Is the release of US oil reserves a planned cashing in of the chips?

With the US finally releasing its oil reserves you have to wonder if they’ll be charging a little more to those they supply than would’ve been the case when they finally did release this oil at some distant point in the future.

If the US reserve’s prices are indeed inflated by the war (why would they not be?) are they simply exploiting the situation, or was the situation manufactured to this end?

If manufactured, then why now?

Here’s where I go out on a limb… No evidence, or sources I’m afraid - just a hunch: What if those holding the US reserve purse strings feared that sooner rather than later there’ll be an announcement from perhaps Japan, the U.K., or China that a breakthrough’s been made in nuclear fusion and free (or free’er) energy is ready to roll out?

Wouldn’t those US oil reserves that’ve been piggy banking away for a rainy day lose much of their value almost overnight?

So, if those interests managing US reserve stocks thought that fusion science was progressing a little too well, might they look for a way to maximise profits before it’s too late?

Whether or not this wacky theory is the motivation, the Ukraine war has conveniently created an opportunity to cash in the chips of US oil stocks at what will surely be a higher return than if Putin wasn’t holding much of the world to oil ransom.

And if this is a manufactured or opportunistic bid to cash in those chips is it simply out of impatience to turn this oil into cash, or a dire need for treasury cash to fill the hole that covid left? Or on a more positive, big picture note does it perhaps signal an inevitable, or even imminent success in nuclear fusion research?

……
Of course it can be argued that as advertised the POTUS is simply being forced to release these reserves due to Putin’s actions; no mystery, no conspiracy, nothing to see here. Maybe so! My thesis is based on questions, since I know very little about oil, though life’s taught me that these kinds of manoeuvres seldom happen without someone making a profit. So is it a narrative worth considering?

a reply to: McGinty

Wouldn’t those US oil reserves that’ve been piggy banking away for a rainy day lose much of their value almost overnight?

First, they wouldn't care because it is like the military, it costs what it costs.

Next, even if stated breakthrough happened, it would not be implemented overnight, it would in fact take decades leaving more than enough time to drop the reserve down.

Now, drawing it down just before a war is ......

P

originally posted by: pheonix358
a reply to: McGinty

Wouldn’t those US oil reserves that’ve been piggy banking away for a rainy day lose much of their value almost overnight?

Now, drawing it down just before a war is ......

Another nail in America's coffin.

a reply to: McGinty

Someone is always making money from other peoples misery McGinty.

I don't see it being any different where oil is concerned considering the bargaining tool that the product has become.

a reply to: McGinty


The average cost of the reserve oil was way less than the current market rates so we are actually making a huge 'profit', but that only helps if the price goes back down before being refilled.

Risky to empty the reserves, but situations like this is why we've been paying for it all these years.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: McGinty


The average cost of the reserve oil was way less than the current market rates so we are actually making a huge 'profit', but that only helps if the price goes back down before being refilled.

Risky to empty the reserves, but situations like this is why we've been paying for it all these years.

Yeah, we keep our strategic oil reserve so we can send it out during wars we shouldn't be involved in, not for national security.

Sounds legit

a reply to: Ksihkehe


I didn't say it was a good idea, it's a big risk.

But it isn't the costly move that some make it out to be, it's likely to be very profitable.

Although we'll have to wait for the details, last time biden sold oil to china at less than half the market rate as some kind of gift or something.

a reply to: McGinty

I suspect that any alternative would still be priced at approximately the level we pay at the moment.
Even if it could be easily switched overnight and was free for the producer, the end users won't reap the benefits while the owners still want their profits.
They won't be happy to see a lower income no matter how great the alternative was.

Just my opinion.

Didn't captain poopy pants sell off our reserves to China while he was destroying our ability to to drill and transport locally?

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Ksihkehe


I didn't say it was a good idea, it's a big risk.

But it isn't the costly move that some make it out to be, it's likely to be very profitable.

Although we'll have to wait for the details, last time biden sold oil to china at less than half the market rate as some kind of gift or something.

Yeah, Biden likes giving gifts to China. You and your comrades elected him President on his long track record of profiting off foreign nations so don't act surprised.

