Predicting Global Population Decline

Saw this in the Sunday New York Times and my jaw dropped:

www.nytimes.com...

When you read it, you will note that the author addresses the issue with a rather alaming and apocalytic tone.

ll over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore.

Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.

A paradigm shift is necessary,” said Frank Swiaczny, a German demographer who was the chief of population trends and analysis for the United Nations until last year. “Countries need to learn to live with and adapt to decline.”

The change may take decades, but once it starts, decline (just like growth) spirals exponentially. With fewer births, fewer girls grow up to have children, and if they have smaller families than their parents did — which is happening in dozens of countries — the drop starts to look like a rock thrown off a cliff.“It becomes a cyclical mechanism,” said Stuart Gietel Basten, an expert on Asian demographics and a professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It’s demographic momentum.”

Fascinating development. The author notes that even in countries known for high birth rates the decline in births is accelerating to a point below replacement level and cites India and Mexico.

The article does cite some benefits such as lower polution levels associated with falling consumption rates. Thus those worried about global climate change may find some relief in this news.

As an amateur historian, the only historical period that I can recall studying of similar vicious drop off in population occurred between 800 ad and 1450 ad in the realm of the Byzantine Empire aall the way through the middle east and modern day Turkey. Its interesting to read about. Constantinople was built for a population of near 1 million people but by the date of the fall of the city in May 29, 1453, the city housed fewer than 100,000 people and was replete with abandonned buildings and entire districts of the city had been taken back by vegiitation.

There was of course a similar die off of enormous proportions in Europe during the period of the Black Plague, 1346~1352.

In both cases, plague and disease were the cause of the die off, with the Byzantine Empire region suffering multiple plague related die off's. The Justinian Plague kicked it all off in 541.

Coincidentally, the cause of the spread of the Plague was........globalization. Constantinople was a trade hub between East and West and supplied goods to Europe through Venice and other European port cities.

One thing to note.........if the author of this article is correct, residential real estate could be the worst investment going forward for young people.

Enjoy

I blame it on global information. Before the internet, you only knew what the msm told you. Before msm, you only knew what travelers told you as they passed your area.

Now we have everyone around the world telling anyone who will listen how bad it is where they are and how horrible it will be in the future. The msm and government agencies actually send people to other parts of the world just to tell you these things. People listen and don’t want to add more lives to the suffering.

Parts of the world are so scared of all the doom stories to the point of not reproducing, and it is spreading.

a reply to: TonyS

Nothing to do with enacted cryptoeugenic policies then?


www.abovetopsecret.com...

I just got done doing a 5 prefecture ( in America that would be like States ) of Japan on bicycle and I was shocked on the amount of abandon house I saw out in the countryside. One train that was serving only one student graduated and now the train service stopped also.

But if you look at the big cities, a large flow of young have hit the cities and it doesn't look like loss of population though.
What is true about Japan is that the death rate now out numbers the birth rate. Japan has 30 million elderly people out of 130 million people. Things are not looking very good here and the reason is most of the elderly are the ones doing the farming. That will lead to a loss of food production, but currently pre-covid, foreigners were helping out, but now its a real problem.

a reply to: TonyS

I think of the old addage of (prospective or current) parents wanting to give their kids a better life than they had.

I can think of a hundred reasons why young people can't make that promise before conception.

Im still of child baring age, and I and most of my friends are still on the fence if we'll take the leap. If I had to gamble I'd say it's going to be a 50/50 mix. Most of us are well off, so it's not purely financial.

Personally, I think something societtaly shifting is on the horizon in my lifetime. Not sure I want to make someone go through that, and selfishly, I may rather navigate it without feeling responsible for a young soul.

Thats my anecdotal input, and it's purely from a male in a first world country, not sure the thought process from other demographics.

a reply to: TonyS


I for one am not worried about it, to everything there is a season, humans had a nice run .

When you have constant bombardment of we will all be dead in 12 years if we dont XYZ...

add in economic stagnation, huge amounts of propaganda pushing you into big expensive schools for useless programs, and few post graduation job prospects.

what seem to be rising tensions once more among a variety of nations, a feeding frenzy of media on covid 19 each trying to out do the others with doom porn.

Is it any surprise, I once wanted 3-4 now wife wants a second and I am wary because I am afraid I wont be able to maintain their quality of life.

Oh and almost forgot, the intentional destruction of the family unit, its scary to try and raise a child alone.

a reply to: TonyS



Causing Global Population Decline . SEE - NWO .

I'd say the economic conditions are a factor, as well as how ridiculously #ty dating is now.

a reply to: AutomateThis1



Your Right Hand can be in " Trying Times " , Your Best Friend Son with Some Nice Mental Images going Along with it Too................)

I for one am glad to see this. It's not like there is such a decline that humans will become extinct anytime soon. Remember, the earth's population has doubled....DOUBLED..... over the last 60 years. But humans have been around for several thousand years. The transition to lower populations may be challenging and downright horrific for some. But humans as a whole will continue to survive and thrive.

a reply to: TonyS

This article doesn't begin to tell the story rationally.
It's scary as hell just having grand kids right now. It
breaks my heart worrying about what kind of world
the psychopaths have in store for todays very young.

Turns my stomach to think about it.

Between the MSM abortion push, vaccination of babies (see Thalidomide for reference) and mRNA technology with the dozen mRNA jabs they are trying to pass out like joints at a Woodstock concert who the hell knows how this will all play out?

All we can do as individuals is just say NO and walk away, grow your own food, and go camping etc, Sadly there are going to be quite a few empty houses as an eyesore but that's the way the news goes haha.

a reply to: TonyS

Sure it’s not people leaving third world and developing countries to Western societies
Sure it’s a decline in population

Birth control, abortion and modern lifestyles

Wonder what is the cause?

a reply to: AutomateThis1

Good lord I forgot that part... been married 14 years and the dating scene has certainly changed.

I am terrified for my son entering this insanity eventually... thankfully he isnt even 3 yet and hopefully a measure of sanity comes back before he is dating age.

a reply to: TonyS

How will America LOSE 227 million people by 2025? Deagel Makes Mysterious Changes To 2025 Population Forecast

allnewspipeline.com...


2014 - Anyone Ever Heard of Deagel.Com?
www.abovetopsecret.com...

So if we have babies : Overpopulation will end us .

If we don't have babies: Population declining and will end us.

Make up your minds >.> We survived with barely under 1 billion in population , we can survive with less than 7 >.>

It's worth repeating...

"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other.

Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained. physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion…We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil.

Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view.

This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time." - Albert Pike (of course)

Fits like a glove.

a reply to: TonyS

It's going to be a brave new world. . . .

I mean we are competing with our grandparents who had like 8-15 children on average. That doesn't seem appealing to most people? Hmm wonder why?