Tropical Storm/Hurricane Dennis

While Cindy is busy slamming Louisianna, we've got Dennis on the way also...

Here's the projected track...with it possibly becoming a hurricane by tonight...





Feel free to add more info as this progresses. Personally, I'd like to see each storm have their own thread, and stickied while active. (there's another thread covering Cindy, that should probably get a title change and sticky).

www.abovetopsecret.com...

That way, we won't wade through old, old posts to get updates on current storms. Also, note to mods of this forum to please change the title of this thread when status is changed to hurricane... Thanks!

From NOAA...11am advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS A LITTLE STRONGER AND NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 395 MILES... 635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.4 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.



[edit on 6-7-2005 by Gazrok]

[edit on 7-7-2005 by John bull 1]

Does anyone (Indy) knows what the Bermuda High will be doing over the next couple of days? If it weakens a bit, Dennis could move closer to Florida, but I can't seem to find anything on how to track or monitor the Bermuda high. any help would be appreciated.

Just looking at the sat images (others in motion), it looks like that high will eventually move away, and you may be right in that it could come closer to Florida, much like many of the storms did last year, with a similar track.



To be honest, if it even takes a track ANYWHERE in the forecasted cone, we're going to get the nasty side of that storm...and it's going to be a big one from the looks of it. With our recent temps, I'd wager it'll be a cat 3 hurricane by the time it's near my area (Tampa)...

[edit on 6-7-2005 by Gazrok]

I'm fearing that wet side too, but I'm not sure what exactly I should be doing right now to prepare. I have all the essentials supplies, maybe I might stock up on some more junkfood, water and sodas to keep us entertained if we're rained in this weekend, but it looks like this will continue to be a wait and see situation in regards to preparation...Friday and the weekend could be mayhem in the stores if the path shifts a little towards the peninsula, so I guess now would be the best time for those unprepared to start stocking up at the grocery stores before it gets crazy.

and I agree Dennis looks promising as a strong CAT 2 or 3. quite impressive on the satellite imagery, looks like it is getting more organized, we might even see a visible eye before the day is over.

Anyone else see the monster brewing of the coast of Africa?

www.weather.com...

It is huge, am I right in that storms move from Africa to America? If that is true, look out North America.

oh wow!! that is one massive wave, I'm paying so much attention to Dennis, that I didn't even notice that coming off of Africa. maybe it will become Emily or maybe (hopefully) it will fizzle out before it gets to the Caribbean.

Most waves rolling off Africa look impressive coming off the continent. Most tend to fizzle out before developing into anything (typically there's usually around 100 waves coming off Africa in a given year. And of course we don'te have 100 tropical storms a year).
We'll see how this one plays out. The longer it holds together over the water, the better chances of it developing into something. It's still a bit early for Cape Verde storms but, we'll see....

As for Dennis:
The lastest forcast is for it to peak at 115 mph winds, which is a low Cat 3.


Official track (should be updated around 5pm EST):

Well I guess I'll get to use my new honda generator. Gazrok,Worldwatcher, I'm going to hook up the beer fridge to it, wanna have a hurricane party?j/k

Hehe....you buyin'?

Going grocery shopping today to fill in the supplies gap, just in case...

Usually they don't come from Africa till later in the season I thought...of course it isn't unheard of...so the wave doesn't surprise me... I'll just take it one storm at a time, thanks, hehe....

I'd post the NOAA 2pm update, but not much has really changed, so no need really. We may know more at 5pm EDT...

[edit on 6-7-2005 by Gazrok]

Crap. That means I'll be stacking aircraft Sunday evening. What a pain.

Tropical Storm Dennis is now Hurricane Dennis as of the 6pm advisory, 1st of 2005 Season
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062201
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES DENNIS
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

and interesting to note is how far tropical wind forces extend from the center. The Florida peninsula is bound to feel some of Dennis regardless of where in the panhandle it might end up.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...
130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

[edit on 7-6-2005 by worldwatcher]

Guantanamo Prepares for Dennis

Dennis Nears Hurricane Strength, Causes Flooding in Haiti and Threatens Guantanamo Jail
Inside the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, the military prepared audio tapes in at least eight languages warning that a storm was coming and heavy steel shutters would be closed on some cell windows, said Col. Mike Bumgarner.

