Predictions for the result

a reply to: putnam6

To be fair, that’s probably a bad cycle to use as a benchmark.

My guess is there was a lot more mail in ballots, this year we’ll probably see more people just hit the booths the day of voting (especially since many employers will let you go vote).

Also, this is probably bad data to share the day before. Could mobilize opposition.

Trump loses the popular vote like he always does.

The election won't be called on election night.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: putnam6

To be fair, that’s probably a bad cycle to use as a benchmark.

My guess is there was a lot more mail in ballots, this year we’ll probably see more people just hit the booths the day of voting (especially since many employers will let you go vote).

Also, this is probably bad data to share the day before. Could mobilize opposition.

It's Rasmussen they are fairly legit and the info it's from a Democratic pollster ie it's already out there. Both sides have it already. As for exposure on ATS what's our active footprint now 500-750 maybe and a portion of those are those damn meddling Brits, Europeans,a smidgen of Aussies, and an allegedly one Russian.

and FWIW it seems to be an aggregate of all the voting so far, mail-in and early

Why do I suspect this,because it is approximately the same data seen on Georgia's voter page

sos.ga.gov...

originally posted by: jrod
270 268
Harris.

She pulls a win in Wisconsin, Michigan, and squeaks by in Pennsylvania with the Latino vote pulling her ahead.

Harris also wins the popular vote by close to 10 million.

Marco Rubio just spoke in Reading (largest Latino population Pennsylvania) to the Latino voters, in Spanish.
Good luck.

Millions of Americans buy in to: Over the past 4 years, I let people come into America illegally and kill Americans. Elect me President and watch what I'll do the next 4 years!

Seriously! 😟

a reply to: putnam6

Fair point on the exposure if it was a pre released poll.

I still think 2020 is an odd year for them to draw a comparison on. But ultimately, it’s not of much consequence.

a reply to: putnam6

Fair point on the exposure if it was a pre released poll.

I still think 2020 is an odd year for them to draw a comparison on. But ultimately, it’s not of much consequence.

Senator Fetterman(D-PA) says Trump's support in Pennsylvania is "astonishing".

Source: www.foxnews.com...

Democrat PACS are texting me in a major panic today over Pennsylvania not going Kamala's way.

It is not the people voting against Trump this time that will win it for the GOP. It is the amount of people who are not going to vote for Harris. A lot of people on that side of the aisle are not voting.

She will pull less than BIden did in 2020.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: putnam6

Fair point on the exposure if it was a pre released poll.

I still think 2020 is an odd year for them to draw a comparison on. But ultimately, it’s not of much consequence.

Im not sure I follow, and I always read your stuff. So this comes from a place of respect and to foster discussion.

Sure 2020 was unusual but data is data, and certain educated guesses can come from it.

Historically the left is better at mail-in and early voting while the right crushes the day of voting. This was certainly the case in 2020 and the mail-in and early vote likely won the election for them. Agree?

Not sure what you mean by pre-released poll


I think he knows

originally posted by: Vermilion

originally posted by: jrod
270 268
Harris.

She pulls a win in Wisconsin, Michigan, and squeaks by in Pennsylvania with the Latino vote pulling her ahead.

Harris also wins the popular vote by close to 10 million.

Marco Rubio just spoke in Reading (largest Latino population Pennsylvania) to the Latino voters, in Spanish.
Good luck.

True and factual

x.com...

and Rubio's entrance sounded like Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass

a reply to: putnam6

Sorry, let me see if I can clarify it.

I agree with you that the data itself being released probably won’t be impactful since other polls had shared the data (originally I stated that the tweet with this data might mobilize democrats. But I was under the impression this was internal data from the GOP campain).

As to why I think 2020 is a bad metric to compare early voting with, during COVID a lot of people either did early voting to avoid crowds, or mail in. So that cycle was probably more of an outlier.

I suggested maybe they use other cycles to compare to, but now that I think about it, early voting/mail in seems to be a newer thing all together. Back in the day I just remember almost everyone voting on Election Day.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Early Votes Cast in Swing States By election year

Arizona
2.2M 2024
2.5M 2020
1.7M 2016

Georgia
4M 2024
4M 2020
2.4M 2016

Michigan
3M 2024
2.8M 2020
1.1M 2016

Nevada
1.1M 2024
1.1M 2020
770.1K 2016

North Carolina
4.5M 2024
4.6M 2020
3.1M 2016

Pennsylvania
1.7M 2024
2.6M 2020
Unknown 2016

Wisconsin
1.5M 2024
1.9M 2020
797.7K 2016

Traditionally, early turnout is higher among Democrats than Republicans. However, of the 26 states for which registration data is available, only 14 are reporting more early votes from registered Democrats than registered Republicans as of Oct. 24.
www.kcra.com...

originally posted by: matafuchs
It is not the people voting against Trump this time that will win it for the GOP. It is the amount of people who are not going to vote for Harris. A lot of people on that side of the aisle are not voting.

She will pull less than BIden did in 2020.

She will pull less votes than Biden by at least 20m.
That doesn't mean she wont get 85-90m 'votes' , though , and break the record for most 'votes'.
It's 'votes' that count - not votes.

In fairness, Biden pulled less than Biden in 2020 too. a reply to: matafuchs

a reply to: Vermilion

Looks like there is a decent trend when we look at different cycles.

I was doing my own digging to make sure I wasn’t tripping as well. (I don’t really remember early voting being a prevalent thing in the past *pre 2020*).

In the 2000 general election, 40% of all voting-age citizens lived in states with at least one early-voting option. A July 2024 study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research found that nearly 97% of all voting-age citizens will live in states offering at least one option to vote before the 2024 election.[2] In the 2000 election, 14% of ballots were cast before Election Day. For 16 years the percentage increased steadily—21% in 2004, 31% in 2008, 33% in 2012, and 40% in 2016—before jumping to 69% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, then returning to the long-term trend with 50% in the 2022 midterm elections.[2]

Wikipedia, so grain of salt and all that

a reply to: Vermilion

Here's a MAP with percentages by state.

Last updated 11/4/2024 at 4pm ET: www.nbcnews.com...

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: putnam6

Sorry, let me see if I can clarify it.

I agree with you that the data itself being released probably won’t be impactful since other polls had shared the data (originally I stated that the tweet with this data might mobilize democrats. But I was under the impression this was internal data from the GOP campain).

As to why I think 2020 is a bad metric to compare early voting with, during COVID a lot of people either did early voting to avoid crowds, or mail in. So that cycle was probably more of an outlier.

I suggested maybe they use other cycles to compare to, but now that I think about it, early voting/mail in seems to be a newer thing all together. Back in the day I just remember almost everyone voting on Election Day.

Thanks for the clarification.

Im plugged into Georgia and the early vote while equal overall from 2020 to 2024, It is where the the early vote is coming from I looked and it just seems the "red" counties are significantly up on the early voting. Every county with an 80% or more turnout in Georgia voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I agree.
I found that the usual election turnout was 2-1 for voting on Election Day.
The charts I saw showed about 65-35 in favor of in person on Election Day.
If I find it again ill have to link it.
2020 was of course the Covid outlier.
From that chart I found, it seems like people are trending more toward voting early now.
I like it better than voting on Election Day myself. It took me about 8 minutes.

originally posted by: TinfoilTophat
Trump loses the popular vote like he always does.

The election won't be called on election night.

Republicans haven't won the popular vote since obama let the illegals flood in.