It' has started-Economic Downturn

It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out this was going to happen, but it still came as a surprise to me that the pull back in retail sales has started this early. Coming off the COVID lockdowns that lasted, in many cases for 2 years, I'd expected the typical consumer to keep on spending through August. And that assumption was based upon the reports of a large number of people taking to the roads for their Summer vacations. Where I live we have onlly seen a limited number of travelers, far less than expected and far less than we would have normally see pre-COVID, (I live in a Tourist attraction area).

www.wsj.com...

From the article:

Retail sales—a measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurants—fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in May from the previous month, dropping from April’s revised 0.7% increase, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
A sharp drop in vehicle sales—due to high prices, low inventory and rising interest on car loans—played an outsize role in the decline in month-over-month retail spending. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5% last month.
Excluding gasoline station sales, retail spending fell 0.7% in May from April—a sign that high gas prices are taking up a greater share of consumers’ spending.

Those who did travel in June will see an unpleasant surprise on their credit card statements reflecting the exhorbitant prices of fuel. That will, of course, further depress retail sales in July and going forward.

The pain at the pump is going to hit those who commute to work in the Cities the absolute worst; most everyone I know living in the cities has an average 60 mile daily round trip from home to work and back. I would have to guess this rise in gas prices will further accelerate the trend toward working from home.

What also surprised me was this and I find this to be highly troubling:

Companies are struggling with higher inflation, which they say is increasingly hard to pass on to consumers. Some large retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. in recent weeks reported steep profit declines as rising supply-chain, wage and inflation-related costs ate into earnings.

Lower earnings will translate into layoffs and further declines in stock prices.

It's going to be a very difficult year for Americans.
What have fellow ATS'ers seen?

Traveling is up, but the "omiyage " from visiting areas are down. ( japadventure.com... )

a reply to: TonyS

Here in Southern IN, I travel to about 4-5 area cities to check on food stocks/prices and gas prices. I see more and more empty shelves and exorbitant food costs for the shelves that have the items. I see almost $6 a gallon gas every other week, and I see HELP WANTED signs up everywhere. And I also see very, very few people that think anything is wrong. They think all is well and continue to buy just enough food for supper while they plan their vacations.

I have been told I need to live instead of always thinking of the negative and "hoarding" that 10 gallons of water.

it still came as a surprise to me that the pull back in retail sales has started this early.

It came as a surprise to me that it's taken this long. With rent nearly doubling in most places and the cost of feeding a family costing so much more and wages being stagnant, people have been going backwards since covid hit.

The cost of gasoline needed to drive to and from work has left the minimum wage earners in a catch 22; if you don't work, you can't support your family, if you do work, you don't have enough left after transportation costs to support your family.

Way to go, Joementia!

originally posted by: TruthJava
a reply to: TonyS

Here in Southern IN, I travel to about 4-5 area cities to check on food stocks/prices and gas prices. I see more and more empty shelves and exorbitant food costs for the shelves that have the items. I see almost $6 a gallon gas every other week, and I see HELP WANTED signs up everywhere. And I also see very, very few people that think anything is wrong. They think all is well and continue to buy just enough food for supper while they plan their vacations.

I have been told I need to live instead of always thinking of the negative and "hoarding" that 10 gallons of water.

Good grief! And that's in Southern IN? Empty shelves? And $6.00 a gallon gas? That's amazing. I am quite surprised.

a reply to: nugget1

Yea, the rent thing is just beyond belief. I've read reports of rents doubling and then doubling again year over year in some places.

This can not end well.

Thanks, Joe Biden.
Thanks, democrats.

Things are snowballing. There is still a baby formula shortage so bad that physicians are seeing more babies with malnutrition, here in the USA.

Now tampons are disappearing off shelves. My daughter said the only brand she can use for medical reasons has disappeared entirely from store shelves and she had to buy off Amazon. Projections are that the shortage will last through 2023.

What will be next? There will be more and more as supply chains are broken by the price of gas. Instituted on the first week of Biden's administration by his Dictator Orders.

We are planning our vacation at places with a kitchen where we will cook rather than eat out as eating out has become overly expensive. We normally rent a large BNB and share the cost, this time we are renting a condo and putting up to 4 to a room, some on the floor, to save money so we can do the activities we want to do that have skyrocketed in price.

I get gas at 3/4 of a tank now because everyday the price jumps exponentially.

I have stopped buying anything I don't need that is non-essential, like clothes, I have plenty.

But I am buying extra of essentials before the prices skyrocket once again and stocking up on essentials like canned foods and flour that I keep in the deep freeze for the upcoming wheat (food) shortage that Biden promised would come.

I make plane reservations to visit grandkids so far in advance that the prices are affordable, I have some that are 6 months out because not long ago I waited and by 3 months out the price jumped exponentially. I now await the airlines to release flights for next summer, because I know I won't be able to afford them by then.

My shopping habits have greatly changed, COVID taught me a lot. Namely that going to a physical store is more expensive even if the item is cheaper because I normally can't resist an extra item or 2. So as much as possible I compare prices online and buy the single item I need, saving money even if the cost is a little higher than the store due to gas and the temptation to buy something else.

