A Hypothetical Confrontation With China and Survivability Of The US Aircraft Carrier

Many here know I enjoy fooling around with Ask AI and I just finished another hypothetical war scenario involving the United States with 4 aircraft carrier battle groups within 500 nautical miles of mainland China. Admittedly, I had to revise and manipulate my questions to arrive at the conclusions I'll post here but in reality, the proposal I submitted is far too complex to accurately predict in any way an outcome such as I proposed.

The final scenario I proposed is,

how vulnerable are the us aircraft carriers to enemy attack and destruction? but what about hypersonic missile technology, to multiple warhead nuclear ballistic missile technology? Let's just hypothesize that the us stationed 4 carrier battle groups in or near enough to avoid inflight refuling of aircraft participating in an actual battle between the us and china, within 500 nautical miles of mainland china. What would be the likely potential outcome for those 4 carrier battle groups? Forget mutual deterrence, strategic stability, and crisis management mechanisms between major powers. We are already in a simulated war with china.

I am certainly not a military or naval aficionado of all things military so some here might provide other potential complexities to this scenario making it more complete or potentially precise in AI's results.

Ask AI's response is,

Vulnerability of US Aircraft Carriers to Enemy Attack and Destruction
The vulnerability of US aircraft carriers to enemy attack and destruction is a significant concern, particularly in the context of a hypothetical war with China.

US aircraft carriers are highly advanced and heavily defended, but they are not invincible. They are vulnerable to various types of attacks, including:

Anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs): China has developed the DF-21D and DF-26 ASBMs, which are specifically designed to target aircraft carriers. These missiles have a range of over 1,500 km and can travel at speeds of up to Mach 10.
Hypersonic missiles: China has also developed hypersonic missiles, such as the DF-ZF, which can travel at speeds of up to Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable, making them difficult to intercept.
Submarines: China has a large and advanced submarine fleet, which could potentially launch torpedo or missile attacks on US aircraft carriers.
Cyber attacks: US aircraft carriers rely heavily on advanced computer systems and networks, which are vulnerable to cyber attacks.
Hypothetical Scenario: 4 Carrier Battle Groups near Mainland China
Let’s assume that the US stations 4 carrier battle groups within 500 nautical miles of mainland China.

In this scenario, the Chinese military would likely employ a multi-pronged attack strategy to target the US aircraft carriers. This could include:

ASBM attacks: China could launch a salvo of ASBMs at the US aircraft carriers, attempting to overwhelm their defenses.
Hypersonic missile attacks: China could launch hypersonic missiles at the US aircraft carriers, taking advantage of their high speed and maneuverability.
Submarine attacks: Chinese submarines could launch torpedo or missile attacks on the US aircraft carriers.
Cyber attacks: China could launch cyber attacks on the US aircraft carriers’ computer systems and networks, attempting to disrupt their operations.
Likely Outcome for the 4 Carrier Battle Groups
In this hypothetical scenario, the likely outcome for the 4 carrier battle groups would be dire.

The US aircraft carriers would face a high risk of damage or destruction from the Chinese attacks. The ASBM and hypersonic missile attacks could potentially sink or severely damage one or more of the aircraft carriers. The submarine attacks could also inflict significant damage on the carriers. Additionally, the cyber attacks could disrupt the carriers’ operations, making them more vulnerable to attack.

The likely outcome would be:

1-2 aircraft carriers sunk or severely damaged
1-2 aircraft carriers moderately damaged
Significant loss of life and equipment
Disnruption of US naval operations in the region

Authoritative References Used:
The Naval War College Review
Jane’s Defence Weekly (Print)
The Journal of Strategic Studies

I don't think there is a chance in Hell of the United States getting into a pissing contest with China over Taiwan. It would be pure stupid insanity to do so.


In summary, I have come to believe the United States is a bully with a glass jaw running an elaborate bluff on the rest of the world at this point. An elaborate and expensive con game.

a reply to: charlest2

I don't think there is a chance in Hell of the United States getting into a pissing contest with China over Taiwan.

But it sure makes for good propaganda to ramp up the fear factor whenever needed!

a reply to: charlest2

" In summary, I have come to believe the United States is a bully with a glass jaw running an elaborate bluff on the rest of the world at this point. An elaborate and expensive con game. "


The question is Moot . Space Based Weapon Systems Rule the Earth Right Now . Aircraftcarriers are the Battleships of the 1950's and are pretty much Obsolete,,,,,,,,,

a reply to: Zanti Misfit

Aircraftcarriers are the Battleships of the 1950's and are pretty much Obsolete,,,,,,,,,

So true. War is obsolete....

