Vladimir Putin Ready to 'Freeze' War in Ukraine With Ceasefire

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

So basically a ceasefire is off the table. I know, I know, "We can have a ceasefire if Russia gets out of Ukraine," but back in the real world that's not happening, so a ceasefire is effectively off the table.

Why not? The conflict is costing Russia far more than the west.

The US withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin has stayed in power on the back of improving living standards and military successes. With the suppression of reporting in Russia we really don't know what the internal impact of failure in Ukraine (and it absolutely is a faliure) will be.

This has been going on for more than 2 years by now. If this failure was going to result in Putin's downfall, it would have already. In 2022, when this started, there were people predicting he'd be gone by the end of the year.

Whether you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine is irrelevant. What I'm talking about is whether he will or not. And he hasn't shown any indication that he's gonna. And that's the only way the West has signaled they'd accept a ceasefire. So a ceasefire is effectively off the table until the West's calculus changes, which as I said will only happen when voters get tired enough of this.

How long war Russia in Afghanistan? The US in vietnam?

Yeah, what about those? Russia was in a quagmire in Afghanistan for 10 years. Were any of their leaders in that time deposed because of their failure there? No.

The US in Vietnam is rather meaningless because we're a democracy. Voters could drive a President out of power by simply voting. We're talking about whether Putin will be forcibly removed from power. I think if it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. The largest bullet in that gun was Prigozhin, and his attempt was barely a whimper.

There's also the matter of whether this is even seen as a failure in Russia. In the West, we see it as a failure because we've been told Putin intended to invade and conquer the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks at most. But how much of that Western narrative is making it into Russia? I have no idea. Putin didn't tell his people this would be over in a few days or weeks though. To my knowledge, he has given no timeline on it. Nor has he declared to his people that he intends to conquer Ukraine.

Getting reliable information about the sentiments of the Russian people is very difficult. I've seen that they're fed up with the invasion and with Western sanctions. I've also seen that they are rallying together against what they see as Western oppression. Which of those is most accurate? Which narrative represents the majority of Russian citizens? Again, I have no idea. But a majority of negative public sentiment isn't necessarily what you need to depose a dictator.

Actually we were talking about if Russia would withdraw, that may be under Putin (willingly or not) or maybe under his successor. Just saying it would already have happened if it was going to doesn't make it true.

I think the declining living standards and casualties for no real gain will make it seem like a failure. Propaganda can only hide that fact for so long.

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

So basically a ceasefire is off the table. I know, I know, "We can have a ceasefire if Russia gets out of Ukraine," but back in the real world that's not happening, so a ceasefire is effectively off the table.

Why not? The conflict is costing Russia far more than the west.

The US withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin has stayed in power on the back of improving living standards and military successes. With the suppression of reporting in Russia we really don't know what the internal impact of failure in Ukraine (and it absolutely is a faliure) will be.

This has been going on for more than 2 years by now. If this failure was going to result in Putin's downfall, it would have already. In 2022, when this started, there were people predicting he'd be gone by the end of the year.

Whether you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine is irrelevant. What I'm talking about is whether he will or not. And he hasn't shown any indication that he's gonna. And that's the only way the West has signaled they'd accept a ceasefire. So a ceasefire is effectively off the table until the West's calculus changes, which as I said will only happen when voters get tired enough of this.

How long war Russia in Afghanistan? The US in vietnam?

Yeah, what about those? Russia was in a quagmire in Afghanistan for 10 years. Were any of their leaders in that time deposed because of their failure there? No.

The US in Vietnam is rather meaningless because we're a democracy. Voters could drive a President out of power by simply voting. We're talking about whether Putin will be forcibly removed from power. I think if it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. The largest bullet in that gun was Prigozhin, and his attempt was barely a whimper.

There's also the matter of whether this is even seen as a failure in Russia. In the West, we see it as a failure because we've been told Putin intended to invade and conquer the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks at most. But how much of that Western narrative is making it into Russia? I have no idea. Putin didn't tell his people this would be over in a few days or weeks though. To my knowledge, he has given no timeline on it. Nor has he declared to his people that he intends to conquer Ukraine.

