How Concern Are People With Russia's Economy

a reply to: Quintilian

"The US aren't letting an occupied territory out from under their control (Germany is still under US military occupation from WW2)."

What, all of it?

US has bases here in the UK. Do you think we are "occupied"?

originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex

No, sorry I will be happy to see the U.S. collapsing because it is the only way all this meddling and constant warmongering will end.

Every country does the same as the US, has always been that way for 1000 years. I'm sure you would love for America to fall and have China replace it as a world power as it seems you are sure China will treat the world better, just hope not as badly as they do to their own people.

Just remember when America goes there will be a vacuum, last time America became isolationist we saw the rise of the Nazies and a pretty evil Japan, so be careful what you wish for as you might get it.

originally posted by: face23785


Things are not good here.

Like what in terms of collapse...

originally posted by: crayzeed

I think you aught to rethink your ideas. Russia was quite happy with how the arrangements were going with Germany. Germany is the big boy of the EU, THAT is why the Nordstreams were going to Germany. And it wasn't Putin "upset" by this it was the US/NATO and THAT is why the pipeline was blown. A warning from NATO (well every time I mention NATO I mean the US) to Germany to tow the line because if Germany and Russia had more favourable ties then NATO would have been out of Europe.

NATO is a paper tiger... EU is the power to equal America and does in many ways. It seems you forgot that Russia wants to get the old team back together to stop being something less than Texas and once again be a top 3. Ukraine was like its diamond, with lots of history, 44 million people, large natural resources, and a direct link to the EU, no pipeline was needed. When Russia lost all its satellite countries it really hurt them as a world power.

Russia's goal was to take each one back one by one, and Ukraine joining NATO would stop that. Russia almost had it, but the corruption for the last 30 years has really hurt them and so here we are today.

originally posted by: greendust

BTW I was amazed today that I was able to pull 10000 in cash from my personal account today. It was from a credit union so maybe they still have funds. I read recently that Wells Fargo was limiting all cash payouts to 1000 USD.

I called my Bank of America 2 weeks ago and told them I need 40k and they said 2 days to make sure they had it on hand. I'm selling my house and I'm paying workers in cash for discounts.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2

What, all of it?

US has bases here in the UK. Do you think we are "occupied"?

Some people have a weird way of looking at it all. The US pays Germany about a billion per year in rent money.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: greendust

BTW I was amazed today that I was able to pull 10000 in cash from my personal account today. It was from a credit union so maybe they still have funds. I read recently that Wells Fargo was limiting all cash payouts to 1000 USD.

I called my Bank of America 2 weeks ago and told them I need 40k and they said 2 days to make sure they had it on hand. I'm selling my house and I'm paying workers in cash for discounts.

I am glad to hear that. Seriously. When I read that some banks are limiting cash, with my limited knowledge on bank runs, that is where my mind goes. But probably more due to my ignorance than anything. I really really need to get better on understanding money. For the 10K they just needed local mgmt approval and I was out the door in about 20 minutes with cash in hand.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: greendust

You’ll get taxed to hell if you unload the IRA and 401k.

I’m not necessarily bullish in the short term, but I’m not all doom either. One thing I didn’t account for was how bad other nations were going to handle COVID. A lot of investor money left China and came to the US because they have more faith in the US. The US does some funny business with the fed, printing money, and propping up US assets, but we’re more transparent than China.

That said, I wouldn’t blow smoke up anyone’s ass and say the market is going to be daisies and unicorns in the near future. The S&P500 saw too much growth post COVID, and not many factors justify that IMO.

How someone mitigates that in terms of investment or retirement comes down to age though. If someone is close to retirement, it may not be a bad idea to change the makeup of their holdings to treasury bonds, cash alternatives, or other financial products that stray from stocks or corporate bonds.

But if someone has a few decades left, I would just average down as the market dips and rises.

If you are nervous, typically you should still have an element of control in your IRA and 401k. When you log into those accounts, you should see how the funds are invested. The most common in a 401k is a target fund that will show a year close to your retirement age. But there should be funds that stray away from the stock market and focus on money preservation if you’re convinced the stock market is too sketchy in the short term. If you go that route, your money wouldn’t take a bit or as big or a hit during a black swan, and you can put it back into the market when it bottoms and you’ll have bought the fire sale. You can even decide the mix (75% in preservation, 25% in growth)

Some of the funds don’t really spell out how they are investing your money, but they should show a ticker for the fund. If you take that ticker and go to Morningstars website, it will give you a breakdown of what the fund is in. First it will say how much is in bonds and cash alternatives then stocks. There will be a pie chart that shows the industries the stocks are balanced in, and towards the bottom you should be able to see a detailed list of the percentages of the fund that are in each individual asset even listing the types of bonds or stock names.

