The Ripples Before a Recession

There are always signs before a recession comes. We’re probably already in one, but I mean before the mass of people start feeling it. Here are things I’ve noticed.

People are selling their “toys”. Tons of ads for boats, rvs, vintage cars, antiques and all other non essentials.
We are starting to see some vacation homes open up, not a lot but some. Home builders are lowing their prices!! This is huge and hasn’t happened in a while. Guess people can’t afford 1mil for starter homes!!

I’ve noticed that some in the service industry are feeling it. Pest control, cleaning services, landscaping. All the things that are considered luxury services. Things you can do on your own but you pay people for the convenience.

Stores are empty. Those in the stores don’t seem to be buying much. The people on the lower rungs on the ladder feel it first.
Desperation, second jobs, sometimes criminal activity.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I just saw that the CFO of Bed Bath & Beyond "fell" from a NYC high rise. My mind went to the great depression when people were jumping from buildings to kill themselves.

a reply to: JAGStorm
i think we have been in a recession for some time now, im wondering if we are sliding into a depression.

originally posted by: autopat51
a reply to: JAGStorm
i think we have been in a recession for some time now, im wondering if we are sliding into a depression.

I'm seeing the same. They won't tell people we're in a depression until it's in full swing, just like Biden declaring inflation is at zero percent days before the multi-trillion dollar 'Inflation Reduction Act' was passed. Throwing trillions at something that doesn't exist only makes sense to a very few loyal followers.

The only hope of restoring prosperity to America lies with a change in power, and even that's questionable with the old, compromised guard at the top.

The debt under Obama was off the charts with the ACA and all the 'too big to fail' bailouts. Biden has taken those tactics to new heights, and is pandering to those who don't realize they will spend their entire lives living at a less profitable level to pay for enriching the one percent pulling the strings.

Mormons are the only organized group that is prepared to face a depression that I know of; I expect their membership numbers to vastly increase in the near future. I don't see how the bubble can get much bigger before it bursts.

a reply to: JAGStorm

"Vintage cars"?

Now there's something I might want to look in to. Always room in my garage for a weekend joyride!

Just got back from the farmers market, and the stalls were full. Glad I beat the rush (and the heat; expected high today is 106° F!)

Stores (grocery and other) here have full shelves, though prices are higher than I'd like for some things. Then again, I passed on a market's deal of $5.49 @ lb for boneless ribeye roast last week because I already have several in the freezer.

Lots of Asian and Middle Eastern immigrants in my city, so I benefit from multicultural resources (and inspirations) for food. Much of it very pennywise!

a reply to: JAGStorm

They are going for a reset not a recession..

The recession will seem like the good old days after the war starts. It's an established pattern.

Blame whom ever you want but the corporate cabal is sitting on 4 trillion dollars that could end the recession tomorrow if they would sink some of that money into infrastructure.

And there are ways to prosper during a recession if you have a little disposable income to invest in select index funds.

I see help wanted signs everywhere....

originally posted by: JAGStorm
People are selling their “toys”. Tons of ads for boats, rvs

I.e. all the stuff bought during Covid on "low monthly payments".

Esp. with boats and RVs, ownership means maintaining them; they both need to be stored correctly or things get bad. Wonder how many for sale include mold and racoon poo!

Doom Porn Guy here

Hi

You good?

So recession for 5 years is like the best outcome

A great depression and something worst is the most likely outcome

this will be 10x 2008

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Doom Porn Guy here

Hi

You good?

So recession for 5 years is like the best outcome

A great depression and something worst is the most likely outcome

this will be 10x 2008

I believe you are right but I think we have some time.
I think we will have some low times, but then tshtf will come after that.
Kicking people when they are down.
How do they do that?

Food, housing, utilities.

Those will be the three breaking points.

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Doom Porn Guy here

Hi

You good?

So recession for 5 years is like the best outcome

A great depression and something worst is the most likely outcome

this will be 10x 2008

I believe you are right but I think we have some time.
I think we will have some low times, but then tshtf will come after that.
Kicking people when they are down.
How do they do that?

Food, housing, utilities.

Those will be the three breaking points.

