Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Arbitrageur


I wrote a post years ago about oil and what different countries need the price per barrel to make money, and I think it is 80 per for Russia. Today they are only getting about 1/2 the price because of sanctions, and no one will insure the ships with Russian oil. What this means is that exporters demand more profit due to the higher risk of no insurance.

a reply to: Xtrozero
Unfortunately, the sanction on Russia of the $60 per barrel price cap has proven somewhat leaky in a figurative way, since Russia has purchased a "shadow fleet" of old ships in poor condition via a network of shell companies attempting to mask the Russian ownership. The "shadow fleet" is used to ship oil sold by Russia above the $60 price cap. In addition to the figurative leak of the price cap, the poor condition of the old ships in the fleet has resulted in some literal oil leaks, and many of these ships are uninsured since as you pointed out, they can't get insurance.

Revealed: Putin's sanctions-busting shadow fleet is spilling oil all over the world

The [leaking] Innova is just one of hundreds in the world’s so-called shadow fleet, a collection of often aging, poorly maintained ships sailing in defiance of Western sanctions — and spreading environmental harm without consequences.

A joint investigation by POLITICO and the not-for-profit journalism group SourceMaterial found at least nine instances of covert shadow fleet vessels leaving spills in the world’s waters since 2021, using satellite images from the SkyTruth NGO paired with shipping data from market analysis firm Lloyd’s List and commodity platform Kpler.

Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard told POLITICO the ships posed a “significant danger” to the marine environment. “The incidents [here] illustrate this.”

It’s a problem that’s only grown worse following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With Moscow under Western sanctions, an increasing number of tankers are ferrying illicit goods — and potential environmental devastation — across the globe. Not only are these vessels creaky and largely unregulated, they’re often uninsured, meaning that in case of a leak, or more serious spill, a government would struggle to hold them accountable.

So Russia is barely keeping its economy afloat, operating at a defecit, and rapidly depleting the reserves it had when the war started, partly by evading sanctions with this leaky shadow fleet shipping oil above the price cap, causing environmental problems all over the world. What is really devastating to Russia about a market price of $50 per barrel oil, is there is no evading that market price. They can't use a shadow fleet to ship oil at greater than $60 a barrel, if the market price is only $50 a barrel.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
So Russia is barely keeping it's economy afloat, operating at a defecit, and rapidly depleting the reserves it had when the war started, partly by evading sanctions with this leaky shadow fleet shipping oil above the price cap, causing environmental problems all over the world. What is really devastating to Russia about a market price of $50 per barrel oil, is there is no evading that market price. They can't use a shadow fleet to ship oil at greater than $60 a barrel, if the market price is only $50 a barrel.

I was a little off, here is a part of what I wrote in 2014 when fracking drove down the price of oil. The countries with more socialism-level programs need more per barrel.

Twp other side effects to all this and that may also be a player is Russia needs about $100 plus a barrel for their economy, and Valenzuela needs somewhere between $115 to $200 per barrel.

a reply to: Xtrozero
So, Russia is really in trouble if oil prices go to $50 per barrel. Actually, they are already in trouble economically. Half of their pre-invasion reserves have been frozen and they have burned through most of the other half and will likely exhaust what's left (only about 15% of what they started with) sometime next year.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
It looks like North Korean troops training in Russia are now confirmed. Some are saying when they show up fighting on the front lines, that's the start of World War III. But I think we have to see what happens. If the N Korean soldiers defect, they will probably be better off than they were in N Korea, so some are predicting mass defections, but only time will tell about that.

Jake Broe released an interesting video about the North Korean soldiers about 5 hours ago. I didn't know he spent 6 years in Korea. Because of that, he can recognize Korean being spoken in the video on N Koreans in Russia, confirming the confirmation of other sources it's not just rumor.

You are being LIED to about North Korean Soldiers


While he doesn't talk about whether or not the N Korean soldiers will defect, he shows a video of a N Korean defector interview and talks about another defector, who was shot 5 times by N Koreans as he entered S Korea, then a S Korean doctor saved him but said aside from the bullet wounds he was in the worst shape of any person the doctor had ever seen, suffering from a parasitic infection among other health problems.

Then Broe explains in detail why the N Korean soldiers can never go back to N Korea, so if they aren't killed in battle, what will become of them? I suppose it's not that important, since the 12,000 North Koreans is only about 10 days worth of Russian losses at 1200 soldiers a day.

Broe says the important thing to recognize is Putin wants the west to freak out about N Koreans entering the war, because N Korea has a 7 million man army, so Ukraine would have no hope when Putin's side has resources like that. But, it's just a bluff, because Broe says N Korea is not going to want to send many of its soldiers out of N Korea, partly because whoever leaves, can never return. If you don't understand why, watch the video, which explains it.