Personally, I pick funds that have low maintenance fees (under 0.5%, but ideally under 0.1%, vanguard is notorious for low fees).

With my Roth IRA I can do a step further and invest like a normal brokerage account, so I’m far more nimble there. There are ETFs that directly inverse the S&P500, so if you’re feeling nervous you can even buy shares of that which is essentially shorting the market. I’ve also directly shorter individual stocks.

But even if we have an economic downturn, many investment funds are a makeup of hundreds or thousands of stocks. Even if 10% get eaten to defaulting, long term you’ll probably be OK.

The market is cyclical, we’ll have another downturn and likely a black swan, but again, if you have decades left you’ll still probably come back in the long term. If America collapses, retirement savings aren’t going to be the first thing on our minds anyways, so personally I haven’t stopped putting money in retirement.

I do like the video‘s point that you posted that we should have let some companies fail during COVID, equating it to controlled fires as opposed to a wild fire. There will be some reconciliation of the market and private sector soon. But again, I wouldn’t overthink it as a long term investor. It’s different when we’re talking about policy or someone has to make short term decisions because they’re retiring soon. But don’t be rash with long term holdings.

Edit: this whole explanation shows why we’re also in a better position than Russia or China. We have the flexibility to invest in almost any financial product… even if it’s foreign. That makes us incredibly nimble.

Thank you very much for such a thoughtful response. I really appreciate that. You seem like you are a person that understands money far better than I do.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: DAVID64
China will wait till they are at rock at bottom and desperate, then swoop in to loan them money. Probably also India to a lesser degree.

I think China could look to a weak Russia and attack knowing no one will support Russia. As Russia uses up all its war supplies and has just cannon fodder troops what do you think about the Chinese sending 50 million across the border? Russia is extremely rich in natural resources China would just love to have it for free, and China would have a workforce they could use as they do with other countries and not even get their hands dirty. Also, If China loses 300 million in the process no big deal, and be kind of a win-win to cut the population down some.

Thinking China will invade Russia anytime soon or possibly within your lifetime is just fantasy stroking.

China would get their hair blown back to the Stone Age if that were to happen and they know this.

Also, If China loses 300 million in the process no big deal, and be kind of a win-win to cut the population down some.

300million dead Chinese? Oh really? You’re talking about a global event that would shadow both world wars combined.

It’s simply not in Russia’s interest to do so, nor is it China’s. Much to anyones dismay that’s cheerleading this even as a thought.

a reply to: Quintilian

The US aren't letting an occupied territory out from under their control (Germany is still under US military occupation from WW2).

Have you ever actually been to Germany?

I have, quite a few times.
Cracking country, really nice people.

Only time I noticed anything remotely like a military presence was when I flew into Frankfurt a few months after 9/11 and there were German armed police officers everywhere in the airport.

The first time I visited the former East Germany wasn't long after The Wall came down; a dreary. miserable god forsaken place full of sad-eyed, downtrodden people.
This was a place that had actually experienced life under foreign control.

Germany is not an occupied country and if anything is very active in pursuing its own influence over other countries through its leading role in the EU.

a reply to: greendust

No problem, I wanted to make sure the response had more tools for you to make your decision than opinion on my part.

It’s not as intimidating as it seems once you start digging in and supplement with some good videos and podcasts to help conceptualize it.

Personally it just became a hobby that I love, so it’s not as taxing for me to devote time to. I realize that may not be the case for everyone… but the good news is it can be just as beneficial for people who even just devote enough time for the basics.

Warren Buffett made a bet with some hedge fund guys for a million dollars that he could beat their funds simply by putting money in the low fee S&P 500 ETF and come out with more money at the end of the bet.

www.investopedia.com...

He’s also been one of the most successful investors by picking pretty obvious blue chip stocks and holding them for a mid to long period of time. He’s proven you don’t have to be a day trader to navigate the market.

But a lot of this comes down to age and objectives of investing. Short term vs retirement is quite different.

I do encourage people to learn more if it interests them. Getting involved in investing has given me a really interesting perspective as I look into current events. A lot of us have opinionated bias, but if you get into investing you’ll find yourself looking at things through a separate lens ‘as an investor’, forcing yourself to be a little more agnostic, separated from emotion to predict outcomes.

originally posted by: Imhere

China would get their hair blown back to the Stone Age if that were to happen and they know this.

I used the scenario that China has 10s of trillion in failed real estate and much of their growth is crumpling due to shabby construction and cutting corners for profit with no real oversite. If some of their cities got nuked it would be a way to save face by burying their failures in the war. I really do not see the Chinese caring about 100s of millions dying to rebuilding if the end result was a bigger prize.