Military officials had no immediate plans to evacuate troops or detainees at Camp Delta, which is about 150 yards from the ocean but was built to withstand winds up to 90 mph, according to Navy Cmdr. Anne Reese, supervisor of camp maintenance and construction.

Power lines could be knocked down and roofs could be damaged on some older, wooden buildings, Reese said.

"It will be bad, but it's not going to be very destructive," she said.

and South Florida may likely be spared from the worst, rainy weekend but that's about it (yeah!!!)

Dennis grows into a hurricane
''The official forecast . . . calls for a major, dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico,'' said hurricane forecaster Lixion Avila.

The storm's projected path kept the potent core well west of South Florida and the Florida Keys, but Dennis was expected to grow in size as well as intensity and the region could be swept by Dennis' outlying wind and rain this weekend.

Local forecasters predicted periods of heavy rain and gusty wind in South Florida from Thursday night through Sunday. They warned of dangerous boating conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

''It looks like we'll mostly be spared, but it will be a pretty crummy weekend,'' said Jim Lushine, the National Weather Service's severe weather expert for South Florida.

It may be far worse for other Floridians, including many still recovering from last year's unprecedented quartet of hurricanes.

The five-day forecast suggested that Dennis could strike the mainland close to Pensacola as a major Category 3 hurricane early Monday. The same area was bulldozed last September by Hurricane Ivan, also a Category 3 storm on the five-category Saffir-Simpson scale.

Dennis now a Category 2 Hurricane, as of the 8am advisory, with steady winds of 105mph with higher gusts, and is expected to strengthen. The track has been moved a little more eastward, now including my neck of the woods (though I fully expect it to track even more eastward as that high departs, and the storm rides the coast north of Kingston, Jamaica...).

A cat 2 already
Forecasters were saying that wouldn't happen till late today. I hope Dennis doesn't surpass a Cat 3 but at this pace he might.

I'm worried about those slight shifts too Gaz, if it goes more to East, Dennis's effects will probably sneak up on alot of people who are currently focusing only on the panhandle as the strike zone.

Yep, and oddly, the news stations have been stating we're out of it with a LOT more confidence than is warranted...(especially with us back in the cone)... The jokers did SO well last year....

Check this out for an idea of where it will go...

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

That motion says further east to me...but I hope I'm wrong.

I'm hoping the land crossing will keep it at a Cat 2 or low Cat 3, but still nothing to balk at..... Fill up those gas tanks if anywhere near that cone folks, as the rigs in the Gulf are closed, so higher gas prices (and they'll be running out) tomorrow. And check the Hurricane Tips thread...there's a lot there that you WON'T find on most standard lists, from those of us who've been through these before....

I've looked at several images and while the official movement still is WNW as officials are saying, it does look to have shifted slightly east. Good news for Jamaica I hope, in that eye will not pass directly over it.

Sorry I haven't had a chance to chime in sooner. Been really busy here. Looks as if this storm is making a more northerly diversion from its track which will mean that it will pass along the north shore of Jamaica which is good for them and its more likely to pass a little further east over Cuba. What that means is that it will pass over more land and higher mountains which will weaken the storm more. I think it also makes a FL landfall more likely. I'd keep a close eye on this if I lived near Pennsacola. Hope I spelled that name right. More later.

11AM advisory is out
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE
WEST COAST.

Hate to say I said so....

But if you look at the cone, it's taken quite a little shift over FL....

This sucks. Especially since my AC went out last week in the van (it's a frickin' 2003 for Christ's sake!) and the quote was about $600 to fix it. Needless to say, I'm getting a second opinion, but likely not going to have it fixed before the rain gets here from that thing.... And high humidity + closed windows + no AC = no driving in the rain....

Dennis has developed a nice little eye.....