October 7th: The Crumbling Facade of a Western Security Asset

originally posted by: BrucellaOrchitis

originally posted by: network dude
but what did the OP actually state as a new revalation?

Nothing new at all. But they put forth a perspective grounded in reason, though not evidentially framed, therefore formulating a debate position. Other participants in this thread have merely trolled the OP with emotional and reactionary responses.

The position of the OP has not yet been challenged by a counter, thereby the OP has already won the debate. The rest of you, seemingly, have forgotten how debating works. Which is kind of funny in itself - but that's a story for another time.

well if that's a "win" then I suppose the rules have changed. I did ask a question that follows right along with this discussion. But it's not an easy one to answer, and usually results in folks scmpering away like little bitches.

Care to take a shot at it?

originally posted by: 19Bones79
a reply to: BrucellaOrchitis

Other participants in this thread have merely trolled the OP with emotional and reactionary responses.

The conservatives have adopted BAMN and cancel culture purely because of Israel. It was their emotional trigger.

It stands to reason that they start acting in an irrational way similar to those they ridicule for doing exactly the same thing.

that's kind of a cop out. Discuss this from a logical rational perspective and lead by example.

There are some propoganda tag lines that are being used to convalute this discussion.

It's not a Genocide, Of the 30,000 killed in Gaza, some of them were enemy combatants. When you have a number for that, we can discuss the genocide you speak of.

Israel has done bad things in the past, other nations have as well. Should we make lists, compare, and rate each nation from best to worst based on that list? If not, then by what metric should we discuss this current conflict? (that's a tough one for those driven by emotion)

I look forward to your thoughful response NOT driven by emotion.

From the opening post I could tell this was AI, I don't debate machines or people. I argue which way more satisfying. BigRedStupidHead or whatever it's name is clearly an agenda/propaganda pusher. Listen friend the debate ended a while ago we've all chosen are sides and you are not going to change any minds here no matter how bad you want to.

originally posted by: BrucellaOrchitis

originally posted by: network dude
but what did the OP actually state as a new revalation?

Nothing new at all. But they put forth a perspective grounded in reason, though not evidentially framed, therefore formulating a debate position. Other participants in this thread have merely trolled the OP with emotional and reactionary responses.

The position of the OP has not yet been challenged by a counter, thereby the OP has already won the debate. The rest of you, seemingly, have forgotten how debating works. Which is kind of funny in itself - but that's a story for another time.

That was my impression as well. I don't see much debate happening around the Israel stuff.

originally posted by: network dude
Of the 30,000 killed in Gaza, ...

... CLAIMED by Hamas to be killed.
The numbers don't work for what they claim.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

YES, noncombatants have died in Gaza. But they die in every war. What we DO know is that the numbers Hamas have given are fake. The true number will never be known.

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ...

World War II - 50,000,000 Dead

World War I - 40,000,000 Dead

Vietnam War - 1,353,000 Dead

Korea War - 525,000 Dead, over 1 Million Missing

Iraq War - Over 1 Million Associated Deaths

Iran/Iraq War - 500,000 Iraqi dead and 750,000 Iranian dead

a reply to: FlyersFan

If Hamas isn't eradicated, those noncombatants died for nothing. So really there's no choice except to finish the war. BAMN

With that said... Israel should do the finishing. They absolutely can. They have more than enough resources to do their own laundry without the nanny state stepping in to supervise or micromanage or any such malarkey. Let the UN play that game while US focuses on internal affairs which is what our leadership was appointed to do. We are NOT world police.

a reply to: FlyersFan

In December, the medical journal The Lancet, published two critiques of the death surveillance process done by extremely experienced scholars at Johns Hopkins and The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Both concluded that the Gazan numbers were plausible and credible, albeit by somewhat different techniques and logic.
The science is clear. Over 30.000 people have been dead in Palestine.

We analysed an individual list of 7028 decedents released by the Palestinian MoH2 covering the period from Oct 7 to 1500 h on Oct 26, 2023, and which, according to the source, only featured individuals brought to health facilities and morgues. This list included national identification numbers, names, and ages, but no cause, date, or location of death.
Our initial examination suggested reasonable data quality.

These comparisons further corroborate the validity of the Palestinian MoH dataset. Similarly, satellite imagery-based estimates conducted by Sky News analysis of NASA Open Street Maps of the percentage of buildings damaged in Gaza mirror those issued by the Gaza Ministry of Public Works (7% according to both sources).

