that's gone over land already.

And go where exactly? Too many times last year, people left here, only to get hit where they thought it was safer....

I'm pretty inland (as I can be), and my house is pretty secure (metal awnings come down, bolt over the windows, etc.) and pretty well-supplied.

While the Bay News 9 track is usually farther to the west than most NOAA models, here's the latest projection path I could find...since NOAA STILL hasn't updated theirs yet....

As I was saying in the Fark.com forums (I post there under my real name, Alexandra), every time they send Jim Cantore out there they ought to dress him up in a hooded robe and give him a scythe.

Hm...call him the Hurricane Harbinger!

This is from Accuweather's site:

They just mentioned that it jogged a bit and WON'T hit the mountains of Cuba, allowing it to retain plenty of strength while traversing the island.

Ok well all im saying is for all you guys to keep track of this thing, which im sure you are...but I wouldn't treat this as 'just another hurriane. I've got this feeling that Dennis is going to be a real monster...200Mph? come on this is like a HUGE TORNADO. Some people will die, 4 already have in Haiti, half a million have been evacuated from thier homes in cuba...expected to strengthen after cuba. Just be sensible, if your not in a well secure house, then go somewhere that is. Keep the loss to material things. Ok rant over.