Just some more fragments of data...
- The Pilot in Command (PIC) had nearly 7,000 hours, so certainly no rookie. Haven't seen anything stating if all those hours were in a 737, but he'd
been with Jeju for over 4 years. First Officer (FO) had 1,650 hours which is pretty low (very actually). No names have been released but that's kind
of irrelevant.
- Confirmed they did make two missed approaches before the crash on the 3rd attempt.
- The Missed Approach ('Go-around') procedure for RWY 19 is as follows... (I'll say it in plain English first, then in the aviation terms). After the
missed approach, they should have climbed to 5,000 feet on the runway heading until reaching an imaginary point called "JB451" and then turned 90
degrees to the right. After reaching another imaginary point called "JB452" (roughly 2 miles) they then should have executed another 90 degree right
turn (to the north) to a point called "GOBUN", then made another 90 degree right turn onto the runway heading at a point known as "GOANE" for another
landing attempt. They should have, in essence, circled the airfield around the west side and then attempted landing again. T
The actual aviation instructions are...Climb to 5,000 on track of 187 to the JB451 intersection. Right turn to 277 to JB452. Right turn to 007 to
GOBUN. From there, you’re either going to be making a left turn into a 10 mile orbit (penalty box), or vectored back into the pattern which will be
a right turn to 097 over to GOANE on the base leg, then right to 187 then cleared to land.
- I checked the localizer distance for compliance with FAA, ICAO and IATA Obstacle Free Zone (OFZ) and Runway Safety Area requirements and they are
1,000 feet after the runway end. I checked the measurement of the Muan airport distance to the Localizer berm. It was 800 feet (so, 200 feet short
of required). Interestingly, the FAA requires specifically state "No hazardous
humps or ruts". And what did they hit? A major 'hump'.
Additionally, these requirements vary somewhat, but those are generally the minimums.
- I confirmed JJA2216 (the flight in question) was in fact flying at 154 kts 6 minutes prior to arrival, and they were headed north on approach to RWY
01 (to the north), and they were at 500 above the ground (AGL). So, they definitely had their flaps down at some point. Stall speed for the aircraft
is 200 kts with no flaps. Prior to slowing to 154 kts 40 degrees of flaps (maximum) is required to prevent a stall. JJA2216 was clearly well in
excess of this speed at the time of the crash, and their flaps were not extended.
- ATC issued a bird strike warning at 6 minutes prior to landing. This may have prompted the 1st go-around.
- The pilots didn't call a bird strike until 1 minute prior to landing, about 5 minutes after the warning, and after having changed headings 180
degrees and approaching from the north to south.
- A local restaurant owner allegedly filmed 6 minutes of video which includes video of the crash from a different angle, and more importantly what
sounded (to him) like several loud "bangs". I have not been able to locate this video other than a few seconds which multiple news agencies are using
(but not the whole 6 minute video). These sounds were probably a compressor stall, perhaps from a bird strike. One possible explanation might be a
scenario where they had one bird strike, followed by a second bird strike later in the landing sequence, possibly in the.
About all I can conclude at this point is (until further information becomes available)... It's starting to look like they may have had multiple
failures all at once, and possibly more than one bird strike.
JJA2216 aborted their first approach to the north based on the ATC warning. ATC then must have directed them around to a downwind landing in the
opposite direction. They may have encountered a bird strike and compressor stall on the second landing attempt and, as they were climbing out for a
go-around after this first bird strike, then encountered a second bird strike possibly in the #2 (left) engine. This would have created a very dire
emergency situation indeed, especially low to the ground. This may have been what led to the sweeping left hand turn 360 degrees (which is the
opposite of the missed approach procedure for RWY 19).
Following this, the workload on the crew likely became unmanageable and there was insufficient time and/or altitude to reset the flaps and drop the
gear (manually). The radical turn would have likely led to them being very high in the 3rd approach, which would explain why their first contact with
the runway wasn't until nearly 4,000 feet past the threshold down the 9,000 foot runway. Because the flaps were up their airspeed was probably too
high to lower the gear (even manually), else they risked stalling, thus the high rate of speed when the engine nacelles did finally contact the
runway. The video shows the rest. The pilot was clearly keeping the nose up as long as possible to maintain control. But no amount of control would
have prevented the airframe from slamming into the giant berm which the localizer was built on and instantly being obliterated.
If that's what happened then the pilots likely did about everything they could. However, this is just a theory I've tried to put together trying to
explain all the strange facts and maneuvers. I can think of some other less favorable scenarios too, so take it with a grain of salt.
Just thought I'd share.
edit - Oh, and one other thing. There seems to be some confusion in many "news" reports of what the plane actually impacted. Let's clear this up.
There are two obstacles off the south end of RWY 19 an Muan. The first is a large earthen berm embanked around a reinforced concrete structure upon
which the Localizer antennas were mounted. This is what JJA2216 impacted causing it to disintegrate instantly. There is another "wall" which is
constructed of concrete blocks several hundred further feet south of this. This was not the wall JJA2216 impacted. Some of the wreckage slid into
this second wall, but the initial impact was to the berm supporting the localizer. A number of "news" sources are incorrectly reporting JJA2216
impacted this 2nd concrete block wall, and this is not correct. The aircraft would have plowed through the block wall like it wasn't even there. It
was the earthen berm to the north of this wall which caused the instantaneous and catastrophic destruction of the plane.
edit on 31-12-2024 by
Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)