So Broe is in the camp that the N Korean soldiers showing up in Ukraine's battlefields is not really the start of WWIII, but Putin apparently wants the west to think it is. In any case it does seem like an escalation the American president should be reacting to, but he says that reaction will have to wait until after the US election in 15 days.

At about 24 minutes, there's an interesting segment about how Ukrainians in the occupied Donetsk region have been without running water for 2 years. Now they have running water, coming out of the gas pipes! You can see it in a video, I guess they hooked up water to the natural gas lines!

I guess lots of Russians don't have running water at all, and never have, so maybe coming out of the gas lines is better than no water at all? Jake Broe quips, they better be careful trying to use the toilet and lighting a smoke, there could be an explosion! (If they got the water and gas pipes reversed).

a reply to: Arbitrageur

For sure Transdneister (whatever it's spelled) is a guide to the future of Russian held areas of Ukraine. If Putin's got control of a region regardless of global opinion, by having boots on the ground it appears he's happy with that. Gives him and his successors options in the future when the Yanks lose interest in eastern Europe.

Looks like the EU is going to take control of Moldova according to initial voting counts.......... www.youtube.com... Doubt that will be the end of the matter following centuries of wrestling between the great powers for control of the Balkan's. I'm sure Putin's got a Plan B ready to implement when the time is right

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Pretty close "Transdniester" i had to google it.

As to the Moldovans joining the EU.

Looks like that will be the case with a razor-thin majority.

Will of the people and all that jazz, i mean look how close the Brexit vote went.

Personally, i think Putin's running out of plan Bs.

Nation circling to the drain and screaming to NK and Iran for handers, men and missiles, simply looks weak.

a reply to: andy06shake

Putin may be running out of Plan B's Andy but I guarantee there will be plenty of C's and D's ready to into effect. We are looking at control of a former state of the Soviet Union and looking at Ukraine things might well escalate from here very quickly.

Keep an eye on Georgia too. They are right now back in the Russian fold having a Russian friendly president in control. All this after the Sakashvilli affair looked like things were going EU's way. Elections soon over there too. Should be an interesting few weeks in that region to come. Thanks for the spelling help too

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Running out of those also ufoorbhunter.

Personally, i think he's just about on to plan F by now.

And now with NK troops proven to be on the field of war.

I think the likes of Shadowstorm missiles and long-range ATACMS will be authorized to be used on any target Ukraine deems viable rather soon.

I dont think Russia has another 6 mouths in them without some rather serious consequences occurring.

Just look at the state of Kurst Oblast to see where they are still failing to repel Ukraine for a start.

a reply to: andy06shake

I don't think Putin is that bothered about Kursk otherwise he'd have free up more troops in the south east and moved them up north. The fact is right now Russia is advancing in Ukraine slowly and steadily. Missiles are not really allowed to be used on Russia proper. Storm shadows are a red line and if they are to be used the like of Russia's equivalent can be used in return or even a battery of nukes transferred to Iran as a complimentary chess move. Our side knows the repurcussions of going to far when carrying out proxy wars against the Eastern powers. Putin will be bringing in asian troops from Korea yet that has always been a Russian tactic. Masses of asians from what we know today as the Stans FSU entities were sacrificed in WW2 in order to destroy Nazism. Truth is it works. Shame for the lads being sacrificed. I was down Lidl yesterday and the local farmers are doing the same. Loads of central asians in the backs of very old Trannie mini buses getting their weekly supplies. Our farmers use exactly the same tacticks as Putin in order to do their business. Everyone uses the asians to do the dirty work while keeping the city dwellers safe.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Oh he's bothered ufoorbhunter, his nation was invaded by a bunch of farmers with some surplus NATO toys.

That's apt to sting big-time recognition of the fact or otherwise it does not scream superpower.

And how many red lines have been crossed now?

Truth is Russia cannot win as long as Ukraine have the support of NATO, member or not.

And all that Russia will have served to achieve when this is all over and done with is to have more than doubled the borders they share with NATO nations.

Putin's days are numbered ufoorbhunter, and he only has himself to blame.

And he knows he cant use nukes unless he wants to live in a hole in the ground for the rest of his life.

