Something is not adding up in regards to the H-1B commotion

Here are, to me some interesting findings regarding the H-1B visa debate. I tend to use the last source as PDB seems to provide very good and acurate data however my point is that any source for total jobs you use the 500k total H-1B visa participants seems like a very low percentage of STEM workers in the US. I am just trying to start a conversation here to learn more about the issue, doesn't 500k H-1B participants in an industry with millions, 10's of millions STEM workers seem very low and not a big issue? There is so much more to discuss here but this is my starting point. What do you think?

Over the next 10 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects there to be 821,300 new openings for STEM jobs, according to recent estimates. This represents a roughly 9% increase in the number of STEM jobs in the U.S. However, not all STEM jobs are projected to grow at the same rate.

toal number of STEM jobs varies from one report to anther? from 2022

Here is another report addressing the amount of stem jobs. Which was from, 2021-one year earlier-, and a significantly higher number of STEM jobs.

In 2021, 24% of the U.S. workforce worked in STEM occupations (36.8 million workers)

STEM job totals from 2021

And finally, a recent podcaster addressing the numbers of H-1B visa workers currently in the program working in the US. Interesting, 75 percent are Indians and the total number of H-1B participants is 500k.
PDB podcast reviewing statistics and analysis of the H-1B debate

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

I think there are two ways to look at it.

Is there excess jobs available? Are the people coming over and contributing? If the answer is yes to both, I don’t see a problem.

The issue that most have been talking about is mainly illegal immigration. One other point has been the colloquial “they took er’ jobs”, which is probably true for construction, but a lot of the other entry level industries are something most Americans wouldn’t do.

This begs the question though, would the free market price farm hands higher if there no illegal migrants. Even if they did would we be able to match production. I say yes to the former and doubtful on the latter.

The question with H-1b Visas is similar, would the pay be higher if there was a smaller, more domestic pool to choose from? Again, I’d have the same answer.

The other part of this no one wants to talk about is the fact all western countries have declining population. That is a threat to current monetary systems, where you have built in and intentional inflation yet expect YoY growth.

This all comes down to the point that immigration isn’t perfect, but necessary. I think it needs some reform. End illegal immigration, make seasonal visas for labor work, and keep the H-1b program. We’ll have to trust those in power to keep the balance so Americans aren’t hurt, and there in lies the problem.

From your own post….


821,000 jobs added over 10 years in theory
500,000 visa holders immigrate every year…in practice

36,400,000 total steam jobs. As of 2021

38,200,000 total number of jobs project by 2031

5,000,000 number of visa holders projected in the same 10 years.

500,000 is 1.4% of 36,400,000

5,000,000 is 13% of 38,200,200.


Is it a big problem? You decide.


a reply to: fringeofthefringe

500,000 is 1.4% of 36,400,000

5,000,000 is 13% of 38,200,200.

You mixed his first link with the other links. The 10% was from a 2021 report and the 10% was 800k jobs from the total STEM, which would have had the total STEM jobs at 8 million....again, based on the reporting from the first link which I don't think was acurate.

originally posted by: Athetos
From your own post….


821,000 jobs added over 10 years in theory
500,000 visa holders immigrate every year…in practice

36,400,000 total steam jobs. As of 2021

38,200,000 total number of jobs project by 2031

5,000,000 number of visa holders projected in the same 10 years.

500,000 is 1.4% of 36,400,000

5,000,000 is 13% of 38,200,200.


Is it’s big problem? You decide.


a reply to: fringeofthefringe

No...
I mentioned in the OP. Irregardless of which statistic for total jobs you use 500k H-1B visa workers is the total in the US today, the 500k is a constant and not part of the first link report. THE 10% you referenced was specific to the first link and, based on that-in my opinion flawed data-, the total of H-1B visa workers in 2022 would have been less than 500k of the 8 million. The point was, even at 8 million if 500k workers in the STEM fields are H-1B visa participants that is low.
The total number of STEM jobs is more likely 40-60 million so that even makes the point even stronger that 500k is hardly a concern.

originally posted by: Athetos

5,000,000 is 13% of 38,200,200.

Is it’s big problem? You decide.

Is 13% unemployment a big deal?

We still need to look at the issue of whether they come here truly needed or just cheaper labor in jobs that pay well. How many are true top tier talent? I'm sure that is what Musk is taking about, but top talent is a very small amount of the total.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Athetos

5,000,000 is 13% of 38,200,200.

Is it’s big problem? You decide.

Is 13% unemployment a big deal?

We still need to look at the issue of whether they come here truly needed or just cheaper labor in jobs that pay well. How many are true top tier talent? I'm sure that is what Musk is taking about, but top talent is a very small amount of the total.

Yes, but if there are, let's say 50 million STEM jobs here in the US than 500 thousand of those STEM jobs doesn't seem much and you have to wonder why Elon or Vivek chose to make it such an issue. I must say it is an easier discussion to have in person than online but my point, my starting point is to establish how many STEM jobs are there in the US and what is the total number H-1B participants. Without those numbers we cannot know the importance of what the H-1B debate is about. Again, if there are roughly, 50 million STEM jobs here in the US than 500 thousand of those STEM jobs doesn't seem much of an issue.

Is there excess jobs available? Are the people coming over and contributing? If the answer is yes to both, I don’t see a problem.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Yes, good points made. Also, how many tech sector or STEM jobs are offshored? There are a great deal of questions regarding this topic and since many here do a good job of researching and playing devil's advocate I thought we could boil this down to better understand it.

