Debunking Vaccine Myths RE VAERS

a reply to: Asmodeus3

I had no choice but to reject the figure, initially, as you failed to cite the source. Taking wild guesses and leaping from A to B to Z is what lays at the base of the entire house of cards.

A massive hoax is being perpetuated on the population. On one side, there are those dedicated to the responsible investigation of fact. On the other, people flinging mud and putting their fingers in their ears throwing what amounts to a tantrum. There are still an unfortunate few stuck in limbo, many for good reason, but a small number who commit the fallacy of holding opinions/guesswork at the same level as peer reviewed science and medicine.

The two do not compare. Those people in the middle deserve to have all the facts with none of the soothsaying.

originally posted by: JBurns

41,473 reports were submitted to VAERS in 2021, while only 9,104 were submitted in 2022.

If you have explained the various inconsistencies and errors already pointed out and further explained below, could you link to it? I must have missed it as I haven't been keeping up with this thread. Thanks.

Just putting this out there.

2021...


2022...

This makes a total of 50,577 reports of adverse reactions

Lol.

No...no it doesn't. Unless my use of VAERS is wrong (quite possible, never used it before) it makes a total of over 1.5 million reported adverse events in the US (and territories) alone for the years 2021-22 combined.

We don't know how many of these adverse events are actually caused by the vaccine. That's why the CDC was supposed to do PPR analysis. Can you point me to any CDC VAERS PRR analysis from the beginning of the roll out up until March 2022?

Also if you are looking for a realistic number of actual adverse events associated with these "vaccines" (but as yet not causally linked), you would need to come up with a realistic under reporting factor and demonstrate how you arrived at it.

From the 2010 Harvard Pilgrim Study...Admittedly I have't looked into their methods, so you could always do that and explain why they are wrong.

Adverse events from drugs and vaccines are common, but underreported. Although 25% of
ambulatory patients experience an adverse drug event, less than 0.3% of all adverse drug events
and 1-13% of serious events are reported to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or
slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health. New
surveillance methods for drug and vaccine adverse effects are needed. Barriers to reporting
include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the
burdens of reporting: reporting is not part of clinicians’ usual workflow, takes time, and is
duplicative.

By these numbers, you have just over a 1% chance of dying from COVID-19 if you were to be infected. Pretty good odds, if you ask me.

I'm unaware of any reputable scientists now claiming an IFR of >1% for covid (I think such a claim might rule out the "reputable" part de facto).

At any rate you are very unlikely to have such a high risk if under 65 and healthy.

An overall IFR is a somewhat misleading figure anyway as the IFR and hence risk factor for pre vaccine era covid varies more than 1,000 fold across age groups (not sure on the latest less lethal variants). So your risk will depend largely on your age (demographics also play a part) and initial health status.

Compare these numbers to the total doses given world-wide: 13.29 billion doses given to approximately 5.5 billion people. This means your chance of suffering any adverse reaction is 1:262,767. 1 person will experience an adverse reaction for every 262,767 doses given, or right around 1:109,733 people. In other words, 1 person out of every 109,733 people will experience some adverse side effect. Not neccesarily death, not neccesarily minor - the VAERS reports don't indicate the severity of the side effects.

It's been pointed out that your numbers are wrong. As are your calculations.

You are dividing a (incorrect to begin with) VAERS figure into vaccine doses administered worldwide. Yet VAERS is applicable to the US only, not the entire world.

Another problem would be that you are including AE's up until the end of 2022, while including vaccination data well into 2023.

I don't need to do the math to show me that 1:109733 is vastly lower than the already low 1% fatality rate among COVID-19 patients.

You certainly don't need any maths at all! lol

This is the result of doing my own research, and I invite you to do your own as well. Don't take my word for it.

Appreciate that, but this doesn't mean that such research is accurate simply because you have made some (surely minimal) effort. There seems to be some valid and genuine criticisms of your research that you haven't successfully explained yet.

originally posted by: Quintilian

originally posted by: JBurns

41,473 reports were submitted to VAERS in 2021, while only 9,104 were submitted in 2022.

If you have explained the various inconsistencies and errors already pointed out and further explained below, could you link to it? I must have missed it as I haven't been keeping up with this thread. Thanks.

Just putting this out there.

2021...

2022...

This makes a total of 50,577 reports of adverse reactions

Lol.