Our simple analysis indicates high excess mortality among Gazan population groups that are likely to be largely civilian, including humanitarian and health-care workers, indicating a substantial number of Palestinians killed during this period. Assessments of Palestinian MoH data validity in the 2014 conflict had shown them to be accurate, and we saw no obvious reason to doubt the validity of the data between Oct 7 and Oct 26, 2023.
Excess mortality in Gaza: Oct 7–26, 2023

"We think they're very high, frankly," Barbara Leaf, assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, told a House Foreign Affairs Committee, "and it could be that they're even higher than are being cited."

It stands in stark contrast to the view of Mr Biden himself, who, on 25 October, said he had "no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed."

However, he did not provide any evidence for his scepticism.
How the dead are counted in Gaza?

The ministry is the only official source for Gaza casualties. Israel has sealed Gaza’s borders, barring foreign journalists and humanitarian workers. The AP is among a small number of international news organizations with teams in Gaza. While those journalists cannot do a comprehensive count, they’ve viewed large numbers of bodies at the sites of airstrikes, morgues and funerals.

“The numbers may not be perfectly accurate on a minute-to-minute basis,” said Michael Ryan, of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program. “But they largely reflect the level of death and injury.”

In previous wars, the ministry’s counts have held up to U.N. scrutiny, independent investigations and even Israel’s tallies.

on Oct. 27, in response to U.S. doubts over its figures, the ministry released a 212-page report listing every Palestinian killed in the war so far, including their names, ID numbers, ages and gender. A copy of the report shared with the AP named 6,747 Palestinians and said an additional 281 bodies have not yet been identified.

Throughout four wars and numerous bloody skirmishes between Israel and Hamas, U.N. agencies have cited the Health Ministry’s death tolls in regular reports. The International Committee of the Red Cross and Palestinian Red Crescent also use the numbers.

In the aftermath of war, the U.N. humanitarian office has published final death tolls based on its own research into medical records.

In all cases the U.N.'s counts have largely been consistent with the Gaza Health Ministry’s, with small discrepancies.
WHAT IS THE TRACK RECORD FROM PAST WARS?

Other points of view, from various sources and estudies

a reply to: Albone

I guess it’s now momala 😂😂😂😂

a reply to: FlyersFan

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ...

Could you also give us a reminder of how many "UN civilians, civilian journalists, civilian doctors, civilian teachers or humanitarian aid civilians were killed in those wars you mention?"

a reply to: HopeForTheFuture

Does that include the Palestinians taken out by Hamas and Terrorist rockets like the 500 killed as reported by the Palestinian Authority at al-Ahli Arab Hospital by a misfired Gaza Rocket. Or the numbers inflated?

a reply to: HopeForTheFuture

Be more alive if Hamas would surrender instead of cowering in Hospitals and civilian infrastructure.

originally posted by: HopeForTheFuture
a reply to: FlyersFan

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ...

Could you also give us a reminder of how many "UN civilians, civilian journalists, civilian doctors, civilian teachers or humanitarian aid civilians were killed in those wars you mention?"

do you meant the ones who entered an active war Zone?

originally posted by: HopeForTheFuture
a reply to: FlyersFan

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ...

Could you also give us a reminder of how many "UN civilians, civilian journalists, civilian doctors, civilian teachers or humanitarian aid civilians were killed in those wars you mention?"

Generally, more civilians die in every war than trained service members. Including the ones you mentioned. That's kind of what war is, indiscriminate devastation that punishes the entire population except for the few privileged MFers signing orders and buying bullets.

a reply to: HopeForTheFuture

The math disagrees with your magazines 'science'.
So does common sense.

Hamas ... the mass murdering/mass raping terrorists who claimed Israel airbombed
a hospital in Gaza and killed 500 civilians ... and it turns out that one of their own
rockets fell into the parking lot and killed 50 people.

Those are the bastards you proudly align yourself with.
Comical.

originally posted by: HopeForTheFuture
Could you also give us a reminder of how many ...

How about YOU tell us how many Hamas terrorists have died in the war.
You keep running away from that. You can't answer that, can ya'.
Yeah .. didn't think so. COMICAL.

Now Hamas admits that 1/3 of the numbers they have given out as 'dead civilians' can't be verified in any way and they may even be made up (no surprise there).

