Has the NGAD "fighter" been spotted at Area 51?

For those of you out of the loop, NGAD - Next Gen Air Dominance - is the program to replace the F-22 and F-15 fighters in the US Air Force's inventory. It has been described as the '6th generation fighter' (well, air combat aircraft). There are a number of things which are known about it: a demonstrator has already flown. However, demonstrator could be anything from Have Blue to a little more than an RC plane. Probably not the latter, but, folks an be fast and loose about what a demonstrator is.

That said, something has been spotted at Area 51. The Drive (Warzone) is the first to note it in my news feeds. Here are the pix:





www.thedrive.com...

The details are clearly crappy. Estimates are coming in at 65 ft in length and a 50 ft wingspan. That's either a demonstrator for something - bit too small for a mach 1000 bird - or... it happens to be right in line in size for the aircraft talked about for NGAD. It might be a touch too small even for that. We will see.

However, the signalling of putting it out to be seen could be due to the tensions in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. When the Russians starting punching Ukraine last time, the Texas Spanloader and wichita birds came out to be seen. Tensions again? new toy rolls out.

So! Comments! Thoughts?

a reply to: anzha

Well, would you look at that.
I got the right hanger.

Nice.


Edit:
For a second I thought it was the drone for an SR-71 A-12... but looking down at Blackbird park and museum, that's not it. Not even close... I swear I've seen this before though.

Thanks again for posting.

How?

Now, for the first time, satellite imagery from Planet Labs not only shows activity

How did the base not know of passing satellites? Or is this a well known aircraft ready to see the light of day?

Edit for pics:

That almost looks like an old Swedish J35 Draken with upward cant wingtips.

Dumb question - why does it look like it’s in a glass cookie jar?

a reply to: phansett

They have a canopy frame up around it. It doesn't have the covering however.

Yeah, but why? Just enough to distort or obscure some of the craft? Just seems very odd to pull it out of a very robust and secretive hanger for 3 days and park it under a partially built small structure.

They knew the satellite was coming, misinformation or a blatant misdirection.

But my opinion and a few bucks can get you a cup of cheap coffee.

a reply to: Bigburgh

1. *IF* this a real NGAD, it was done on purpose.
2. A grand poobah of aircraft stated it looks an awful lot like a Gripen.

a reply to: Irishhaf

Well Area 51 Groom Lake is known for being "SLY" when it comes to misdirection.

Upsidedown aircrafts on poles, tarps cut out to look like exotic aircrafts.

a reply to: anzha

I have to agree with you.

originally posted by: Bigburgh

I swear I've seen this before though.

Kind of looks like EDI from the movie Stealth.

As to why it is allowed to be photographed, a stupid attempt to intimidate the Russians? Bizarre.

a reply to: anzha

looks fast

eta: saved these pics before they disappear

a reply to: 1010set

Not a stupid attempt to intimidate. Just a two minute trick they pulled to make others spend waaaaaay too much time trying to figure out what it is. It is a tactic to get others to waste their resources on false flags.

If there is anything legit about it, its because at some point in the near future a genuine aircraft will be visible and mixed in with a whole bunch of other time wasters. Though Area 51 does know when a satellite is overhead at all times. It would only be out of necessity that they let something get photographed, but even then as I said, that photo would be one among a dozen misleading nothings with wings.

Noob questions, it looks like they used a tent of sorts to cover it.

1) Why would they do this?
2) Why transparent??

Could these be just a tent and nothing under it? I see a nose shadow but just put a tent out there. Some optical light bending is seen so either the tent foil refracts the light from the plane under it, or it's printed on the tent.

More questions arise now, why would they do that.

Add: Ah I see Vroomfondel has a good explanation, I did not see his post.

Wing sweep is substantially less aggressive than a Draken. Also renders it unlikely that it's exceptionally fast.

Constant vertical curve on the wingtips is not very conducive to super-low RCS, but it does pretty much rule out control surfaces on the vertical sections (how do you pass linkages through a thin, constant curve?) You can fair the horizontal/vertical join for aerodynamics or signature but to keep what appears to be, effectively, blended Vstabs you give up actuation. So it's reasonable to guess those devices are for vortex management in a subsonic regime either for drag reduction or to increase roll authority from the flaperons in high-aoa condition, or, more likely, are supplemental stabilizers. So there is insufficient yaw stability from the basic planform in which case it's a safe bet spoilerons are out as well then. This also depreciates 3D thrust vectoring. Exhaust looks like it comes right out the back, no top-exiting exhaust with a ramp for IR masking. No apparent top mounted, masked inlets. So RCS from bottom front not a priority, or sacrificed for more high-AOA capability (no separation forward of the intake).

So best guess is a high subsonic to moderate supersonic airplane with RCS being a secondary priority to something else. Small, so limited range and payload. No exotic thrust vectoring. No obvious attempts to aggressively manage IR signature.

Something forward deployed, or easily tankable, lacking cutting-edge and/or exorbitantly expensive design features. Appears to be single engine. Possibly unmanned.

Sounds like an attritable, moderately priced loyal wingman type companion airplane, or development testbed for a particular piece of equipment.

Odds that it was left out accidentally basically zero. So either it's old and nobody gives a crap, it's new and it's been left out on purpose or because it doesn't betray any particularly special capability, or it's plywood and Krylon and there's some guys in a pre-fab office building in the middle of nowhere having a laugh while untold man-hours are tied up in ugly office blocks on the other side of the planet by analysts that could have been burning gas on something useful.

a reply to: Ornithologist

Good analysis. Im going with its something printed on the roof of the shelter.

a reply to: BASSPLYR

bet you 10$ its

the shadowing on the ground and the fact the bubble is still up tell me this is real

and maybe we wanted to show Russia sneak peak at what could be coming their way.


something is holding Russia is holding for reasons i cant really understand, they could roll over the Ukraine and deal with the finacial sanctions later.

someone has something over Russia to stay their hands and i have a feeling its us or the UK


or China told someone to hold on and they can fight toghter. I would not be shocked if Russia and china teamed up to have one of the other turn.

It is pointing in the direction of a spaceplane , the shape, the wing tips upward, no real Stealth make me thing of something related with high speed or , near space/space. You don't build a massive hangar in extrem south of the more secret base in the world for a slow no stealth plane.

originally posted by: Bigburgh
Upsidedown aircrafts on poles

That's how they test the aircraft's radar signature.