It’s correct for a number of reasons

Nowhere in human history the the entire global markets # down

But not only that we shut down and handed out cash like sweets

Only in 2008 did we bail out the bankers to the tune of 500 billion

We have already indebted our grandchildren

What we have don’t now is far worst than that

We’ve destroyed the planet

What is going to happen now is De-globalisation

The next 5 years will be rebuilding supply chains coupled with a decade long recession

You can Call it global depression tbh

Get solar panels and make it easier

The tiling black out will last for years

The food shortages will see global war ensue

a reply to: tamusan

He has a class action lawsuit filed against him for "pump and dumping" in relation to Bed Bath and Beyond's stock price. I don't think he wanted to deal with the consequences of the lawsuit.

House is paid off, some money in the bank, only owe eight grand on the 20 subaru and could pay that off tomorrow if we wanted to. No credit card debt either. Have some food and other essential supplies in stock to buffer a downturn. Should get more cat food stocked up....could be hell if the kitties don't get their food and treats, they like eating and do like meat, and last I checked we are made out of meat. Bought three new spray bottles just incase we run out of catfood someday, a little spray of water sends them away.

There were more empty spots on the shelves at the store today than usual when we went shopping. Around here in the fall, people build up their stock and with prices going up higher every time you go to the store, people are getting the hint this is not going to go away.

The problem is that both daughters have debt and we will have to help them out for a while if everything goes sour till they lose their homes to the bank....then they and their families will probably move into our house...so much for a stressless retirement.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

not always the great depressions and there have been 2 with that name are bookends of 2 crash points

the firs one that sends everyone into the depression and the one that brings everyone out its sharp as it kills of the zombie culture that appears when all people can do is survive..

the first great depression lasted 25 years between those points the 2nd was 7 years ours has already been 14 years and you can see the damage done/ zombie economy that has arisen,. this will be sharp but it should also be short..

we should have been looking at more wealth creation rather than printing wealth..

a reply to: TritonTaranis

simply put its a printed zombie economy will vanish leaving the non zombie companies standing, it should be short/sharp but at its core is no different to the last 2 great depressions, what will need to be rebuilt in American parlance is the mom and pops middle class economic backbone killed off by this zombie culture that has gone all wibbly activist but doesn't know how to create, maintain or sustain a wealthy society..

the west is in for a trying period as globalism comes crashing down, again.. am sure we'll have our nobel peace winners claim it prevents the very war it starts..

a reply to: JAGStorm

there are a couple of other links wroth considering that link our period to a number of others..

technological changes altering the balance of power leveling the playing feild between the empire of the day and its rivals..

economic punishments and vendettas lead to wars not from them.. the big ones for us was the vendetta between France/Germany starting in the Franco/Prussian war with Germany imposing economic punishments on France that6 created the foundations for WW! and France returning that on Germany at Versailles..

we can see the current balance of power change in terms of technology and a massive vendetta playing out that cost the entire world, that vendetta lies at the heart of this ongoing misery as it did between France/Germany at the end of the 19th and start of the 20th century..

a reply to: JAGStorm

So tonight on the news, the Teamsters and UPS has a labor contract that expires July 2023. Why are we hearing this a year out? They are expecting there to be no resolution before forced to strike.

So if you thing times are hard now…wait until the Amazon boxes stop flowing. But more than that, about 70% of all business shipping happens through UPS. Something like 1.7 million shipping customers and 11.8 million delivery customers in 220 countries every day.

So if you need to order something to get by like a plow wheel for the garden, now might be a good time.

a reply to: Ahabstar

Something like 1.7 million shipping customers and 11.8 million delivery customers in 220 countries every day.

So if you need to order something to get by like a plow wheel for the garden, now might be a good time.

I've been saying this for a while.
Get quality, long lasting items. Clothing, tools, kitchen goods. Think of things that don't require electricity.

For example. I have a manual coffee grinder, manual clothes washer, things to cook on without electricity/propane.
Items for electricity free light, solar, candles etc.
Backup batteries. Books on survival skills, foragine, medicine, husbandry. It's never too late to learn.
I feel I'm way ahead of the curve with survivalism, but I'm still learning.

It's ok if nothing happens. At least we will have that knowledge for weather emergencies.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Might want to look into a seed press. Sunflower oil, peanut oil and walnut oil will be handy for different reasons/uses.

originally posted by: Ahabstar
a reply to: JAGStorm

Might want to look into a seed press. Sunflower oil, peanut oil and walnut oil will be handy for different reasons/uses.

I actually have been looking at them!!