Federation for the Defense of Democracies

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said on April 6 that it had “incomplete data” for 11,371 of the 33,091 Palestinian fatalities it claims to have documented. In a statistical report, the ministry notes that it considers an individual record to be incomplete if it is missing any of the following key data points: identity number, full name, date of birth, or date of death. The health ministry also released a report on April 3 that acknowledged the presence of incomplete data but did not define what it meant by “incomplete.” In that earlier report, the ministry acknowledged the incompleteness of 12,263 records. It is unclear why, after just three more days, the number fell to 11,371 — a decrease of more than 900 records.

Prior to its admissions of incomplete data, the health ministry asserted that the information in more than 15,000 fatality records had stemmed from “reliable media sources.” However, the ministry never identified the sources in question and Gaza has no independent media.

“The sudden shifts in the ministry’s reporting methods suggest it is scrambling to prevent exposure of its shoddy work. For months, U.S. media have taken for granted that the ministry’s top-line figure for casualties was reliable enough to include in daily updates on the war. Even President Biden has cited its numbers. Now we’re seeing that a third or more of the ministry’s data may be incomplete at best — and fictional at worst.” — David Adesnik, Senior Fellow and Director of Research

“It is important to recognize that Hamas is deeply invested in shaping the narrative that emerges from Gaza, particularly regarding the number of casualties in the war. Moreover, this control of data extends beyond the statistics provided by the Hamas-controlled health ministry, as there is also a deliberate effort to downplay the number of terrorists who have been killed by Israel in the war, potentially numbering more than 10,000.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

Wall Street Journal - Hamas Numbers Game with "Civilian" Death Counts and Casualty Data

Foundation for the Defense of Democracies - 5 Things to Know About the Hamas Run Gaza "Health Ministry'

The recent Al-Ahli incident further undermines the ministry’s credibility
On October 16, 2023, media outlets around the world reported rapid claims made by the Gaza Health Ministry that Israeli missiles struck the al-Ahli hospital, killing around 500 Palestinians. The U.S. intelligence community assessed that a Palestinian rocket likely caused the damage and estimated that 100 to 300 people died at the hospital, while a European official put that figure at below 50. The Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, among others, later revised their coverage and reported that evidence strongly favored a Palestinian rocket as the cause of the blast. Relatedly, the ministry’s data includes Palestinians killed by other Palestinians. In August 2022 clashes, for example, errant Palestinian rockets caused one-third of the reported Palestinian fatalities. The Israel Defense Forces estimated that nearly one-fifth of the Palestinian rockets fired at Israel during that conflict malfunctioned or otherwise fell short of their target.

The Gaza Health Ministry death tolls do not distinguish between civilians and combatants

The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. Its casualty figures also do not identify the circumstances of death, making it impossible to identify terrorists who died in the initial assault on Israel or during the Israeli defensive operations that followed. Within days of the gruesome attacks of October 7, 2023, Israeli officials reported they recovered the bodies of 1,500 terrorists in Israel. The Health Ministry has not clarified whether or not these individuals are counted on its registry. Hamas’s casualty count might also include Palestinian minors and adults aiding Hamas fighters in an auxiliary capacity. Analysis from The New York Times during the 2014 Israel-Hamas war found that men ages 20 to 29 were the most overrepresented among the dead. Hamas also employs fighters above and below that range, but this is a strong indication that Israeli attacks targeted and succeeded in eliminating Hamas terrorists.

a reply to: network dude

hen you have a number for that, we can discuss the genocide you speak of.

I guess we'll just have to wait until everybody dies so we can tally up the numbers, right?

Israel has done bad things in the past

Name 5.

originally posted by: 19Bones79
Name 5.

How about instead, you tell us that innocent Jewish students at colleges don't deserve to be harassed and threatened. Go ahead. Let's see if you can get the words out ...

a reply to: Kenzo

Ding Ding Ding

Winner, winner ... chicken dinner!

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo
@BigRedChew

I am getting huge amount of AI generated content from your replys to this thread. Most your replys were 100% AI generated by using two detectors ,GPTzero and copyleaks .

You want to explain why you reply with AI generated content to this thread ?

Yeah ... I knew he sounded like a bot. Is this allowed? The posts aren't his. He's a fake. When I was a moderator we didn't have AI so I don't know the answer to that question. Someone hit the alert button, tell the mods this guy is an AI bot, and let us know if it's allowed.