Let's face it, it's pick a window time or thereabouts for that man, or at least in the post.

a reply to: andy06shake

Totally agree the Kursk debacle is of huge embaressment to Putin. Yet these things happen. Regios of Ukraine passed into either sides control during WW2. It swayed this way and that way, yet when push came to shove the war of attrition won out at the end of the day, or 1945 to put it another way. Ukraine can't take the losses long term that Russia can. It's just mathematics. Putin will win this in the long term.................... That is if outside funding for this proxy war ceases. As you correctly state, as long as NATO is involved Puti is going to have a very hard time taking the whole of Ukraine. Yet does he really want that? Russia controlling western Ukraine is going to have what Israel has in Gaza and west bank with a population permanently opposed to the implementation of Russian rule. Russia will face an underground army. Sergei Markov stated in 2022 pre SMO that Russia only wanted Donbas and New Russia up to Odessa. Any more will mean a civil uprising. To many eztents Russia now has got what it wanted. Plus a frozen conflict will hinder NATO colonialisation of the western regions. It's win win right now for Putin and if we see his acquintance and friend Donald Trump take control of the Yanks then he's onto the homeward straight with very small jumps to go. November will dictate how things pan out from here in addition to the freezing winter about to descend on the battle field. Throw in a regional war in the Middle East that Putin can use his leverage to forment when needed as Russia / SU has do in the past and we have a number of unknown approaching. Interesting times to say the least

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter

Putin may be running out of Plan B's Andy but I guarantee there will be plenty of C's and D's ready to into effect.

Well plan A and B didn't work, and if plan C and D were any good they would be plan A and B.

We do not know what kind of time crunch Putin is dealing with when it comes to the Oligarchies and population. Are they ready to just go another 2 years with very little movement? Now we see Ukraine attacking deep Russia to hit the main shipping and manufacturing lines and Ukraine's airpower is coming on board in a big way in 2025.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Interesting times indeed.

I dont think Trump will win for the same reason as last time.

Well, that and his abortion debacle.

As to the Middle East predicament, i would not even know where to begin there.

Best press on through stuff to get done.

As always, enjoyed the convo ufoorbhunter.

a reply to: andy06shake

Lol enjoyed it too Andy. Yes best get some actual work done 5pm approaching. Have a nice afternoon

There are early reports of a Russian explosives factory being attacked by Ukraine:

Ukraine strikes key Russian explosives manufacturer, general staff says

Ukraine has struck a manufacturer of military explosives deep inside Russian territory overnight, as well as storage infrastructure at a military airfield in the Lipetsk region, Kyiv’s General Staff has said in a statement.

For their part, Russian air defence units downed 110 Ukrainian drones over the country, Russia’s Ministry of Defence said Sunday, including one over the Moscow region, 43 over the border region of Kursk, and 27 over the southwestern Lipetsk region.

Russia always claims they shot down everything fired by Ukraine, even when they clearly didn't. If they shot down 90%, that would be pretty good, but 10% still reach the targets in that case. Ukraine usually doesn't manage to shoot down over 90% of the Russian drones and missiles either. I suppose we will have to wait for satellite imagery to see how many of these drones actually hit the targets, since we can't trust Russia's claims they shot down everything.

A youtuber made a video about it:

Ukraine Hits the Largest RU Explosives Plant 900km Inside Russia!

I'm still looking for satellite confirmation they actually hit it, but it was a target.

Another Russian oligarch "falls" out of a window. This happens so often, I'm not sure it's even news anymore:

Russian Oligarch Found Dead in Moscow after Falling Out of Window

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: Arbitrageur

For sure Transdneister (whatever it's spelled) is a guide to the future of Russian held areas of Ukraine.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Pretty close "Transdniester" i had to google it.

I have always called it Transnistria. That's the name of the Wikipedia article, and there's even another article about Names of Transnistria. I didn't realize that 6 weeks ago:

The Supreme Council passed a law on 5 September 2024 which banned the use of the term “Transnistria” within the region, imposing a fine of 360 rubles or up to 15 days imprisonment for using the name in public.

So I guess we better not call Transnistria "Transnistria" when we are in Transnistria.

Actually that's one place I plan to avoid because it seems like the criminal element that runs the place is even worse than in Russia, though Russia seems to be catching up as time goes on and they limit freedoms of Russians more and more.

There are three official names in the wiki article (Russian, Moldovan, and Ukrainian), and then for unofficial names, in English there 10 other names listed in addition to Transnistria. But the names of the Wiki articles haven't changed yet, I don't know if they ever will. Maybe Transnistria will sanction wikipedia for having articles named "Transnistria" and "Names_of_Transnistria".

As far as the Moldova election, it looks like the pro-EU candidate got a lot more votes than the pro-Russia candidate, but now there will be a run-off election. But the vote for whether or not to join the EU was very close. Despite all the Russian interference in Moldova's voting, it looks like they decided to pursue EU membership, so Putin will probably cry himself to sleep in his luxurious palace tonight.

Moldovans, Very Narrowly, Choose to Look Toward Europe, Not Russia

A referendum that constitutionally enshrines a national objective to join the E.U. passed by a thin margin. The incumbent pro-E.U. president won the most votes in a concurrent election, but faces a runoff.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

If we hadn't backed Ukraine's resistance of Putin's invasion then Russian annexation of the whole of Moldova would have been a foregone conclusion. His attention would then have turned towards The Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
It seems he will now have to try and achieve his goals by other more clandestine methods rather than military force.

news.sky.com...