Highly profitable gas? I'm paying 30% more than a year ago and my taxes are fixing to increase. I sure hope it's profitable for somebody, but it sure as hell isn't American citizens.

You despise Biden, you just happen to support everything he does.

Did I step in something or is that smell something else?

a reply to: McGinty

Selling the reserves makes sense if you intend to consume way less in future. I bet you anything the prices will only keep going up. This is how they plan to get us to net zero, The average person won’t be able to afford fossil fuels..

This is the administration grasping at straws ahead of the midterms. No more no less.

Even no-less of a mouthpiece than USA Today is admitting this will have minimal effect on gas prices.

So kneecap domestic production in name of the environment, then start pumping the strategic reserves in name of the economy (neither of which will help the environment or the economy)?? As much as I disagree with almost everything Obama, he's 100% correct on Biden's ability to mess things up.

Might as well sell the reserves or use them, if the world goes non fuel, it makes sense somewhat

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: McGinty


The average cost of the reserve oil was way less than the current market rates so we are actually making a huge 'profit'

This was indeed my point - it’s a good time to sell oil. Is that just opportunism, or planned? Whomever is reaping that huge profit might think the war fortuitous.

originally posted by: Tulpa
a reply to: McGinty

I suspect that any alternative would still be priced at approximately the level we pay at the moment.
Even if it could be easily switched overnight and was free for the producer, the end users won't reap the benefits while the owners still want their profits.
They won't be happy to see a lower income no matter how great the alternative was.

Just my opinion.

Indeed! But even if there’s money to be made from fusion, there’s the issue of all those oil reserves that’ll be become ever less valuable as fusion’s rolled out. In that situation you’d want to sell it for as much as possible before fusion. This war has certainly made it more profitable to get rid of those reserves. Convenient, or planned?

originally posted by: paytaplay
Might as well sell the reserves or use them, if the world goes non fuel, it makes sense somewhat

Exactly! And if you’ve decided you want, or need to sell you want to maximise the price and this war has certainly made it a seller’s market.

Thanks for all the informed replies.

The nub of my thesis is: will those that pocket the earnings from supplying the reserves to the suppliers who are currently running short fetch a higher price for it than if oil weren’t in a global squeeze.

I think some may have answered that, but my incredibly limited grasp of the oil industry means I didn’t understand.

Regarding the nuclear fusion part… I appreciate it wouldn’t be rolled out overnight and the state would no doubt find a way to make money out of it, but, but would the announcement alone of fusion success and the ability to roll it out hit the stock market prices of big oil and those making a buck out of it. Would that not then hit the price of a barrel and lower the value of those reserves?

If it was known such a breakthrough were close would it not make sense to sell as many barrels as possible as quickly as possible. Doesn’t this current global squeeze on oil raise the value?


In short, the power brokers see fusion coming over the horizon, so they form a plan: A coup in Ukraine.

The new president talks to the US and NATO; whispers of joining NATO and maybe even developing nukes.

True or not it has the desired effect on paranoid Putin. Putin invades Ukraine allowing the harshest sanctions on him.

In answer to the sanctions Putin predictably squeezes the oil supply.

This pushes up the value, meaning the US can sell those reserves at greater profit.

Sometime later the US welcomes the announcement of nuclear fusion - clean energy.

Putin and those still holding large supplies and natural resources of oil see values begin their perhaps gradual, but steady and bottomless fall.


Sorry if much of repeats my OP, but as I said I’m not sure the answers resolved the questions, to my humble understanding.

Oil reserve releases are "paper" calculated and the real oil can't actually get into the real market for months.

Just another trick 😎🚬

a reply to: McGinty

I believe that it's as it seems. That biden wants gas prices to lower so that people will vote dem in november.

But I hope your right and it's because a new better energy form is just around the corner and they know it.
Could be fusion. Could be some new break through in solar. That's what I would hope.

a reply to: xuenchen

Yep and the democrats playing demigods, they are going to help the littler man.

Well do not be fools, the bide administration created this crisis US did not have any oil crisis and this have nothing to do with the darn "war".

I guess democrats strongly believe most Americans are dumb and stupid, but hey wait for the liberal media claim how generous biden is.

Fools.