No...no it doesn't. Unless my use of VAERS is wrong (quite possible, never used it before) it makes a total of over 1.5 million reported adverse events in the US (and territories) alone for the years 2021-22 combined.

We don't know how many of these adverse events are actually caused by the vaccine. That's why the CDC was supposed to do PPR analysis. Can you point me to any CDC VAERS PRR analysis from the beginning of the roll out up until March 2022?

Also if you are looking for a realistic number of actual adverse events associated with these "vaccines" (but as yet not causally linked), you would need to come up with a realistic under reporting factor and demonstrate how you arrived at it.

From the 2010 Harvard Pilgrim Study...Admittedly I have't looked into their methods, so you could always do that and explain why they are wrong.

Adverse events from drugs and vaccines are common, but underreported. Although 25% of
ambulatory patients experience an adverse drug event, less than 0.3% of all adverse drug events
and 1-13% of serious events are reported to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or
slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health. New
surveillance methods for drug and vaccine adverse effects are needed. Barriers to reporting
include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the
burdens of reporting: reporting is not part of clinicians’ usual workflow, takes time, and is
duplicative.

By these numbers, you have just over a 1% chance of dying from COVID-19 if you were to be infected. Pretty good odds, if you ask me.

I'm unaware of any reputable scientists now claiming an IFR of >1% for covid (I think such a claim might rule out the "reputable" part de facto).

At any rate you are very unlikely to have such a high risk if under 65 and healthy.

An overall IFR is a somewhat misleading figure anyway as the IFR and hence risk factor for pre vaccine era covid varies more than 1,000 fold across age groups (not sure on the latest less lethal variants). So your risk will depend largely on your age (demographics also play a part) and initial health status.

Compare these numbers to the total doses given world-wide: 13.29 billion doses given to approximately 5.5 billion people. This means your chance of suffering any adverse reaction is 1:262,767. 1 person will experience an adverse reaction for every 262,767 doses given, or right around 1:109,733 people. In other words, 1 person out of every 109,733 people will experience some adverse side effect. Not neccesarily death, not neccesarily minor - the VAERS reports don't indicate the severity of the side effects.

It's been pointed out that your numbers are wrong. As are your calculations.

You are dividing a (incorrect to begin with) VAERS figure into vaccine doses administered worldwide. Yet VAERS is applicable to the US only, not the entire world.

Another problem would be that you are including AE's up until the end of 2022, while including vaccination data well into 2023.

I don't need to do the math to show me that 1:109733 is vastly lower than the already low 1% fatality rate among COVID-19 patients.

You certainly don't need any maths at all! lol

This is the result of doing my own research, and I invite you to do your own as well. Don't take my word for it.

Appreciate that, but this doesn't mean that such research is accurate simply because you have made some (surely minimal) effort. There seems to be some valid and genuine criticisms of your research that you haven't successfully explained yet.

Your interpretation seems to be accurate, I think I posted data exclusively from FL.

The number of adverse events are still a fraction of the billions of doses given. It doesn't change my own assessment that the vaccine is less dangerous than COVID which is itself unlikely to kill someone. I think having the most accurate data is crucial, and your data seems flawless 👍🏻👍🏻

My assertion isn't that vaccination is without risk, merely:

1) those risks are clearly presented and defined on the consent form
2) assuming all VAERS data is accurately entered by the public, those AEs are still only a fraction compared to COVID serious illness/deaths

The problem is, anyone can enter that data. Someone who smokes, never exercises and eats MacDonalds 3x a day could develop heart problems and turn around and blame the vaccine. I don't have any data suggesting that is the case.

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Asmodeus3

You just keep repeating knowingly false and misleading information to distract from the lack of anything resembling an argument beyond "vaccine bad boo vaccine apologists"

I will not be replying to you until and unless you want to present some actual facts, something resembling an argument, a concrete position in the discussion, etc.

You can't provide sources, you can't provide figures, you refuse to provide clarification of your allegations beyond "something bad might happen sometime" so I still maintain you have yet to actually enter the debate. One side showed up, the other brought a bucket of mud.

Do you have an actual argument to make and where are the facts supporting that conclusion?

You see, you have made a series of claims that have been refuted as they were completely incorrect. To demand sources when you provide nothing is just hilarious.

The fatality rates given are not correct. You used the case fatality rate instead of the infection fatality rate. And you drew the wrong conclusions based upon this. You completely disregarded the asymptomatic cases and those who have minor infections and never get tested. Instead of using the IFR you used the CFR.

