Is America the Real Victim of Anti-Russia Sanctions?

www.tabletmag.com...


A nice article about the wrong assumptions elite economists made when planning the sanctions and calculating the size of the Russian economy, if you are into this stuff you probably know most of what is said like:
GDP PPP vs GDP nominal. The fake value of the service sector vs industry

Seldom has the West so grossly misjudged an economy’s global significance. French economist Jacques Sapir, a renowned specialist of the Russian economy who teaches at the Moscow and Paris schools of economics, explained recently that the war in Ukraine has “made us realize that the Russian economy is considerably more important than what we thought.” For Sapir, one big reason for this miscalculation is exchange rates. If you compare Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) by simply converting it from rubles into U.S. dollars, you indeed get an economy the size of Spain’s. But such a comparison makes no sense without adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP), which accounts for productivity and standards of living, and thus per-capita welfare and resource use. Indeed, PPP is the measure favored by most international institutions, from the IMF to the OECD. And when you measure Russia’s GDP based on PPP, it’s clear that Russia’s economy is actually more like the size of Germany’s, about $4.4 trillion for Russia versus $4.6 trillion for Germany. From the size of a small and somewhat ailing European economy to the biggest economy in Europe and one of the largest in the world—not a negligible difference.

I am not an economist. I don't pretend to be so for now I can only take this with a grain of salt.

Russia’s economy is further distorted by ignoring global trade flows, in which Sapir estimates that Russia “may account for maybe as much as 15%.” While Russia is not the largest producer of oil in the world, for example, it has been the largest exporter of it, ahead even of Saudi Arabia. The same is true for many other essential products such as wheat—the world’s most important food crop, with Russia controlling about 19.5% of global exports—nickel (20.4%), semi-finished iron (18.8%), platinum (16.6%), and frozen fish (11.2%).

I take this as Russia exports things of actual value, unlike billion-dollar movie blockbusters. No matter what happens people are going to want to buy the things that Russia has.

One telling barometer for this dynamic is oil. With Western oil sanctions on the world’s largest oil exporter, prices have predictably skyrocketed, rising from around $75 a barrel at the beginning of the year up to over $110 today. But countries that have refused to participate in sanctions are now taking advantage of the opportunity to negotiate for Russian energy deliveries at steep discounts. If Russia is still able to sell oil around the world, countries like India are able to negotiate for below-market prices, and Western consumers are being hammered with inflated prices, who is really being sanctioned?

It seems to me that sanctions have failed at ending the war. Sure it has inconvenienced Russia but who are they hurting more. Gas prices are up, food prices are up, and inflation is rising while Russia strengthens trade bonds with other countries.
By the time NATO countries no longer need Russian fuel Russia may not need them. So what is the point with all of it?

I believe the sanctions achieved the exact desired effects that those who put them in place wanted. That's all I can say. I think they knew it wouldn't work the way they said, but it provided a crucially needed scapegoat. No matter what, the Biden administration is more at fault than putin or any sanctions, for what's happening to our country.

Possibly by design 😎 especially the seized yachts 😎

It's funny you speak of Russian fuel. Since 2015 the energy sector has been moving to shale sourced LNG, away from oil. Oil digs take 3-6 years to manifest their results, LNG digs take 3-6 months. LNG energy is also most native to areas which need them most, unlike oil.

America has been an isolationist nation for decades and decades, and is capable of complete energy independence. The only economic allegiance we really need to stay ahead of the rest of the world moving forward is Mexico, and laugh all you might at such an idea, but the demographics do not lie. In 10 years Mexico's infrastructure is going to make Russia and China absolutely irrelevant. They're also right next door to, you guessed it, America.

What the rest of the world needs, namely Russia and China, is fertilizer to grow their crops and feed their people. Both nations are market dependant for food because their biomes are not conducive to proper growth otherwise. What the USA doesn't need nearly as badly are those same fertilizers. China is already hoarding theirs to feed their decimated pork herds, and buying up anything and everything already grown for the same reason.

What will Russia be left with? If you expect Xi to take pity on Putin, after he lied to him about how he would swiftly take Ukraine and they would see no agroeconomic negatives then I think you are wishing in one hand and won't have much to put in the other. If Russia knocks on that door again they will only leave with anything under the ownership of the CCP.

Russia at this point cannot be an isolationist, and they don't have the dire support of any isolationists as Europe does. One in five of the Russian population has medication resistant tuberculosis, their workforce is dwindling quickly and is too specialized to adapt- let alone the lack of educational standards in any case, the Russian population is also ravaged by alcoholism and heroin addiction, and life for even the people in the green belt is especially costly and difficult by simple survival standards. Russia needed almost 20% of the world's export of wheat, now they are getting what?

Russia needed to take Ukraine to avoid the backlash of her own cancerous internal policies, and in failing has doomed herself. She was already doomed for reasons stated above, and with Putin's behavior of constantly shutting down any who would oppose him there is resultantly nobody to replace him. He will be the one who is there simply to turn the lights off, because Russia has no future anymore.

Surely times are tough the world over, but American lights will stay on, our crops will still grow, our tech industry will still thrive, and our bases will stay ready. Russia cannot say the same, and her waving of the nuclear card should be a vivid indication that her leaders know this. This ends in three ways for Russia. Massive quagmire in what is now the slavic version of Afghanistan, being owned by the CCP since they are the only significant power (though also failing themselves) who will possibly give Russia the time of day, or destructive nuclear war akin to the bullet Hitler put through his brain on a national scale.

a reply to: Grimpachi

Yeah, but Russian cars don't have emission controls now.

Clearly, America is winning based on that.

I'm sure somebody will come to explain how all the data is wrong and all the indicators we've used for this are no longer valid or misleading. Before long they'll be giving us new definitions to erase the clear failure of the policies to achieve the goals.

