Let’s talk housing

a reply to: JAGStorm

I don't think so.
I think the family diners will not be able to bounce back compared to some of the higher end restaurants...and I am not talking the expensive eateries.
The lower your income, the less likely you will be able to afford to eat out for the foreseeable future.
The higher your income, the more likely your standard of living will remain the same.

Like the renters that are the basis of this thread.
Many renters who maybe ate out at a family diner once a week cannot make their rent.
Many first time homeowners who live pay to pay and have been out of work for part of 2020 are not eating out.
They will not be going back to the local diner. They may not be able to afford Taco Bel anymore.

This same local diner establishment who is struggling with this covid thing. Just like the small landlord.

Sold the couple rentals that were my retirement. Chicago people will double the rent to $ 0 x 3 and thats their problem.
Three year investment made 300%

Not my problem anymore. have been a landlord for 40 plus years.

To those who have sold their rental properties:

Do you think these rentals will increasingly be owned by larger companies?

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: TortoiseKweek

I have my theories. And strong opinions, my family doesn't talk about housing around me. It angers me, especially what is happening in Hamilton, I work there and I hear a lot of heart breaking stories from co workers wanting to get into the market and start a family.

Let's hear them. I am genuinely curious to hear others opinions. I have mine.

Great reset, rich will scoop in when real estate crashes.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: tanstaafl
"I wonder how the AirBnB business is these days?"

AirBnb with indoor pools are going for 900+ a night here.
I'm assuming that won't be the case when Covid is cleared (if that happens)

I can't imagine Airbnb apartments/townhouses are doing as well.

Thanks, but I was wondering more about stand alone residential houses.

originally posted by: Edumakated
originally posted by: tanstaafl
"Interesting point. I wonder how the AirBnB business is these days?"

Very well. A lot of professionals have bugged out to airbnbs in more rural areas or cities without draconian lockdowns because they can work remotely.

And... I presume AirBNB renters aren't protected by these forbearance laws?

a reply to: tanstaafl

Thanks, but I was wondering more about stand alone residential houses.

That 900 a night is a stand alone house.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I recall this story about one of those wonderful people known as "social media influencers" who "squatted" at an AirBnB and refused to pay the $14,000 she owed them smh

Influencer squats at Hamptons house after not paying $14K back rent: suit

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: tanstaafl

Thanks, but I was wondering more about stand alone residential houses.

That 900 a night is a stand alone house.

Well, when you added 'with indoor pool', I figured you meant a high-end condo/apartment complex. Very, very few houses have indoor pools.

So, I wonder what a 'normal' standalone house goes for? Guess I need to sign up with AirBNB and see. Sounds like we may be able to get a LOT more by going the AirBNB route instead of year+ long leases.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Edumakated
originally posted by: tanstaafl
"Interesting point. I wonder how the AirBnB business is these days?"

Very well. A lot of professionals have bugged out to airbnbs in more rural areas or cities without draconian lockdowns because they can work remotely.

And... I presume AirBNB renters aren't protected by these forbearance laws?

Initially when lock down first happened, AirBNB got killed along with property owners. They had to issue refunds after people couldn't travel. However, as things stayed locked down, owners with properties in desirable areas started making a killing from people wanting to work remotely. So people with houses in rural areas outside of major cities, particularly upscale rural areas or seasonal vacation/second home towns were doing extremely well. For example, all the New Yorkers fled to the Hamptons to get out of the city.... paying well above normal rental rates for houses. Same with a lot of the ski towns out west.

originally posted by: Edumakated
For example, all the New Yorkers fled to the Hamptons to get out of the city.... paying well above normal rental rates for houses. Same with a lot of the ski towns out west.

Well, Cumming GA isn't the Hamptons, but I think I'll look into it...

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: Edumakated

Those who remained employed have been able to refinance to lower rates which in itself is kind of a stimulus. People buying can afford more expensive properties. Money is practically free right now...

Yes, but if the entire market crashes that expensive property might only be worth 1/2 what they paid..
Do you not believe that will happen?

Anything is possible. Here in Chicago, the suburbs have been languishing for past 15 years or so because everyone wanted to live in the city. However, once the lock down started, everyone wanted to GTFO out of the city and the suburbs are booming. It remains to be seen if the trend will continue.

2008 crash was unusual and driven by speculation and fraud more than anything. It was then exacerbated because lending dried up screwing a lot of homeowners trapping them underwater in loans they normally would have been able to get out of... Most of the systematic issues from then have been corrected.

originally posted by: StrangeQuark96
Technology and services have improved so much by this point that any young people who are willing to save a lot of money on rent can do so.

Buying and camping out in a van/estate is a small investment that could save more than $10,000~ a year.
Showering, washing clothes, washing pans - a 15L water container with tap, will provide all the water you need. need hot water? boil some water on the fire, problem solved.
Washing yourself could be be hard, especially in the winter months but people were washing themselves without showers 100 years ago, if you really need a shower go and find a leisure centre with showers available.
take all your dirty laundry to the local laundrette.

As for entertainment - Get a chrome book, they can be charged over USB-C and all you will need is a few power banks to be re-charged while at work or via running the engine.

Governments have more control over their population when the cost of living goes up, It's a trap remember that.
If you have children, I am sorry and I do not recommend any of this. Children need a proper home and access to school.

RV sales are booming... people don't want to fly and many are downsizing and trying to live simpler lives too.

