Let’s talk housing

I recently read that apx 20 million renters are behind on rent, a portion of that very severely late.
There are apx 43 million renters in the US. So roughly half of all renters are somewhat behind.

Both the Trump administration and the new Biden administration has been trying to keep the economy afloat.
How long will that last? A 1200 here, a 600 there will not save most people that are that far behind.

The other question is what good is unemployment if it is not going toward rent. Isn’t that the first thing you should be paying?

All I envision is a giant avalanche ready to crash. Somehow where I live housing prices are still sky high. People are still building and the cost to build is pretty much insane. I always thought we were going to have an economic crash, but somehow it seemed like housing was going to be spared, but now I think it won’t.

So what will happen? Here are some of my guesses. Eventually some of those renters are going to be kicked out. That will open up a lot of rentals, or owners will decide to sell. Or will the government use this to usher in UBI? Even if they do, it appears that this generation doesn’t think paying for housing is a priority and think it should be “free”.... Will this cause housing prices to crash like in 08? Somehow I think it will be different, but I’m not quite sure how... Will those with money scoop up anything available before we even know what is happening?

I know different areas of the US have different housing markets, but I think we are all going to feel this one coming. So please, do share what you think is going to happen, or what is already happening in your area.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I've sold two of my rentals this year.
Renters have become much more trouble than they are worth.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Been looking at homes in Florida...and they sell almost as soon as the listings go up...often with multiple bidders and selling above asking.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: JAGStorm

I've sold two of my rentals this year.
Renters have become much more trouble than they are worth.

People that I know that owned rentals have all sold last year.

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: JAGStorm

Been looking at homes in Florida...and they sell almost as soon as the listings go up...often with multiple bidders and selling above asking.

I know a lot of Florida natives, well at least what we call people that have lived there for two or more generations. They are tired of everyone migrating down there. It seems like half of Illinois, and half of New York moved to Florida in the last 12 months!

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: JAGStorm

Been looking at homes in Florida...and they sell almost as soon as the listings go up...often with multiple bidders and selling above asking.

I know a lot of Florida natives, well at least what we call people that have lived there for two or more generations. They are tired of everyone migrating down there. It seems like half of Illinois, and half of New York moved to Florida in the last 12 months!

It's a big state...but those waterfront homes go fast.

Here in our small town, houses are selling for stupid high prices. Stupid fast.
The house next door to us just went up for sale officially, yesterday.
There is already a sale pending today.
For over 50,000 more than what it sold for in 2018.

Sucks, cause my taxes are going to go up. Again.

How is this sustainable?

a reply to: JAGStorm

Housing markets are cyclical. We’ve been on a heavy upward trend since 2011.

Prices have to correct down. Otherwise, not many would be able to afford them.

I spent 10 year in real estate. Then subsequently, 5 years in foreclosures. Due to the 08’ crash.

It’s the nature of the beast unfortunately.

The market will adjust. Just how bad the crash is and what side effects it has is the only question. So, some big property owners will lose net worth and their taxes will go down to absorb the loss. The magic number will hurt their pride but the reality is they will survive unless they're idiots who got themselves upside down from leveraging too much.

Renters throw their money away to be free from responsibility and they will recover because rents are going to go down from all the availability.

I'm just happy my dad sold most of his rentals a few years ago so his retirement will remain peaceful and I don't have to help him clean up any messes.

So, far everything is up thus I don't see a problem - we can take a few years of down. Properties that were 29k in 1970 are 800k today - I think we can take it.

I am selling mine as well while the market is hot, while also looking at some of the things biden admin is considering to continue protecting renters to the detriment of home owners, there is no good reason to continue renting it.-

There are two markets.... rental market and housing market.

Rental market is in shambles because landlords cannot evict for non-payment right now. This is hiding the true cost of the pandemic. The problem is eventually many of the smaller landlords will also be in financial trouble as they may not be able to pay their own bills due to tenants not paying. I am talking the small individual landlord that might own one or a handful of units, not the big commercial enterprises.

The housing market is booming, particularly suburbs as urbanites flee to from cities. Prices are high because financing/mortgages are cheap. The professional class that is still gainfully employed can borrow at historically low rates which allows them to afford more expensive properties but also drives up prices. The urban housing market is also teetering though in many cities as many people want out of city living so even though the market is booming, it depends on where....

Who is buying them all?

Big investment companies I would imagine, who else has the cash and the balls to be investing small scale right now?

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: JAGStorm

I've sold two of my rentals this year.
Renters have become much more trouble than they are worth.

People that I know that owned rentals have all sold last year.

a reply to: Edumakated

If my wife hadnt insisted we get section 8 certified I would be bankrupt right now, we have 1 rental house because I had to move for work.

Real estate agent believes we can get nearly twice what I owe, much as I hate putting the tenant in a tight spot I have to do right by my family first.

Word out there is the housing market will never be this high again. In the next 2-3 years prices will plummet. COVID, people with no income, Boomers dying off. Supply and demand.

Sounds very....2008. You know that NOTHING was fixed right? Just renamed.

a reply to: jjkenobi

yea trying to talk my wife out of the over priced home she has her heart set on, especially since work may be moving me again soon.

Thank god my real estate agent recommended a great inspector, ill be stunned if the owners agree to the amendment.

I've been in mortgage financing for almost 20 years. The best it's ever been. Those who remained employed have been able to refinance to lower rates which in itself is kind of a stimulus. People buying can afford more expensive properties. Money is practically free right now... I am talking rates in mid 2s for most borrowers. This is why Wall Street is booming because rates are so low, savers have no where to put their money to earn any kind of real interest so investing is the only real option.

On the other hand, there are many people who are hurting right now as well. The faster we get the economy completely open, the less pain that will be had all around. The restaurant industry is completely screwed.

We cannot overstate how messed up these lockdowns were to the economy. Completely unnecessary and with no basis in fact or science either.

a reply to: chiefsmom

How is this sustainable?

That is where I'm at.
Where I live people make decent money. The vast majority do not make enough for the price of houses here.
We used to look at California and Washington state where people would spend 50-70%+ of their income on housing and think that's crazy. Now that seems to be happening in other places.

a reply to: Edumakated

The restaurant industry is completely screwed.

Yes, but I think there will be a lot of opportunity when we open back up fully.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I live in BFE south georgia we have a small private college and a small military base and thats it, 50 year old homes are going for 160k, and new homes for north of 250k.

Its insane, heck rental prices are absurd here as well because everything is set to the militaries housing allowance.