(by the way your computer/browser saves what you shop for and the price increases each time you leave the computer and go back to shop for the item again) To stop this use one computer to shop around and do comparison shopping all at once. Then clear your browser and use a tool like CCleaner to get rid of trackers. Next go to a different computer and clean it too. Finally purchase the item on a different computer that you did not use for comparison shopping. This saved me $200 recently because going back and looking again at a different time made the price soar.

I am taking the time to use and learn strategies I never would have done before.

Going to get to the point soon that it's more economical to stay home than pay to fill up car with gas to go to work! May be part why so many Help Wanted signs every where - here included. Stay home, sell stuff online or do odd jobs..... until the Govt decides to go digital cash, then everybody's screwed!

originally posted by: GlobalGold
Going to get to the point soon that it's more economical to stay home than pay to fill up car with gas to go to work! May be part why so many Help Wanted signs every where - here included. Stay home, sell stuff online or do odd jobs..... until the Govt decides to go digital cash, then everybody's screwed!

I has already become more economical to purposely do something to get fired.

That way you can go on unemployment benefits or welfare if you are eligible. Then stay home and save a bundle on gas, clothing, transportation, lunch, etc. Then shop online and get even your groceries delivered and voila, you are living better than if you were working.

a reply to: TruthJava

Here in Southern IN, I travel to about 4-5 area cities to check on food stocks/prices and gas prices. I see more and more empty shelves and exorbitant food costs for the shelves that have the items.

It is the exact opposite here. The shelves are filled to the brim, because people aren't buying.
I noticed that grocery stores are doing some shifty things like leaving meat out longer than it should be or they are repackaging. I saw a lot of bloated packs of chicken. People don't know that means it's bad or going bad!

The prices are nuts. I saw the people were posting in some areas a bag of chips was priced at $8.
Can you imagine that. It's not that bad here now but I'm sure it's coming. Not that people need to eat chips but it's also not somethign that you expect to cost that.

originally posted by: GlobalGold
Going to get to the point soon that it's more economical to stay home than pay to fill up car with gas to go to work! May be part why so many Help Wanted signs every where - here included. Stay home, sell stuff online or do odd jobs..... until the Govt decides to go digital cash, then everybody's screwed!

Companies want people to come back to the office but now with gas so expensive, people really don't want to go back to commuting.

a reply to: TonyS
If businesses want to keep their same profit margins then yeah put the prices up and watch sales fall

Or...

They can sacrifice some of their margins keep the cost about the same and get more business.


It shouldn't be just the consumer that takes a hit in the pocket. The companies need too aswell.

I would much rather have lots of sales with smaller margins.

a reply to: The2Billies

(by the way your computer/browser saves what you shop for and the price increases each time you leave the computer and go back to shop for the item again) To stop this use one computer to shop around and do comparison shopping all at once. Then clear your browser and use a tool like CCleaner to get rid of trackers. Next go to a different computer and clean it too. Finally purchase the item on a different computer that you did not use for comparison shopping. This saved me $200 recently because going back and looking again at a different time made the price soar.

Thanks for that information. My wife reports having had this problem, even on Amazon.

a reply to: TonyS

I live in a tourist town, and we haven't really seen all that many tourists so far.

a reply to: TonyS

And so it begins. . . . The Bidening of America.

a reply to: [post=26539996]TonyS[/post

Here in small town central Tx; the town is a lake living community. Our house has doubled in valuation per taxes in 1 year! A 12 pack double roll of bounty paper towels $37.00, Regular sized hellmans mayonnaise $8.00, 1large avocado $4.00, 1 watermelon $8.00, chicken legs and thighs are reasonable still $2.00/lbish, they hardly ever have chicken breast and when they do it is verrry expensive, beef expensive. Brand loyalty has gone out the window, people are buying what is cheapest.
Gas around $4.80 for regular. House building going on like crazy still, houses are still selling quickly, help wanted signs everywhere, coworkers at my new 3/day a week job (for fun and exercise) are reporting their rent is almost doubling when due for renewal. Most people are very concerned.

Remember Brandon’s campaign slogan? It was “Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead”.
What a douche bag.

I paid $5.39 a gallon the other day for gas and at the grocery store I saw a pound of ham for $7.99 and its usually $3.99.

On amazon your wife needs to comparison shop without signing in. Once she signs in they keep track of what she is looking at on their end. So I don't sign in to any sites when comparison shopping. OR if they won't let me comparison shop without signing in I use my "throw away" email not connected to any form of payment to comparison shop. Then do what I suggested, followed by a real sign in only when ready to purchase.

We have to be extra smart these days of unfettered inflation and rapidly emptying store shelves.

a reply to: TonyS


My daughter works for a Credit Union in Denver processing loans. The loan department is sitting around twiddling their thumbs... they have only had 4 vehicle loan applications in the past week.

On top of the signs of the recession setting in, they are worrying about the coming layoffs.