The rate of adverse reactions is incorrect as you tried to divide the number of reported cases in Florida registered in VAERS to the total number of shots in worldwide. Terrible thinking. And the wrong conclusions.

Unless you think the above are correct.
Others have pointed out exactly the same mistakes and flaws. Just as the member above.

You said

For the last time, 13 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine has been given world wide.

And look how much your arguments gets exposed in the next paragraph when I pointed that at least 5.5 billion people have been vaccinated worldwide.

Not my calculation, an actual number by actual credible sources which I've linked. Something you've failed to do even once.

You're pushing an agenda. Q-anon drivel.

I reject your 5.5 billion number. I haven't seen that from a credible source. Facebook doesn't count. Even if so, it only further proves my point.

You need to be able to provide sources yourself before making all sorts of unsubstantiated claims that have been repeatedly refuted.

a reply to: JBurns

You rejected the figure as you had no idea of how many people have been vaccinated and you continued upon the same path by insisting that 13 million doses have been administered worldwide showing lack of understanding of even the most basic figure and facts. You didn't even considered the population of the US as a reference frame or any other country with a considerable population.

The population of Florida is over 22 million people as an example and the population of the US is over 333 millions.

Then you went on a safari making one mistake after the other and trying to find the rate of adverse reactions by dividing the number of reported cases registered in Florida to the numbers of total shots given worldwide. That is absolute confusion.

Your arguments are incorrect and have been repeatedly refuted.

a reply to: JBurns

You said

I don't need to do the math to show me that 1:109733 is vastly lower than the already low 1% fatality rate among COVID-19 patients

You don't need to do any maths and you don't seem to have dine any research as you claimed... Dividing the number of adverse reactions reported in Florida by the number of shots given worldwide shows precisely the level of confusion the arguments you have presented. None of your arguments are correct and this has been pointed out to you several times.

a reply to: Quintilian

There is more to the claims made by the OP that as we have seen are completely false and without any merits.

The OP has said

We don't have to defend anything. Our's is the default position supported by mainstream professionals and 80% or more of the population. You have to change the status-quo, via credible facts and figures, which you have totally failed at doing.

The status quo is unchanged. You aren't actually convincing anyone of anything other than the frailty and fragility of anti-vax true believers.

So in few words, and in the absence of any evidence and any justification, the OP who is the representative of 'science' and the truth as well as the representative of the status-quo as he says, wants to come along, make a range of unsubstantiated claims, such as all the claims he made in this thread, that have been refuted, and then he wants us to accept them as he is as he said the representative of 'science'...

a reply to: Asmodeus3

You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than experiencing severe side effects.

as he is as he said the representative of 'science'...

Another false and misleading claim. I am presenting established scientific opinion, not my own opinion. That is the difference between you and I, I know my opinions do not equate to fact. So I re-post facts from people who actually know what they are talking about.

As a non-scientist, I know I am not a scientist and do not feel the need to play one on the Internet.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

It doesn't matter statistically, any way you cut it, the numbers showing deaths from the vaccines are far less than the ~1% fatality rate of COVID-19. 1% of vaccine recipients don't die. 1% of people who catch COVID-19 do die.

The numbers showing serious illness from the vaccines are far less than the number experiencing serious illness as a result of COVID-19.

Dine on that.

VAERS received 19,319 preliminary reports of death (0.0029%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine

COVID-19 has a 1.1% mortality rate

Wow! 0.0029% is vastly lower than 1.1%

You'd be many, many, many times safer with the vaccine than the virus.

SOURCE: coronavirus.jhu.edu...

SOURCE: vaers.hhs.gov...

Myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis is inflammation of the outer lining of the heart. Most patients with myocarditis or pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination responded well to medicine and rest and felt better quickly. Most cases have been reported after receiving Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna (mRNA COVID-19 vaccines), particularly in male adolescents and young adults.
A review of vaccine safety data in VAERS from December 2020–August 2021 found a small but increased risk of myocarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Over 350 million mRNA vaccines were given during the study period and CDC scientists found that rates of myocarditis were highest following the second dose of an mRNA vaccine among males in the following age groups:
12–15 years (70.7 cases per one million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech)
16–17 years (105.9 cases per one million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech)
18–24 years (52.4 cases and 56.3 cases per million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, respectively)
Multiple studies and reviews of data from vaccine safety monitoring systems continue to show that vaccines are safe. As a result, the agency will refocus enhanced surveillance and safety monitoring efforts toward children and adolescents.

