How Concern Are People With Russia's Economy

And while the MSM all eagerly awaits the Russian depression, their buddies at Black Rock move all investment in the USA to other shores. Hmmm? Interesting? No?

Link as embedded did not work:

"Blackrock Exits US Markets to Avoid Corporate Debt Bubble and Looming Recession"

www.youtube.com...

Embed attempt number 2:



I guess Blackrock has sucked us dry and is moving on to better near corpses to suck them dry. Blackrock, what are you going to do when we are all dead? Now that isnt going to be much fun, is it?

a reply to: Xtrozero

Even if they figure out their short term economic crises, they both have looming population collapse.

Neither really have immigration, so unless they absorb someone else they gotta figure something out. By then it may be too late with record pensioners and increasingly small generations entering the work force.

a reply to: greendust

Got a source on that? Your YT link is broken.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I just tried to fix, link and embed attempt #2.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

Even if they figure out their short term economic crises, they both have looming population collapse.

Neither really have immigration, so unless they absorb someone else they gotta figure something out. By then it may be too late with record pensioners and increasingly small generations entering the work force.

I'm not sure if it is short-term, seems their long-term 10% GNP has been all on crappy building that after 10 years starts to collapse, so who knows where that will end up and to what level. As to population collapse, I think for China it is an easy fix in all they need to do is dictate 2 or 3 children per woman, like they did with only one child. They can even give up the babies for the State to raise. I think they would not do that unless they are down 50% of where they are at today.

originally posted by: greendust

I guess Blackrock has sucked us dry and is moving on to better near corpses to suck them dry. Blackrock, what are you going to do when we are all dead? Now that isnt going to be much fun, is it?

Blackrock had massive investments in housing, buying at above listings and I think they see a rather big correction coming and sold out at a loss to save a bigger loss soon. To make you feel better they lost 1.7 trillion in 2022

a reply to: greendust

Not a bad video. He brought up some great points.

But it’s quite a stretch to say blackrock is moving all investment abroad.

Blackrock does have an investment banking arm, but they also have a custodial arm.

So they’re starting to look at funds for the emerging market. They have a lot of ETFs and financial products. Putting some more attention in emerging markets while the world has been shaking up the supply mix is understandable.

I’d be more curious to see how much they change their mix of domestic vs foreign assets. But I’d be willing to bet it’s nothing dramatic, a few pints. But it was never mentioned in the video.

Again, far cry from “all” as you said.


Edit: quick side note, the writing on the wall for corporate bonds was on the wall when the fed purchased them for the first time ever during COVID. Anyone who though buying corporate bonds was a good idea in the last few years needs to go to the doctor and get some chromosomes deleted.

originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex
a reply to: Xtrozero

I think the U.S. might collapse financially and through polarization of its own population in a matter of years. Might just unravel as fast as the Soviet Union did.

I think you've very right and we all know anything is possible. Greater empires have crumbled over time.

So it should be in all of our interest not to allow that to happen. We should focus on those who are attempting to speed up the process by injecting propaganda into our society, dividing us, hoping it makes them last longer. We know who they are: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.

There are the primary forces spreading lies, deceiving Americans, concurrently stealing information and engaging in cyber attacks and piracy.

If what you said you truly believe, then it is your duty, as well as mine, to combat it. No?

China will be no help for Russia, infrastructure has been damaged in many areas of China due Typhoon and damage is huge. Unemployment rate is over 20% and people are suffering.

Putin felt grandioso and this is how it played out. Now we just wait how Russian people will react to this within a year.

a reply to: Mahogany

If what you said you truly believe, then it is your duty, as well as mine, to combat it. No?

Well here is the thing: everything you claim is done to America by other forces America does to everyone else and even to its own population. The way I see it the Ukraine conflict was provoked by the U.S. to prevent the E.U. and Russia from developing closer ties. I happen to be very much in favor of such a rapprochement.

The way I see it the U.S. attacked the Nord Stream pipeline to sell its much more expensive LNG to Europe and as a result make certain energy intensive industries leave Europe, especially Germany and relocate to the U.S.

No, sorry I will be happy to see the U.S. collapsing because it is the only way all this meddling and constant warmongering will end.

a reply to: MindBodySpiritComplex

You are wrong about Russia and E.U
Ever since E.U was formed Russia wanted to join that but was not allowed. This angered Russia and specially Putin and you can see it by Putin´s body language and behaviour towards politicians, presidents and ministers of E.U countries pretty much in every occations where Putin met these. Putin put Elisabeth II to wait him when they met and this same behavior has faced all who met him, Elisabeth II had to wait 15 minutes ( shortest wait time with Putin) others almost an hour.