My last link in the OP is, in my opinion, the best source. It is a 15-20 minute segment so nobody has watched it who has commented. I think it would be very helpful and enlightening.

In this H-1B debate, to me, things aren't adding up or making sense. If someone could break it down that would be great. So far it ses like something else is going on here that is behind the scenes. I had a great discussion last night, once we get the parameters established I think this could be a very robust, informative discussion where I could learn a great deal and others too.

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Only other thing I’d be curious of is what the cost to pay people using those visas are compared to the industry average. I wonder if it’s highly competitive, and they are just sought because they’re the top of their field, or if they are paid less and it’s a way for big tech companies and the like to save on some of the highest earning positions.

That’s certainly a problem we see in entry level positions.

It’s a hard one to navigate too. On one hand, you have people who live paycheck to paycheck, and they may attribute part of that to competition with people willing to make under minimum wage. And on the other hand you have people who paid for school, and may blame visas and offshoring to why they can’t get the job/pay they want after their investment.

I think we’re only seeing this being such a part of the conversation because it (may) affect the upper echelon of society. That, and it’s a perceived opportunity to catch Trump with egg on his face.

That said, this will probably be out of the news cycle in days. And it may reappear if there is any legislation around it, but will probably linger in the news cycle for a week after that’s over.

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

A lot of it is offshored.

Nvidia and Apple make almost all their chips through TSMC in Taiwan. There’s a lot of engineering and support jobs at those fabs.

They’re building a plant in Arizona soon, but that will just help mitigate what we saw as supply chain bottlenecks by putting some of the foundry here. That will just help mitigate a fraction though, and it looks like Malaysia will be the next big destination for Nvidia and Apple, along with India.

A lot of coding is also outsourced to places like India.

Only other thing I’d be curious of is what the cost to pay people using those visas are compared to the industry average. 

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Yes, that and offshoring too.
First we establish the basic parameters- which are the total U.S. STEM jobs and the number of the H-1B visa program participants.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

We’ll have to trust those in power to keep the balance so Americans aren’t hurt, and there in lies the problem.

A truer statement has never been uttered from the lips of man.

but a lot of the other entry level industries are something most Americans wouldn’t do.

Why would they when it's more profitable and a hell of a lot less strenuous to simply exist off of the government welfare system? Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society".

originally posted by: fringeofthefringe
if there are roughly, 50 million STEM jobs here in the US than 500 thousand of those STEM jobs doesn't seem much of an issue.

I guess it depends on what STEM area they are mostly in. I don't think they are spread evenly, so I would bet some areas have a very high saturation of them. Looking it up, Tech is about 50% and here are the top companies.

According to USCIS’ Data Hub, Amazon Services had the most total H-1B beneficiaries approved in FY 2022 a
t 12,444. Following are Tata Consultancy Services with 9,981, Google with 8,440, and Microsoft with 7,210.

The limit per year is 85,000 with around 250,000 extended, but can be changed, so in 2024 110,791 were accepted.

a reply to: charlest2

It’s certainly more profitable to undercut, and I think the construction industry is hit by that.

But even if we paid people who picked produce $20 an hour, they wouldn’t do it. I wouldn’t have done it when I was younger, I could find something slightly more skilled for the same pay (and I did). One of my first jobs was cleaning up after a roofing company. Then I moved into labor for logistics, and worked my way up over the years.

$20 an hour would get more Americans to do it, but we’re still the number one exporter in agricultural goods, partly because we’re blessed with a bread basket, and other areas that can grow produce year round.

This same debate was had over industrialization, and replacing manual jobs with machines. I imagine that debate will be had once we see AI and robots advance, and the implications more broad than just entry level/labor type jobs.

DB

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

This same debate was had over industrialization, and replacing manual jobs with machines. I imagine that debate will be had once we see AI and robots advance, and the implications more broad than just entry level/labor type jobs.

STEM are highly desired jobs. Picking is not... 2 to 3 million seasonal workers should be looked at. The difference would be seasonal workers would come for the season and then go home, where H1B come and stay

I think the problem is not the number of visa holders but the population they are drawn from.

If India is filled with extremely smart and talented and tolerant and hygienic people….why does India suck so much?
a reply to: fringeofthefringe

originally posted by: Athetos
I think the problem is not the number of visa holders but the population they are drawn from.

As in drawn from outside our country.

I know people can't watch something for 2 hours, much less 2 mins, but this is good. Sam Hyde rebuttal to Musk with Asmongold narrating.

I would agree with you. But I’d also take any country with primarily western values and principles . But that’s pretty hard to come by today I would say. Like 10-15 I would consider people from the UK but now I don’t think they would qualify. Even my own country Canada is pretty darn socialist and authoritarian.

a reply to: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Athetos
I think the problem is not the number of visa holders but the population they are drawn from.

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Maybe, based on data presented by the PDB podcast 75% of the H-1B visa participants are from India. Also mentioned in the podcast was that the college majors here in the US have shown a decline in that STEM fields and a raise in psychology majors. We need to emphasise our youth and college students the importance of the STEM majors and jobs available let alone pay. It is a matter of national security too. We need a massive incentivization of American youth to get more STEM majors, careers.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Absolutely, plus many of us see entry level jobs as stepping stones. STEM jobs are the finish line. I don’t want to minimize how impactful immigration can be to any sector, or society as a whole. I think people are just more aware of the debate around immigration and the jobs they take related to illegals, not high paying careers.

It’s hard to navigate, because many people make more than those who are in stem careers. Some people who own landscaping companies are very wealthy, some people who repair elevators make a killer wage, ect.