A Super Unscientific Poll

I have already said I believe in polls about as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy but this one is probably more believable than any other put out by the so-called experts. Elon Musk has been asked to conduct a poll via his X platform and here are the results so far.

X

Post

@elonmusk
Since a lot of people have asked, here goes a super unscientific poll …

Who will you vote for?
Trump
78.6%
Kamala
21.4%
1,130,478 votes
·
22 hours left
4:56 PM · Aug 20, 2024
·
7.2M
Views

So which poll do you believe more? The so-called scientific polls showing Trump leading by just 1% or 2%, or even trailing Communist Kamala, or this one?

Personally, I think Elon's most unscientific poll is probably closer to the truth and Trump is kicking Kamala's a$$.

a reply to: charlest2

We need a ink to the poll.

You know, to make it even more unscientific.

Never mind. I didn't catch the blue X first time around.

Thanks.

:

a reply to: charlest2

I trust the casinos the most. People wagering their money moves the odds, the book keepers don’t care.

At any given point it’s been a toss up with a variance of a few points.

Trump is his own worst enemy, and Kamala is the wrong person at the right place and time.

Dems are gonna vote dem, right gonna vote Trump. Independence and swing will decide it.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Nope.

Vote farming and vote counters will (D)ecide /rig the outcome

In the words of a (D)emocrat icon:

Interesting.

a reply to: Tolkien

Every election in the past few decades has been disputed. I don’t expect this one to be any different no matter who wins.

If Trump wins, it will be because of Russia. Kamala, Iran China.

Neither side will admit they ran a candidate no one was excited for outside their base.

Trump pisses people off on purpose, Kamala is just down right uninspiring. They’re both bottom of the barrel when you consider we’re a nation of 340m~ minds. We can do better, we should do better.

No polling is accurate any more, but what you are asking for is called Confirmation Bias.

When you hear something from a person you already trust, you tend to trust everything they say. Or when you only listen to sources that will tell you what you want to hear.

Asking whether you trust a poll that tells you exactly what you want to hear, even if it's not scientific, is also confirmation bias.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Tolkien
...
Trump pisses people off on purpose ...

That's called "trolling," and, frankly, it's probably the only the only tactic that has any hope of working on a demographic like the left that is completely lacking in self-awareness, unable to reason logically or thing cogently, and unwilling to engage with facts.

You know the old saying, You have to fight fire with fire.

Donald Trump is, indisputably, a demigod amongst the trollmeisters.

Here's one of my favourite trolls...



:

a reply to: CriticalStinker

There were plenty of shenanigans in the past to warrant disputes.
The massive vote tallies for one party in the middle of the night, hanging chads, double scanning boxes of hidden ballots, taping cardboard on the windows to keep people from seeing it etc.
Those can’t just be disregarded.

a reply to: AwakeNotWoke

That's called "trolling," and, frankly, it's probably the only the only tactic that has any hope of working on a demographic like the left that is completely lacking in self-awareness, unable to reason logically or thing cogently, and unwilling to engage with facts.

You’ve already lost if you think you can win them.

You’re going for swing and independent. Best to be likable.

I don’t think it’s a good look when people laugh about it and praise it, then act like victims when the media and other groups come back after him.

Obviously some of it is crossing the line like the political charges. But people just being critical of the first term policy or tactics after the failed 2020 run just get met with “TDS”. I’m sure it turns some of them off.

I’m rooting for Trump in this race to the bottom election, but he won’t get my vote since he was instrumental in the rise of inflation through reckless fiscal policy. Biden was just as bad if not worse sense he had time to measure the situation. But again, to me it’s just a bad situation.

originally posted by: Mahogani
No polling is accurate any more, but what you are asking for is called Confirmation Bias.

When you hear something from a person you already trust, you tend to trust everything they say. Or when you only listen to sources that will tell you what you want to hear.

Asking whether you trust a poll that tells you exactly what you want to hear, even if it's not scientific, is also confirmation bias.

That X poll is about as accurate a metric as we are ever going to get .

Twitter/X is a pure mixture of Left and Right people .

8.6 million votes. Donald at nearly 80% . That is the actual political feelings of America right now .

But I will say this I hope Elon Musk has some good security because they are going to be gunning for him now, He may have just crossed the line with the Deep State .

So why do you post polls if they are meaningless even to you?

a reply to: Mahogani

originally posted by: Athetos
So why do you post polls if they are meaningless even to you?

a reply to: Mahogani

He answered himself in the first sentence.

No polling is accurate any more, but what you are asking for is called Confirmation Bias.

A poll on X to me would tend to favor Trump. So I can say that could be bias too.

a reply to: AwakeNotWoke

NO Pollsters ask 8.6 million people what they think. That Musk poll is YUGE!

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: AwakeNotWoke

NO Pollsters ask 8.6 million people what they think. That Musk poll is YUGE!

The normal poll sampling is a thousand or so people on landlines.

So, yes, this is interesting.

originally posted by: Lumenari

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: AwakeNotWoke

NO Pollsters ask 8.6 million people what they think. That Musk poll is YUGE!

The normal poll sampling is a thousand or so people on landlines.

So, yes, this is interesting.

But none of this means a damn thing if SWING states are run by crooks who are anti-Trump. Michigan had more 2020 votes cast than there are registered voters. The Michigan Secretary of State and Governor and Attorney General said "that's not true!". Only one Michigan judge agreed there was fraud. His boss shut him up.

Thankfully, the RNC (Republican National Committee) is now run by HONEST MAGA Republicans. They filed a lawsuit against Michigan in March 2024 to get the voter rolls cleaned up.

Source: theconservativetreehouse.com... oticed-stuff/#more-254182

originally posted by: WeMustCare

originally posted by: Lumenari

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: AwakeNotWoke

NO Pollsters ask 8.6 million people what they think. That Musk poll is YUGE!

The normal poll sampling is a thousand or so people on landlines.

So, yes, this is interesting.

But none of this means a damn thing if SWING states are run by crooks who are anti-Trump. Michigan had more 2020 votes cast than there are registered voters. The Michigan Secretary of State and Governor and Attorney General said "that's not true!". Only one Michigan judge agreed there was fraud. His boss shut him up.

Thankfully, the RNC (Republican National Committee) is now run by HONEST MAGA Republicans. They filed a lawsuit against Michigan in March 2024 to get the voter rolls cleaned up.

Source: theconservativetreehouse.com... oticed-stuff/#more-254182

Oh, I know all that.

I posted on here in 2019 that Biden couldn't possibly win because although Democrats will normally cheat at a 7-8% rate in certain swing districts, they would have to do about 20% in the same districts to get Biden over the top and that was too much of a cheat to ignore.

I was quite wrong.

They DID do that and for the most part, it was ignored.

For Harris, they are going to have to up their game to 30-35% and have it be ignored.

Will it be this time?

~shrug~

a reply to: charlest2

If you can't trust the actual vote where there is a lot of stuff to try and ensure that it is a fair representation of the voters, and you imply that the actual vote is fraudulent, then how could you trust something as obviously partisan as a poll on a social media platform whose manager/owner openly promotes one particular candidate?