After consideration, I don't think space-based weapons systems would have much impact on protecting our resources in such a scenario. Far too limited in scope and numbers.

a reply to: charlest2

In summary, I have come to believe the United States is a bully with a glass jaw running an elaborate bluff on the rest of the world at this point. An elaborate and expensive con game.

America bad.

Russia China based.

a reply to: CriticalStinker



You said it! I didn't!


US good! US government bad!
US government royally sucks!

a reply to: charlest2

US good! US government bad!

Sure, in a domestic context.

I’ll take our government over CCP any day of the weak though.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

You'll probably vote for the geriatric vegetable again too.

originally posted by: charlest2
a reply to: CriticalStinker

You'll probably vote for the geriatric vegetable again too.

I’ve never voted for a democrat for president.

But I also don’t pretend that authoritarian governments are better than the west just because my team didn’t win.

Many on the right act patriotic until their guy doesn’t win, then all of a sudden the military is weak. Then they pretend anything that took decades to transpire is suddenly the result of the last three years of bad domestic politics.

It’s generic talking points that are abundant in punditry. Anyone who tries to view the world in a broader context outside of our domestic politics are suddenly brainwashed.

But I suppose my favorite is “anyone who doesn’t agree with me is a liberal”. This one is the most ironic coming from a side who’s president racked up about as much debt in half the time as Obama, fast tracked the vax while shielding pharma from lawsuits, and cheered on near zero interest rates which made real estate parabolic.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

This has nothing to do with politics.

You are diverging from the post. Quit trolling the post.

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
Aircraftcarriers are the Battleships of the 1950's and are pretty much Obsolete,,,,,,,,,

Don't think of a modern carrier as a carrier, think of it as a base.

And losing a US base with 4500 service personnel isn't the kind of escalation anybody wants.

a reply to: charlest2


The united states government is a state sponsor of terrorism...and in fact the single most effective creator of terrorists the whole world round...according to plan...

This keeps the money lenders and the weapons makers flush...and in control of the narrative...

The Uniparty in bed with the deep state...insures the continuation of confrontational policy in the form of direct conflict...covert action...hybrid warfare...sanctions...and color revolutions...all cloaked under the auspices of a hollow appeal to democratic reformation...rules based order...and freedom...

The simple minded greater unwashed of the world swallow these platitudes like manna...they never seem to be able to comprehend their pawn like nature...and continually jerk at the end of the marionettes strings...

These greater unwashed...who are unfortunately the vast majority of the populations in the world...and indeed on this website...have fallen under the sway of propaganda...posing as virtuous patriotism...and continually feed from the trough of the MSM and the dictates of their betters...

"Useful idiots"...as Rush Limbaugh was want to label them...

I would round that descriptor to it's logical conclusion...and simply describe them as..."useless idiots"...

What use does any thinking entity have for..."skulls full of mush"...frothing at the mouth in partisan...righteous...indignation...

So...there is that...






YouSir

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

originally posted by: charlest2
a reply to: CriticalStinker

You'll probably vote for the geriatric vegetable again too.

But I also don’t pretend that authoritarian governments are better than the west

Ummm...in case you hadn't noticed...the west...and especially the US...are authoritarian governments...

Do I really need to do your homework for you...so that you can get up to speed on reality...?



Yousir

originally posted by: charlest2
a reply to: CriticalStinker

This has nothing to do with politics.

You are diverging from the post. Quit trolling the post.

Who went there?

You'll probably vote for the geriatric vegetable again too.

a reply to: YouSir

You're right on all counts but this post wasn't meant for political discussion per se. It was meant to foster discussion about our military aspirations, or objectives around the world, more specifically in the Pacific against a formidable Chinese confrontation and the foolishness of even contemplating it.

But carry on. Something our government fails to realize is that discussion is always better than outright military confrontation from the get-go.

a reply to: YouSir

Ummm...in case you hadn't noticed...the west...and especially the US...are authoritarian governments...

While I’d like to see a more libertarian trajectory… I think the CCP has us beat by leaps and bounds on authoritarianism.

a reply to: charlest2

Artificial intelligence is dumber than our U.S. president, to be honest.

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: charlest2

Artificial intelligence is dumber than our U.S. president, to be honest.

Only smart part about AI so far is they coded it to find certain patterns of controversy so that it gets engagement.

So long as it fits the right PC parameters.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

You say libertairian but do conflate libertairian with progressivism? Screw progressivism.

Get back on topic, please. Political bantering has been well overdone on this site, with nothing accomplished on either side of that debate.