Do you really see Putin and E.U relationship as like best friends ?

From 0.0093 al the way up to 0.0095 to the Euro.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: greendust

Not a bad video. He brought up some great points.

But it’s quite a stretch to say blackrock is moving all investment abroad.

Blackrock does have an investment banking arm, but they also have a custodial arm.

So they’re starting to look at funds for the emerging market. They have a lot of ETFs and financial products. Putting some more attention in emerging markets while the world has been shaking up the supply mix is understandable.

I’d be more curious to see how much they change their mix of domestic vs foreign assets. But I’d be willing to bet it’s nothing dramatic, a few pints. But it was never mentioned in the video.

Again, far cry from “all” as you said.


Edit: quick side note, the writing on the wall for corporate bonds was on the wall when the fed purchased them for the first time ever during COVID. Anyone who though buying corporate bonds was a good idea in the last few years needs to go to the doctor and get some chromosomes deleted.

I was parroting the site I read about that YTber. I agree with your sentiment. I do think its funny that these peops, that have caused SO MUCH corporate weirdness here are now like, "welp, thanks for all the money, see ya guys later, sorry we ruined the party!"

And they are smart obviously, they will probably never suffer for their nonsense.

a reply to: greendust

I made some threads in 2020 about the fed buying corporate bonds for the first time and how it would be a disaster. Unfortunately they were mudpit threads and got nuked…

But if you asked me in those what would happen, I was convinced it was the beginning of the end.

Sadly most of the world fumbled harder than us. That doesn’t exactly give me hope, but I’m not as convinced we’ll be the first domino anymore.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: greendust

I made some threads in 2020 about the fed buying corporate bonds for the first time and how it would be a disaster. Unfortunately they were mudpit threads and got nuked…

But if you asked me in those what would happen, I was convinced it was the beginning of the end.

Sadly most of the world fumbled harder than us. That doesn’t exactly give me hope, but I’m not as convinced we’ll be the first domino anymore.

A question, I am thinking of unloading all of my 401k and IRA's since I am currently unemployed. Some of this nonsense I see is my reasoning. What do you think in that regard?

BTW I was amazed today that I was able to pull 10000 in cash from my personal account today. It was from a credit union so maybe they still have funds. I read recently that Wells Fargo was limiting all cash payouts to 1000 USD.

a reply to: greendust

You’ll get taxed to hell if you unload the IRA and 401k.

I’m not necessarily bullish in the short term, but I’m not all doom either. One thing I didn’t account for was how bad other nations were going to handle COVID. A lot of investor money left China and came to the US because they have more faith in the US. The US does some funny business with the fed, printing money, and propping up US assets, but we’re more transparent than China.

That said, I wouldn’t blow smoke up anyone’s ass and say the market is going to be daisies and unicorns in the near future. The S&P500 saw too much growth post COVID, and not many factors justify that IMO.

How someone mitigates that in terms of investment or retirement comes down to age though. If someone is close to retirement, it may not be a bad idea to change the makeup of their holdings to treasury bonds, cash alternatives, or other financial products that stray from stocks or corporate bonds.

But if someone has a few decades left, I would just average down as the market dips and rises.

If you are nervous, typically you should still have an element of control in your IRA and 401k. When you log into those accounts, you should see how the funds are invested. The most common in a 401k is a target fund that will show a year close to your retirement age. But there should be funds that stray away from the stock market and focus on money preservation if you’re convinced the stock market is too sketchy in the short term. If you go that route, your money wouldn’t take a bit or as big or a hit during a black swan, and you can put it back into the market when it bottoms and you’ll have bought the fire sale. You can even decide the mix (75% in preservation, 25% in growth)

Some of the funds don’t really spell out how they are investing your money, but they should show a ticker for the fund. If you take that ticker and go to Morningstars website, it will give you a breakdown of what the fund is in. First it will say how much is in bonds and cash alternatives then stocks. There will be a pie chart that shows the industries the stocks are balanced in, and towards the bottom you should be able to see a detailed list of the percentages of the fund that are in each individual asset even listing the types of bonds or stock names.