My wife literally just sent me an article about Airstream reconfiguring a model's floorplan around working remotely.

If I didn't have kids, I'd be selling all my sh*t right now and be on the road in an RV moving around country at will.

originally posted by: ketsuko
People have also been dumb.

The ones who weren't using their unemployment to pay their rent were the same ones who turned down going back to work because unemployment + $600 was better money even though it was temporary. They took advantage of the rent moratorium even knowing they'd be on the hook to pay it back eventually.

For people like that, tomorrow never comes until it does and then it's always someone else's fault that they don't have the money.

A lot of people have little savings and not able to weather an interruption in income. I think I read something like 50% of households couldn't handle a $500 unexpected bill. Many of these people are always in some kind of financial problem. Even when they get a windfall of money, they screw it up with dumb purchases...

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: TortoiseKweek

They blame it on low interest rates. But when you break it down, buying a home isn't really about the down payment, it's about your net income. Either everyone is either making 120k+ a year solo or combined, or, the banks are giving out loans to people who should not have them, OR in most cases I have seen parents dive in to co-sign or plant a massive down payment to ensure their kids or what ever get the home.

And then, there's the 'conspiracy' or 'foreign investors' (Chinese) coming in and buying up property. Either way, it's not adding up. Too many loose ends to justify these insane house prices here.

Low rates are driving inflation of housing, particularly in areas that people want to live. In urban areas, everyone is making $120k/yr..... housing prices reflect this fact. Heck, in Chicago, $120k/yr is a cop and a teacher. They'd be buying a $300k house easily. Starter homes for professional couples in most major cities run $300-$500k. Upwards of $1 million places like NYC or San Fran or LA. Young couple who might be a coder and a lawyer. Household income of $200-$300k/yr.

a reply to: Edumakated

$30,000 gets a very nice camper. Just need a truck to pull it.

originally posted by: Edumakated

originally posted by: StrangeQuark96
Technology and services have improved so much by this point that any young people who are willing to save a lot of money on rent can do so.

Buying and camping out in a van/estate is a small investment that could save more than $10,000~ a year.
Showering, washing clothes, washing pans - a 15L water container with tap, will provide all the water you need. need hot water? boil some water on the fire, problem solved.
Washing yourself could be be hard, especially in the winter months but people were washing themselves without showers 100 years ago, if you really need a shower go and find a leisure centre with showers available.
take all your dirty laundry to the local laundrette.

As for entertainment - Get a chrome book, they can be charged over USB-C and all you will need is a few power banks to be re-charged while at work or via running the engine.

Governments have more control over their population when the cost of living goes up, It's a trap remember that.
If you have children, I am sorry and I do not recommend any of this. Children need a proper home and access to school.

RV sales are booming... people don't want to fly and many are downsizing and trying to live simpler lives too.

My wife literally just sent me an article about Airstream reconfiguring a model's floorplan around working remotely.

If I didn't have kids, I'd be selling all my sh*t right now and be on the road in an RV moving around country at will.

I did that for a couple years, said screw it...
I bought a real nice fifth wheel trailer with slide outs, it was fun for a bit but then got old fast. Thin walls, freezing in the winter, short showers small fridge/freezerand a plastic crapper. Plus RV parks are not my cup o’ tea. After a while I missed having a real house and a place called home.

a reply to: JAGStorm

My main theory revolves around the 'boomer' generation, and real estate being a fixed market. Meaning, there's a plan in order to obtain as much wealth from the baby boomer generation and or (both viable) to maintain such wealth and safe hold it for their retirement, this whole great reset just seems like it's building off the idea that anyone directly affiliated with the post WW2 rebuilding of the world will be nothing but a memory.

To digress tho, I feel the real estate world is in almost cahoots in a way with government to pad the markets, create enormous amounts of strain on the markets as a whole, and then let the 'free markets' create it's own hype, aka real estate company's, firms, agents, etc. play off their greed to push the markets beyond what they are worth. This plays off the heart strings of the boomers watching their children struggle to get into the market and they will fork over what ever to be competitive.
For those fortunate enough to not need mommy and daddy bank, they are paying into a debt for life, for over inflated market value.
It's all connected, a big game to sell off the 'surplus' of real estate in urban centers to put everything under a mortgage. I can bet that in ten years, no home will be owned or purchased with cash, and if they are, it's by the filthy rich or well off. It will reveal it as not a free market, but a class problem.

The mass amounts of new condos, and the lack of new rental units probably whats really driving rental prices up. I ve been told a few stories, and some of the prices just to live in a condo in T.O is insane. Townhomes are easily over half a million, and thwir maintenence fees are close to paying a second mortgage.

There are semi or fullies in what would consider slum like, an be worth half a mill too. Rent should be at least half of what a mortgage should be.


What sort of Jewish God would allow this?

originally posted by: Edumakated
There are two markets.... rental market and housing market.

Rental market is in shambles because landlords cannot evict for non-payment right now. This is hiding the true cost of the pandemic.
....

Just today I was discussing with my contractor who invests in real estate about doing a vrbo with one of my properties versus long term rental . The reason being due to the high number of defaults on renters and the inability to evict them when they do. Doing a vrbo appears to be less of a risk with higher return depending on location.

I think you might see the vrbo trend expanding even more than it has, due to the risk of default and inability to evict. If so its going to really fk the rental market for long term renters in certain areas.