A whole lot of sketchy and erroneous information being reported about this crash. I suspect there are lots of deflections and obfuscations going on
also.
After trying to piece together some sensible sequence of events based on fragments so far, here are a couple interesting things which don't seem to be
being clearly reported.
1. It's beginning to look like JJA 2216 may have had two (2) go-arounds, not one as earlier reported. The first landing attempt was to the north on
Runway 01. This landing was aborted and a go-around was initiated. The reason for the abort seems to be reports of birds in the area of the
runway.
2. The second landing attempt was to the south (which is very odd) on RWY 19 (same pavement, just opposite direction). This 2nd landing attempt was
also aborted. Details get sketchy right here, but it sounds as though the reason this 2nd attempt was aborted was due to a "birdstrike" reported by
the pilots of JJA2216. The aircraft then banked left, made a 360 degree turn and attempted to make a 3rd approach to RWY 19. It was on this 3rd
attempt where the crash occurred.
3. There are pictures from a nearby hangar which show what appears to be a compressor stall on the #1 engine (right). This would support the theory
of a birdstrike (no birds are evident in that video, but it's not a great video so they might have been missed).
4. Prior to the first landing, JJA2216 was aligned for a straight-in approach to RWY 01 with a reported airspeed of 150 kts at an altitude of 500
feet. This would have only been possible if the flaps were already down, and the landing gear was also down. Minimum stall speed of a 737-800 with
no flaps is 200 kts. JJA2216 was 50 kts below this speed on their initial approach, thus below their flaps up stall speed.
5. There does not appear to be any data indicating airspeed, altitude or direction after the above report. However, they were cleared for landing in
the opposite direction (RWY 19). This was
before the pilots reported the birdstrike. This is important because it means they had already
turned 180 degrees and were returning to the same runway in the opposite direction. As noted previously, this is known as the "impossible turn" in
aviation. It would never be given as an instruction by ATC in any situation other than a dire emergency, and even then only as a last ditch "Any
runway" clearance by ATC. BUT...the birdstrike hadn't happened yet. So, what was the situation which caused this?
6. While there is no flightradar data for the 2nd and 3rd landing attempts, you can clearly see several things in the video of the crash. First, you
can clearly see there are no flaps deployed. So, given they were deployed at one point previous to this, it means they must have been retracted prior
to the 2nd approach. This would make sense for a full go-around procedure but that would have put them landing to the north again (not to the south).
In a catastrophic emergency the pilots would not retract the flaps if they were going to attempt an impossible turn return to the airfield; they'd
leave them down for the added lift needed to make the turn and prevent a stall.
Second, from the video, you can also see not only did they not have the flaps down, but they were also traveling at a very high rate of speed (above
200 kts), and you can see they touched down on the engine nacelles well down the runway, like at the midway point. The late touchdown would be
explained by them being too high after they made the 180 turn to return in the opposite direction, and zero degree flaps would explain the excessive
speed. BUT, why would they retract the flaps in such a scenario. It makes no sense. In other words...retract the flaps = full go-around, and
anything else = full crisis, massive failures and imminent crash likely with a 180 return (impossible turn). But again, remember, all of this was
going on
before the birdstrike was reported.
Now, it could be there was a delay in reporting the birdstrike..."Aviate, Navigate, then Communicate". However, how then did they get ATC to clear
them in the opposite direction without declaring something like an emergency. Again, it makes no sense.
edit on 30-12-2024 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)