UK to give Ukraine £2.26bn loan to help fight Russia's invasion - but Kyiv won't have to repay a penny

Rather than expect Ukraine to pay a penny back, the entire loan - once finalised - will instead be covered by the profits made from hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Russian sovereign assets that Western nations have frozen since the start of the full-scale war in February 2022.

This mechanism is seen as a way to force Vladimir Putin to start paying for the damage his invasion has inflicted on Ukraine - but one that has a lower risk of legal challenge than simply giving the frozen Russian assets directly to the Ukrainian government.

"By using the money generated from these sanctioned Russian assets, we can help turn the tables on Putin's war machine," the defence secretary said.

More potential conflict in the contest for control of eastern Europe between east and west.....................

"Watershed moment as Georgia goes to polls in tussle between Russia and west"

"Georgians will vote on Saturday in a critical election that could determine whether one of the once most pro-western former Soviet states will veer towards a more authoritarian, Russia-aligned path.

For the past three decades, Georgia – a country of 3.6 million people nestled in the Caucasus mountains – has maintained strong pro-western aspirations, with polls showing up to 80% of its residents favour joining the EU.

In recent years however, the government, led by the populist Georgian Dream (GD) party, has increasingly shifted away from the west in favour of Russia, showing reluctance to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

The parliamentary elections are seen by many as the most important since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, said Kornely Kakachia, the director of the Georgian Institute of Politics. “This is a watershed moment that will determine whether the country becomes a sovereign democracy integrated with the west or falls back into Russia’s sphere of influence,” he said in an interview in the capital, Tbilisi." www.theguardian.com...

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
For the past three decades, Georgia – a country of 3.6 million people nestled in the Caucasus mountains – has maintained strong pro-western aspirations, with polls showing up to 80% of its residents favour joining the EU.

In recent years however, the government, led by the populist Georgian Dream (GD) party, has increasingly shifted away from the west in favour of Russia, showing reluctance to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

A poll one year ago showed 79% favor EU membership.

So if there has been a shift from that number, I don't think "recent years" can be a good description, it should say something like "in the last year" or "in recent months", though I'm not sure how much it's actually shifted since I haven't seen a more recent poll showing the shift.

From your source, it sounds more like this Russian billionaire throwing his weight around within the pro-Russian party and threatening those who oppose the pro-Russia party, so isn't this more of a KGB-style strong-arm tactic rather than a democratic shift in public opinion? If he's successful in eliminating the other party with threats, and it becomes a one party state, it's not really a democracy anymore, right?

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe and an expert on the region, said: “What is at stake here is Georgian democracy. There is a real risk that the country becomes a one-party state. The Georgian Dream party has been pretty open about the direction it wants to go.”

GD, which has been in power since 2012, was founded by the shadowy billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s and is viewed by many friends and foes alike as Georgia’s most powerful figure even though he has not held public office for more than a decade.

In recent weeks, Ivanishvili and his allies have vowed to ban all major opposition parties and remove opposition lawmakers after the elections, labelling them as “criminals” and “traitors”.

During a rare public rally on Wednesday in central Tbilisi, Ivanishvili doubled down on the pledge, having promised earlier to hold a “Nuremberg trial” of members of UNM, the main opposition party. UNM was founded by Georgia’s former president Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently in prison on charges of abuse of power that his allies say are politically motivated.

GD’s central campaign message has been “Choose peace, not war”, implying that the opposition would pull Georgia into a Ukraine-style conflict, while only their leadership can ensure peace and stability.

So isn't the message "Vote pro-Russia party or we in Georgia can be the next 'Ukraine' attacked by Russia"?

As far as Georgia being the next Ukraine, I don't know if Georgians realize this, but Putin has his hands pretty full right now with Ukraine, in fact Russia basically just gave an even bigger swath of Russian territory to China than what Ukraine captured in Kursk, to appease China since Russia doesn't have the military strength to resist, and it also will completely collapse without China's economic support. I mean collapse faster, it's already collapsing economically, just more slowly thanks to support from China.

At this rate, I'm skeptical that Putin will live long enough to meet his objective of capturing Kyiv. Russia is advancing, but see the graph in the next post to put the Russian advances in perspective. Since Putin can't meet his objectives in the war he's already in, I don't see him starting another war with Georgia. So I don't think Georgian voters have to worry about war with Russia anytime soon. However they probably don't like the idea of being labeled as a "traitor" for voting pro-EU that Ivaishvili and his cronies are apparently pushing for.