Personally, I pick funds that have low maintenance fees (under 0.5%, but ideally under 0.1%, vanguard is notorious for low fees).

With my Roth IRA I can do a step further and invest like a normal brokerage account, so I’m far more nimble there. There are ETFs that directly inverse the S&P500, so if you’re feeling nervous you can even buy shares of that which is essentially shorting the market. I’ve also directly shorter individual stocks.

But even if we have an economic downturn, many investment funds are a makeup of hundreds or thousands of stocks. Even if 10% get eaten to defaulting, long term you’ll probably be OK.

The market is cyclical, we’ll have another downturn and likely a black swan, but again, if you have decades left you’ll still probably come back in the long term. If America collapses, retirement savings aren’t going to be the first thing on our minds anyways, so personally I haven’t stopped putting money in retirement.

I do like the video‘s point that you posted that we should have let some companies fail during COVID, equating it to controlled fires as opposed to a wild fire. There will be some reconciliation of the market and private sector soon. But again, I wouldn’t overthink it as a long term investor. It’s different when we’re talking about policy or someone has to make short term decisions because they’re retiring soon. But don’t be rash with long term holdings.

Edit: this whole explanation shows why we’re also in a better position than Russia or China. We have the flexibility to invest in almost any financial product… even if it’s foreign. That makes us incredibly nimble.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
I don't think China really cares how many they lose. They could lose a billion and still be 600 million.

China's Belt and Road Initiative has been in trouble for some time, with various countries not able to repay. The war has meant Russia will also default with China and bring all the plans crashing down.

Russia has killed China's ambitions.

China may come out of this with more Russian industry, as it's sold off on the cheap, but Russia is not going to fill the gap in wider global shifts as countries re-examine their wider relationships having been shown the risks of economic over-reliance.

a reply to: dollukka
I think you aught to rethink your ideas. Russia was quite happy with how the arrangements were going with Germany. Germany is the big boy of the EU, THAT is why the Nordstreams were going to Germany. And it wasn't Putin "upset" by this it was the US/NATO and THAT is why the pipeline was blown. A warning from NATO (well every time I mention NATO I mean the US) to Germany to tow the line because if Germany and Russia had more favourable ties then NATO would have been out of Europe.

originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex
a reply to: Xtrozero

I think the U.S. might collapse financially and through polarization of its own population in a matter of years. Might just unravel as fast as the Soviet Union did.

People will laugh at this but most experts laughed at the idea of the Soviet Union collapsing if you had predicted it a few years before it happened.

Things are not good here. I don't have confidence in our future. "It's never happened before" is not an argument, and it has happened before it's just been a while.

I remember people laughing at President Bush when he said we needed to prepare for a global pandemic. All these experts said it couldn't happen.

People brushed off intelligence experts all through the 90s that said we needed to pay more attention to Islamic terror. No one believed them until 9/11 happened.

People are exceedingly ignorant with this "well it hasn't happened before" argument.

originally posted by: MindBodySpiritComplex
The way I see it the Ukraine conflict was provoked by the U.S. to prevent the E.U. and Russia from developing closer ties. I happen to be very much in favor of such a rapprochement.

More specifically ties between Germany and Russia. German finance and industry/technology backed by Russian resources is a neocons worst nightmare. The US could lose control of Europe if they let that prosper, hence the coup and hostilities on Russia's border, and if it wasn't obvious enough, the US blowing up Nordstream to make them dependant on energy that the US has some control over. That seems to Nato's function now, trying to control the worlds energy reserves.

The US aren't letting an occupied territory out from under their control (Germany is still under US military occupation from WW2).

The way I see it the U.S. attacked the Nord Stream pipeline to sell its much more expensive LNG to Europe and as a result make certain energy intensive industries leave Europe, especially Germany and relocate to the U.S.

Yes, that too. They definitely are throwing Germany under the bus that way.

No, sorry I will be happy to see the U.S. collapsing because it is the only way all this meddling and constant warmongering will end.

You'll probably get your wish within the next decade. Some powerful and or growing economies have worked out that they should grow in a way that doesn't rely on the US dollar. As countries in the global south rise up, the west will decline. A mixture of propaganda and smug arrogance has the west thinking their little ponzi scheme will last forever, but it's already declining and all sorts of plans are being laid to that end.

It will be interesting to see how China in particular approaches this, as the US going tits up will cause some pain for everyone, at least for a while.