Those Fake Death Numbers From Hamas Out Of Gaza

There are people in the media, and even on ATS, screaming 'Israel killed 30,000 innocent people in Gaza'. But the truth is that no one really knows how many people have died in Gaza during this Hamas/Israel war. Hamas puts out death numbers, and people believe it and repeat it. However, we know that Hamas lies, that they have no way to actually count the dead, that they do not differentiate between a dead terrorist and a child, and Hamas blames ALL 'palestinian' deaths in Gaza on Israel, even the ones that Hamas commits itself.

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals. And his conclusion is that the numbers are bogus. No surprise considering it's Hamas that is making the claims. He gives the reasoning and the charts and graphs and the math etc etc. All are available at the links provided.

Saying that civilians are dying in Gaza is truthful.
Claiming that 30,000 civilians are known to be dead by the IDF is just wrong.

Hamas should give up the hostages and lay down their arms.
And the 'palestinians' that support Hamas should stop supporting them.
Then no one would be dying.

Hamas’ Gaza death toll stats are pure fiction

Wyner’s critique is damning: The daily reported death tolls rise in a straight line, about 270 a day — which makes zero sense, since in any war, some days see far greater fighting and bombing than others.

Plus there’s no correlation between the reported numbers of children and women slain each day (when most kids are surely near their mothers) or between the numbers of women and men.

Also, the ministry claims that 70% of the dead are women and children, while Hamas admits to losing 6,000 of its (male) combatants — which would mean that almost no male civilians have been killed.

The obvious conclusion is that the ministry is just (clumsily) making it all up. It’s definitely not presenting real info gathered from across Gaza.

The graphs and the math are at the link -

Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims

A professor of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

Wyner first tackles the total reported deaths, which he shows climbed by 270 plus or minus about 15% every day. This, he says, is statistically impossible: "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less." "The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity," he says – meaning at a regular rate, like a metronome.

"Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily," he concludes. "We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed."

He also highlights that by Hamas's own admission, 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, which if combined with Hamas's data on deaths, shows that 20% of the total deaths are combatant while 70% are women and children. This implies that "Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."

In conclusion, he says, "The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated.

How Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" Fakes Casualty Numbers

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

YES, noncombatants have died in Gaza. But they die in every war. What we DO know is that the numbers Hamas have given are fake. The true number will never be known.

Just a reminder about the fact that civilians die in war ... casualties in recent wars ...

World War II - 50,000,000 Dead

World War I - 40,000,000 Dead

Vietnam War - 1,353,000 Dead

Korea War - 525,000 Dead, over 1 Million Missing

Iraq War - Over 1 Million Associated Deaths

Iran/Iraq War - 500,000 Iraqi dead and 750,000 Iranian dead

a reply to: FlyersFan

Abraham Wyner, a professor of Statistics and Data Science at the Wharton School, has done an analysis on the claims by Hamas about the death totals.

Mmmmm, I'm gonna say there's a conflict of interest with the professor here...

He "may" have a dog in this fight.

It's very telling that the Joo haters won't say a thing about how if HAMAS surrendered today, the war would end today. All we hear is how Israel should stop fighting the war HAMAS started.

originally posted by: network dude
It's very telling that the Joo haters won't say a thing about how if HAMAS surrendered today, the war would end today. All we hear is how Israel should stop fighting the war HAMAS started.

Ukraine should stop fighting the war Putin started.

#Russian Genocide

a reply to: FlyersFan

its all fake . One side screams OMG its genocide, while the other side says they are cutting off babies heads.

Who do you believe? How about none of them.

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed
I'm gonna say there's a conflict of interest with the professor here...
He "may" have a dog in this fight.

And what would that supposed conflict of interest be?
Because his name is Abraham hes going to lie?

Did you read the math and statistics? He puts it out there.
Go ahead and prove it wrong if you can.

The fact is that Hamas has a history of lying ... and there is no way to be able to count the dead ... and they do not differentiate between a dead terrorist and a dead child ... and the math/stats show Hamas is lying. We didn't need the stats to know that already, but the stats are more proof that they do.

originally posted by: network dude
It's very telling that the Joo haters won't say a thing about how if HAMAS surrendered today, the war would end today. All we hear is how Israel should stop fighting the war HAMAS started.

50000 soldiers saying hey Israel we surrender so you can put us in prison for the rest of our lives.

You honestly think there's a chance of that?

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed
I'm gonna say there's a conflict of interest with the professor here...
He "may" have a dog in this fight.

And what would that supposed conflict of interest be?
Because his name is Abraham hes going to lie?

Did you read the math and statistics? He puts it out there.
Go ahead and prove it wrong if you can.

The fact is that Hamas has a history of lying ... and there is no way to be able to count the dead ... and they do not differentiate between a dead terrorist and a dead child ... and the math/stats show Hamas is lying. We didn't need the stats to know that already, but the stats are more proof that they do.

Where does he get his statistics from? Statistics are like polls can be manipulated .

I bet "experts" on the other side will spout completely different statistics.

a reply to: Maybenexttime

Don't start nothin; won't be nothin'

originally posted by: pennylane123
Where does he get his statistics from?.

He got the death stats from the same place everyone else has been ... straight from Hamas via the so called Gaza Health Ministry. They put out death stats nearly every day.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: pennylane123
Where does he get his statistics from?.

He got the death stats from the same place everyone else has been ... straight from Hamas via the so called Gaza Health Ministry. They put out death stats nearly every day.

So of course they are fake. So do you think the official numbers coming out Israel are legit?

a reply to: FlyersFan

Both sides lie during war of course. But the reality is that there are FAR more cases of the Israeli government and media lying to the public throughout history than Hamas. The very fact that Israel is attacking the Rafah crossing shows theres absolutely no concern for non-Hamas Palestinians.

Ever hear of the USS Liberty by the way?

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed


Ever hear of the USS Liberty by the way?

Every time I see that line, I imagine a redneck beating an old Muslim woman with a bat shouting, "Remember the Twin Towers!"

originally posted by: pennylane123
So of course they are fake.

Exactly. The death numbers out of Gaza are fake. Common sense tells us that. But now we have a professor of statistics from Wharton (very good school) giving the math and charts to show how they are fake. When Hamas says 30,000 dead innocent civilians ... that number can't be believed.

As for your Israel comment ... separate issue so I won't address it in this thread.

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed
But the reality is that there are FAR more cases of the Israeli government and media lying to the public throughout history than Hamas. :

Dunno' about that. But accusations against Israel are a separate topic.
This thread is about the death numbers in Gaza.

a reply to: FlyersFan

It's a war..

Truth is the first casualty in war

a reply to: Maybenexttime

By now it's probably only 10-20,000 Hamas fighters left., maybe less.
No...they most likely will not surrender.

originally posted by: DBCowboy

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed


Ever hear of the USS Liberty by the way?

Every time I see that line, I imagine a redneck beating an old Muslim woman with a bat shouting, "Remember the Twin Towers!"

Kinda like being reminded of the Holocaust every five seconds in every single form of media huh?

a reply to: FlyersFan



The repercussions of this war will not be limited to Gaza and Israel. One suitcase nuke or BIO and all bets are off...

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed

originally posted by: DBCowboy

originally posted by: AgarthaSeed


Ever hear of the USS Liberty by the way?

Every time I see that line, I imagine a redneck beating an old Muslim woman with a bat shouting, "Remember the Twin Towers!"

Kinda like being reminded of the Holocaust every five seconds in every single form of media huh?

Apologies, I'd reply more but I'm too busy atoning for Hiroshima to Japan.