As of February 16, 2023, there have been 1,063 preliminary reports in VAERS among people younger than age 18 years under review for potential cases of myocarditis and pericarditis. Of these, 246 remain under review. Through confirmation of symptoms and diagnostics by provider interview or review of medical records, 714 reports have been verified to meet CDC’s working case definition for myocarditis. See below for counts of verified reports of myocarditis by age group.

5-11 years: 23 verified reports of myocarditis after 23,311,534 doses administered
12-15 years: 375 verified reports of myocarditis after 25,875,181 doses administered
16-17 years: 316 verified reports of myocarditis after 14,158,267 doses administered
As the COVID-19 vaccines are authorized for younger children, CDC and FDA will continue to monitor for and evaluate reports of myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination and will share more information as it becomes available. Learn more about myocarditis and pericarditis, including clinical considerations, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. More than 670 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through February 15, 2023. During this time, VAERS received 19,319 preliminary reports of death (0.0029%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA clinicians review reports of death to VAERS including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records. Continued monitoring has identified nine deaths causally associated with J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccination. CDC and FDA continue to review reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination and update information as it becomes available.

SOURCE: www.cdc.gov...

originally posted by: JBurns
VAERS received 19,319 preliminary reports of death (0.0029%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine

COVID-19 has a 1.1% mortality rate

Wow! 0.0029% is vastly lower than 1.1%

You'd be many, many, many times safer with the vaccine than the virus.

SOURCE: coronavirus.jhu.edu...

SOURCE: vaers.hhs.gov...

Myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis is inflammation of the outer lining of the heart. Most patients with myocarditis or pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination responded well to medicine and rest and felt better quickly. Most cases have been reported after receiving Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna (mRNA COVID-19 vaccines), particularly in male adolescents and young adults.
A review of vaccine safety data in VAERS from December 2020–August 2021 found a small but increased risk of myocarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Over 350 million mRNA vaccines were given during the study period and CDC scientists found that rates of myocarditis were highest following the second dose of an mRNA vaccine among males in the following age groups:
12–15 years (70.7 cases per one million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech)
16–17 years (105.9 cases per one million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech)
18–24 years (52.4 cases and 56.3 cases per million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, respectively)
Multiple studies and reviews of data from vaccine safety monitoring systems continue to show that vaccines are safe. As a result, the agency will refocus enhanced surveillance and safety monitoring efforts toward children and adolescents.

As of February 16, 2023, there have been 1,063 preliminary reports in VAERS among people younger than age 18 years under review for potential cases of myocarditis and pericarditis. Of these, 246 remain under review. Through confirmation of symptoms and diagnostics by provider interview or review of medical records, 714 reports have been verified to meet CDC’s working case definition for myocarditis. See below for counts of verified reports of myocarditis by age group.

5-11 years: 23 verified reports of myocarditis after 23,311,534 doses administered
12-15 years: 375 verified reports of myocarditis after 25,875,181 doses administered
16-17 years: 316 verified reports of myocarditis after 14,158,267 doses administered
As the COVID-19 vaccines are authorized for younger children, CDC and FDA will continue to monitor for and evaluate reports of myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination and will share more information as it becomes available. Learn more about myocarditis and pericarditis, including clinical considerations, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. More than 670 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through February 15, 2023. During this time, VAERS received 19,319 preliminary reports of death (0.0029%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA clinicians review reports of death to VAERS including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records. Continued monitoring has identified nine deaths causally associated with J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccination. CDC and FDA continue to review reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination and update information as it becomes available.

SOURCE: www.cdc.gov...

COVID-19 doesn't have a mortality rate of 1.1%.
It has been explained to you I don't know how many times now that you should use the Infection Fatality Rate instead of the Case Fatality Rate. You don't seem to understand even the most basic numbers such as the IFR and the CFR

The fatality rates given are not correct. You used the case fatality rate instead of the infection fatality rate. And you drew the wrong conclusions based upon this. You completely disregarded the asymptomatic cases and those who have minor infections and never get tested. Instead of using the IFR you used the CFR.

The global average IFR was 0.15% long before any medical interventions and the onset of natural immunity. At the moment the infection fatality rate is probably the same or even lower than that of the flu.