Getting reliable information about the sentiments of the Russian people is very difficult. I've seen that they're fed up with the invasion and with Western sanctions. I've also seen that they are rallying together against what they see as Western oppression. Which of those is most accurate? Which narrative represents the majority of Russian citizens? Again, I have no idea. But a majority of negative public sentiment isn't necessarily what you need to depose a dictator.

Actually we were talking about if Russia would withdraw

Yeah and that led to a discussion about the circumstances under which Russia would withdraw. Were you seriously unable to follow that? Go back and reread the last few posts between us.

a reply to: BedevereTheWise

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin is no Gorbachev.

Putin has already announced that he's not going to negotiate with Zelensky, knowing very well that the martial law imposed in Ukraine is a result of nothing else than the Russian invasion. So he's not really interested in peace talks. Neither does he merely want a piece of Ukraine.

What he wants is to turn Ukraine into another Belarus, to have yet another vassal state ruled by a puppet president.

So for now on, the negotiations are off the table. We don't know what the future will bring. It's speculation at this point.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

So basically a ceasefire is off the table. I know, I know, "We can have a ceasefire if Russia gets out of Ukraine," but back in the real world that's not happening, so a ceasefire is effectively off the table.

Why not? The conflict is costing Russia far more than the west.

The US withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin has stayed in power on the back of improving living standards and military successes. With the suppression of reporting in Russia we really don't know what the internal impact of failure in Ukraine (and it absolutely is a faliure) will be.

This has been going on for more than 2 years by now. If this failure was going to result in Putin's downfall, it would have already. In 2022, when this started, there were people predicting he'd be gone by the end of the year.

Whether you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine is irrelevant. What I'm talking about is whether he will or not. And he hasn't shown any indication that he's gonna. And that's the only way the West has signaled they'd accept a ceasefire. So a ceasefire is effectively off the table until the West's calculus changes, which as I said will only happen when voters get tired enough of this.

How long war Russia in Afghanistan? The US in vietnam?

Yeah, what about those? Russia was in a quagmire in Afghanistan for 10 years. Were any of their leaders in that time deposed because of their failure there? No.

The US in Vietnam is rather meaningless because we're a democracy. Voters could drive a President out of power by simply voting. We're talking about whether Putin will be forcibly removed from power. I think if it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. The largest bullet in that gun was Prigozhin, and his attempt was barely a whimper.

There's also the matter of whether this is even seen as a failure in Russia. In the West, we see it as a failure because we've been told Putin intended to invade and conquer the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks at most. But how much of that Western narrative is making it into Russia? I have no idea. Putin didn't tell his people this would be over in a few days or weeks though. To my knowledge, he has given no timeline on it. Nor has he declared to his people that he intends to conquer Ukraine.

Getting reliable information about the sentiments of the Russian people is very difficult. I've seen that they're fed up with the invasion and with Western sanctions. I've also seen that they are rallying together against what they see as Western oppression. Which of those is most accurate? Which narrative represents the majority of Russian citizens? Again, I have no idea. But a majority of negative public sentiment isn't necessarily what you need to depose a dictator.

Actually we were talking about if Russia would withdraw

Yeah and that led to a discussion about the circumstances under which Russia would withdraw. Were you seriously unable to follow that? Go back and reread the last few posts between us.

That's only one possible option leading to Russian withdrawal. The discussion was based on your comment that they wouldn't.

As you pointed out yourself we don't really know Russian sentiment about Putin so why would we believe he is immune to being removed by any means or being in a position of being forced to withdraw to stay in power?

originally posted by: twistedpuppy
a reply to: BedevereTheWise

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin is no Gorbachev.

Putin has already announced that he's not going to negotiate with Zelensky, knowing very well that the martial law imposed in Ukraine is a result of nothing else than the Russian invasion. So he's not really interested in peace talks. Neither does he merely want a piece of Ukraine.

What he wants is to turn Ukraine into another Belarus, to have yet another vassal state ruled by a puppet president.

So for now on, the negotiations are off the table. We don't know what the future will bring. It's speculation at this point.

He certainly isnt but what Putin wants and what he is able to get are two different things.

There seems to be a view amongst some posters that the only possible end to the war is the withdrawal of western support to Ukraine. That ignores the massive cost to Russia of this conflict.

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

So basically a ceasefire is off the table. I know, I know, "We can have a ceasefire if Russia gets out of Ukraine," but back in the real world that's not happening, so a ceasefire is effectively off the table.