I didn't read the article, but yes. If we cared about the sanctions working we'd have been pumping oil as fast as we can first and foremost. So dumb. Just one more easily avoidable failure the citizens have to pay for in perpetuity.

a reply to: AstroDog

You have an interesting opinion on it all.

One thing I completely disagree with you on is the claim that the US is isolationist. Maybe our understanding of the meaning of that term differs greatly.

Our electronic industry could flourish however that remains dependent on imports of rare earth elements which I don't see changing in the near future. We have enough stockpiled for about 6 months if China stopped supplying them.

I am not convinced that your evaluation of China and Russia's relationship or of what Russia had told China to expect from this war.

For all intents, Russia has shown no sign of being in a hurry to end the conflict in any way. It doesn't add up.

a reply to: Grimpachi

Is America the Real Victim of Anti-Russia Sanctions?

America was the target of Russian sanctions.

Yes!

a reply to: Klassified

" America was the target of Russian sanctions. "

Yes , and it was just Announced that Our " Great Leader " Joe is Lowering Our Gas Prices from 5 Dollars a Gallon to 7 Dollars a Gallon . Praise Big Joe , Praise Him !

a reply to: Grimpachi
The sanctions arent just hurting America but also Europe.

If the sanctions weren't hurting US why did Biden beg venezuela for their oil?

does the US even enough Oil supplies in their reserves?

I'm finding it very difficult to believe the mess we're in wasn't planned at the highest levels. Even the dumbest among us knew at the beginning that sanctions world feed mass inflation world-wide, and Russia would still have plenty of trading partners; how could world leaders and talking bobbleheads possibly miss that? I don't think they did; it took Biden or his reps to visit hesitant countries and suddenly they would change their resistant stance. Money, or the 'grand plan' must have been shared, IMO.

Surely the following action was considered long ago, and TPTB have a plan?

The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has authorized Russian troops, planes and ships to deploy to Nicaragua for purposes of training, law enforcement or emergency response.

In a decree published this week, and confirmed by Russia on Thursday, Ortega will allow Russian troops to carry out law enforcement duties, “humanitarian aid, rescue and search missions in emergencies or natural disasters.”

[apnews.com...]

a reply to: Grimpachi

Of course Russia knew these sanctions were coming if they invaded Ukraine and obviously had a plan to counter them, in the short term at least.

I think the important thing, is for the west to hold strong… it’ll hurt Russia more in the long term. The west just has to hold strong and take the short term damage with ease.

originally posted by: Subaeruginosa
a reply to: Grimpachi

Of course Russia knew these sanctions were coming if they invaded Ukraine and obviously had a plan to counter them, in the short term at least.

So you're saying they knew of a problem and planned for the outcome, but decided to only plan for the short term even though they intend to occupy or support separatist governments there in perpetuity? This sounds like top tier cope.

This is all starting to look frighteningly similar to COVID. Complete irrational denial in the face of overwhelming evidence. Taking draconian measures for an artificial crisis. Because Russia. We're allowing Russia to break finance like COVID broke science.

a reply to: Subaeruginosa

It will take years to accomplish what you are talking about and in that time Russia will strengthen ties with nations that aren't participating in the sanctions. Which is the majority of the world.

It has more chance of backfiring on us and weakening us. In the meantime, 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops are being killed a day. That is according to Ukrainian officials which included Zelensky.

In fact, I am watching a video right now covering the whole thing with how news is being broken about Ukraine losing.

I am only about 7 minutes into the video. Here is the link.
t.me...

Basically what it is boiling down to is Ukraine doesn't have years. Their forces have been decimated many times over.

The west holding strong will not change the tide of the war and if the west can't incentivize Russia with lifting sanctions for some sort of peace deal it will be to the ruin of Ukraine.

originally posted by: Subaeruginosa
a reply to: Grimpachi

I think the important thing, is for the west to hold strong… it’ll hurt Russia more in the long term. The west just has to hold strong and take the short term damage with ease.

Ummm...with ease...?

Maybe it's easy for you to pay double...triple...and quadruple for basic commodities...but the average Joe and Jane is going to have to decide...Heat in the cold weather...or food...

Short term...?

There's nothing short term about the major recession and possible depression the west is going to suffer...

There's a perfect storm of confluences all threatening at the same time...


There's not going to be anything easy...or short lived about what's coming...



YouSir

a reply to: Grimpachi

No.

Just, no.

Our inflation is not the fault of Russia or the sanctions.

Our inflation is the result of intentional and deliberate policy decisions by the left and the Biden administration.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Our inflation is not the fault of Russia or the sanctions.

Whatever you like to hear it or not but the sanctions due have an impact on the US economy as well as much its hurting Europe now.

The sanctions haven't been hurting Russia.
The US inflation might have not had started with the sanctions but these sanctions arent helping the US ecmcony either.

originally posted by: vNex92
a reply to: DBCowboy

Our inflation is not the fault of Russia or the sanctions.

Whatever you like to hear it or not but the sanctions due have an impact on the US economy as well as much its hurting Europe now.

The sanctions haven't been hurting Russia.
The US inflation might have not had started with the sanctions but these sanctions arent helping the US ecmcony either.

Meh.

I could give a damn about Russia. Sorry, but I really don't care.

What I do care about is this crap that was happening before Russia invaded Ukraine.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Well you should care Russia is the biggest one that feeds the world besides China that exports Rice.

originally posted by: vNex92
a reply to: DBCowboy

Well you should care Russia is the biggest one that feeds the world besides China that exports Rice.

Then the US needs to stop exporting food and we should feed ourselves.

I'm so ####ing sick to see the US dependent on everyone when we have the resources to take care of ourselves.