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Asmodeus3

You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than experiencing severe side effects.

as he is as he said the representative of 'science'...

Another false and misleading claim. I am presenting established scientific opinion, not my own opinion. That is the difference between you and I, I know my opinions do not equate to fact. So I re-post facts from people who actually know what they are talking about.

As a non-scientist, I know I am not a scientist and do not feel the need to play one on the Internet.

No that's wrong. You are presenting your own unsubstantiated opinions and conclusions that are shown to be completely false.

The fatality rates given are not correct. You used the case fatality rate instead of the infection fatality rate. And you drew the wrong conclusions based upon this. You completely disregarded the asymptomatic cases and those who have minor infections and never get tested. Instead of using the IFR you used the CFR.

The rate of adverse reactions is incorrect as you tried to divide the number of reported cases in Florida registered in VAERS to the total number of shots in worldwide. Terrible thinking. And the wrong conclusions.

You insisted that there were 13 million shots given worldwide when the population of Florida is over 22 million and the population of the planet over 8 billion.

You say you are not relevant and not a scientist above and by your own admission. That is obvious from what you have been claiming and from your estimations. Currently you have been comparing the mortality rates by the vaccines and the virus (which are both wrong) without taking into account the benefit to risk ratio for every age group, medium and long terns effects, and the falsification of data by Pfizer during the original clinical phase trials.

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Asmodeus3

It doesn't matter statistically, any way you cut it, the numbers showing deaths from the vaccines are far less than the ~1% fatality rate of COVID-19. 1% of vaccine recipients don't die. 1% of people who catch COVID-19 do die.

The numbers showing serious illness from the vaccines are far less than the number experiencing serious illness as a result of COVID-19.

Dine on that.

The infection fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 was always very low and now after three years of exposure is even lower. The rest of your analysis is based on the wrong numbers and statistics and as I said above is completely wrong.

Average global infection fatality rate was around 0.15%

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

Conclusions: All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations

Even if you use the US deaths and infections you have still used the CFR and not the IFR. You are claiming fatality rates of 1.1% and that's clearly wrong and misleading. Just as everything else you said.

ATTENTION

Really.
This is not rocket science.
I don't know how it is that people can't understand that opinions of each other are not the topic on ATS - EVER - but it's close to time to start issuing Posting Bans to those who ignore this.

BE WARNED IF YOUR POST IS NOT ON TOPIC AND IS ABOUT OTHER MEMBERS YOU ARE ABOUT TO BE POSTING BANNED! This includes comments members make in other threads.

Everyone and I mean everyone is allowed to post here on topic and to do so without being called names or becoming the target of others' posts. Debate the topic and leave each other out of it. OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS are encouraged.

The topic is Debunking Vaccine Myths RE VAERS

These rules apply to all threads and if you want to engage in personal attacks there are other sites on the Internet where you can do that. Our goal is for ATS to be above that. For members here to post like mature adults.
YOU are responsible for your own posts

And, as always...
Do not reply to this post.

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: Asmodeus3

I had no choice but to reject the figure, initially, as you failed to cite the source. Taking wild guesses and leaping from A to B to Z is what lays at the base of the entire house of cards.

A massive hoax is being perpetuated on the population. On one side, there are those dedicated to the responsible investigation of fact. On the other, people flinging mud and putting their fingers in their ears throwing what amounts to a tantrum. There are still an unfortunate few stuck in limbo, many for good reason, but a small number who commit the fallacy of holding opinions/guesswork at the same level as peer reviewed science and medicine.

The two do not compare. Those people in the middle deserve to have all the facts with none of the soothsaying.

The fatality rates given in your OP are not correct. You used the case fatality rate instead of the infection fatality rate. And you drew the wrong conclusions based upon this. You completely disregarded the asymptomatic cases and those who have minor infections and never get tested. Instead of using the IFR you used the CFR.

The rate of adverse reactions is completely incorrect as you tried to divide the number of reported cases in Florida registered in VAERS to the total number of shots in worldwide. Absolutely wrong with the wrong conclusions.

There are so many inconsistencies in your opening page that instead of debunking others you debunked your own arguments and beliefs.

Not to forget that you were insisting that 13 million shots have been vaccinated worldwide when the population of Florida is over 22 million.

So in a few words the opening page not only fails to do what is supposed to but serves the opposite purpose and exposed the arguments made from those who have supported mas vaccinations in the absence of any evidence.