Why not? The conflict is costing Russia far more than the west.

The US withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin has stayed in power on the back of improving living standards and military successes. With the suppression of reporting in Russia we really don't know what the internal impact of failure in Ukraine (and it absolutely is a faliure) will be.

This has been going on for more than 2 years by now. If this failure was going to result in Putin's downfall, it would have already. In 2022, when this started, there were people predicting he'd be gone by the end of the year.

Whether you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine is irrelevant. What I'm talking about is whether he will or not. And he hasn't shown any indication that he's gonna. And that's the only way the West has signaled they'd accept a ceasefire. So a ceasefire is effectively off the table until the West's calculus changes, which as I said will only happen when voters get tired enough of this.

How long war Russia in Afghanistan? The US in vietnam?

Yeah, what about those? Russia was in a quagmire in Afghanistan for 10 years. Were any of their leaders in that time deposed because of their failure there? No.

The US in Vietnam is rather meaningless because we're a democracy. Voters could drive a President out of power by simply voting. We're talking about whether Putin will be forcibly removed from power. I think if it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. The largest bullet in that gun was Prigozhin, and his attempt was barely a whimper.

There's also the matter of whether this is even seen as a failure in Russia. In the West, we see it as a failure because we've been told Putin intended to invade and conquer the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks at most. But how much of that Western narrative is making it into Russia? I have no idea. Putin didn't tell his people this would be over in a few days or weeks though. To my knowledge, he has given no timeline on it. Nor has he declared to his people that he intends to conquer Ukraine.

Getting reliable information about the sentiments of the Russian people is very difficult. I've seen that they're fed up with the invasion and with Western sanctions. I've also seen that they are rallying together against what they see as Western oppression. Which of those is most accurate? Which narrative represents the majority of Russian citizens? Again, I have no idea. But a majority of negative public sentiment isn't necessarily what you need to depose a dictator.

Actually we were talking about if Russia would withdraw

Yeah and that led to a discussion about the circumstances under which Russia would withdraw. Were you seriously unable to follow that? Go back and reread the last few posts between us.

That's only one possible option leading to Russian withdrawal. The discussion was based on your comment that they wouldn't.

As you pointed out yourself we don't really know Russian sentiment about Putin so why would we believe he is immune to being removed by any means or being in a position of being forced to withdraw to stay in power?

What I was talking about with the sentiments of the Russian populace is an entirely different matter to what the people who are in a position to oust Putin think.

If this was the unmitigated disaster to Russia that the Western narrative says it is, anyone who is in a position to get rid of Putin would've done so already. What would their motivation be to let him keep running Russia off a cliff? Either it's not the disastrous run off the cliff that we think it is, or no one is in a position to do anything about it.

Back on topic, there's no indication that Russia is going to be pulling out of Ukraine anytime soon, and that is the only condition the West says they'll negotiate under, so a ceasefire is off the table for now.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: BedevereTheWise
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

So basically a ceasefire is off the table. I know, I know, "We can have a ceasefire if Russia gets out of Ukraine," but back in the real world that's not happening, so a ceasefire is effectively off the table.

Why not? The conflict is costing Russia far more than the west.

The US withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

The Soviet Union withdrew from Afhganistan.

Putin has stayed in power on the back of improving living standards and military successes. With the suppression of reporting in Russia we really don't know what the internal impact of failure in Ukraine (and it absolutely is a faliure) will be.

This has been going on for more than 2 years by now. If this failure was going to result in Putin's downfall, it would have already. In 2022, when this started, there were people predicting he'd be gone by the end of the year.

Whether you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine is irrelevant. What I'm talking about is whether he will or not. And he hasn't shown any indication that he's gonna. And that's the only way the West has signaled they'd accept a ceasefire. So a ceasefire is effectively off the table until the West's calculus changes, which as I said will only happen when voters get tired enough of this.

How long war Russia in Afghanistan? The US in vietnam?

Yeah, what about those? Russia was in a quagmire in Afghanistan for 10 years. Were any of their leaders in that time deposed because of their failure there? No.

The US in Vietnam is rather meaningless because we're a democracy. Voters could drive a President out of power by simply voting. We're talking about whether Putin will be forcibly removed from power. I think if it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. The largest bullet in that gun was Prigozhin, and his attempt was barely a whimper.

There's also the matter of whether this is even seen as a failure in Russia. In the West, we see it as a failure because we've been told Putin intended to invade and conquer the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks at most. But how much of that Western narrative is making it into Russia? I have no idea. Putin didn't tell his people this would be over in a few days or weeks though. To my knowledge, he has given no timeline on it. Nor has he declared to his people that he intends to conquer Ukraine.

Getting reliable information about the sentiments of the Russian people is very difficult. I've seen that they're fed up with the invasion and with Western sanctions. I've also seen that they are rallying together against what they see as Western oppression. Which of those is most accurate? Which narrative represents the majority of Russian citizens? Again, I have no idea. But a majority of negative public sentiment isn't necessarily what you need to depose a dictator.

Actually we were talking about if Russia would withdraw

Yeah and that led to a discussion about the circumstances under which Russia would withdraw. Were you seriously unable to follow that? Go back and reread the last few posts between us.

That's only one possible option leading to Russian withdrawal. The discussion was based on your comment that they wouldn't.

As you pointed out yourself we don't really know Russian sentiment about Putin so why would we believe he is immune to being removed by any means or being in a position of being forced to withdraw to stay in power?

What I was talking about with the sentiments of the Russian populace is an entirely different matter to what the people who are in a position to oust Putin think.

If this was the unmitigated disaster to Russia that the Western narrative says it is, anyone who is in a position to get rid of Putin would've done so already. What would their motivation be to let him keep running Russia off a cliff? Either it's not the disastrous run off the cliff that we think it is, or no one is in a position to do anything about it.

Back on topic, there's no indication that Russia is going to be pulling out of Ukraine anytime soon, and that is the only condition the West says they'll negotiate under, so a ceasefire is off the table for now.

Putins invasion has had a very real and negative impact on the life styles a lot of rich and powerfull Russians.

The impact of declining living standards and heavy casualties is also going to be felt by a lot of ordinary Russians.

Putin has been popular and secure in Russia for a long time but there is no guarantee that will remain the case as the war goes on.

Also if it becomes politically expedient before it comes to him lossing power he may make the decision to withdraw (while framing it as a victory against NAZIs or blaming NATO) I think Putin is driven far more by a pragmatic need to stay in control than by any real ideology about a greater Russia.

a reply to: cherokeetroy

Russia has been skelping Kyiv with cruise missile salvos since the start of Putin's ""special military operation"".

What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander.

a reply to: andy06shake

Yes. The difference is that Ukraine targets military targets, Russia targets DIY stores and civilians.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: cherokeetroy

Russia has been skelping Kyiv with cruise missile salvos since the start of Putin's ""special military operation"".

What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander.

Exactly. Why should Ukraine operate under more restrictive rules than Russia (which is the aggressor)

a reply to: andy06shake

Let's Goooooo!!

a reply to: cherokeetroy

Let's not!

I think Putin slowly moving towards a cease fire has more to do with money than anything else...

www.express.co.uk...

The changes represent the largest change to the Russian tax system in decades and suggest there is a growing awareness that Putin's "special operation" is unlikely to conclude soon.

Moscow ramped up military spending since the start of the war but experts have warned Russia won't be able to keep on relying on its export income to fund the conflict.

Swedish bank SEB's chief emerging-markets strategist, Erik Meyersoon, told The Wall Street Journal: "Given the runaway spending on the military-industrial complex, the government cannot solely rely on resource exports."

The tax hike also represents a major challenge to Putin's efforts to keep public opinion on his side as a vast majority of Russians have suffered considerable economic problems since the invasion of Ukraine began.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

We're too invested. No turning back, now.

What many people fail to recognize is we are headed into a new, global economy. We're in the midst of the digital revolution. Everything will be switched to digital/Blockchain, automated and controlled by artificial intelligence. Robots, virtual reality, augmented reality, quantum computing. It's already here. We're transitioning now.

a reply to: cherokeetroy

Can we not just do something else and say we did?

a reply to: cherokeetroy

You'd love some William Gibson books. Recommend Necromancer:

www.goodreads.com...

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: cherokeetroy

You'd love some William Gibson books. Recommend Necromancer:

www.goodreads.com...

You can always tell...the ones least adaptable to change are the last to know.

a reply to: cherokeetroy

What on Earth is that supposed to mean?