Trump Vs Biden Predictions

a reply to: Zarniwoop

Dude, look in the mirror... your OP is a troll.

How am I trolling, seriously please explain to me exactly how my OP is a troll.

I honestly want an explanation for this

I am not trying to inflame or bait anyone, I am being perfectly respectable to my fellow members (I mean you call me out for trolling yet give Shooterboy a pass?), am not trying to be offensive or provocative. My OP is well researched, I said right at the top of my OP that "I have often said I like to use ATS as a way to consolidate my own learning and this is really what this thread it".

So yeah how the hell am I trolling

If I am trolling with this OP you might as well just ban me right now.

Am being deadly serious am calling you out on this right now, I know as a mod participating you cannot act so please, if I am trolling, post it in the mod forum, have my account banned.

Otherwise, retract that statement, and I will happily remove this post

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

That would be off topic.

Carry on...

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: namehere
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

probably just barely a trump victory most likely.

Interesting perspective.

I kinda hope that whoever win Florida wins big because if that state goes down to recounts we could have another Gore saga.

Dem's are in really big trouble in FL at the moment.

Follow these accounts for updates - twitter.com... & twitter.com...

R’s have also registered 190K more voters than D’s in Florida since 2016.

The polls were wrong in 2016, 2018 (Gillum & Nelson heavily favored).

Prediction: Trump wins FL by at least 250k votes.

originally posted by: Zarniwoop
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

That would be off topic.

Carry on...

Ohhh so you don't have an answer.

Your right it would be off topic wouldn't it.

Just like you calling my OP a troll is off topic.

pathetic!

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Ok so polling data, expert opinion, the markets and bookies are not the media.

They all listen to the media or have a vested interest in what they think the people that listen to the media do.

If you want an honest assessment, you would have to visit regular people in every state of the United States. Not the officials, not the speculators, not the experts, their opinion is what they think they will profit from. The regular people are not listeded to by these "experts."

We will all find out next week how this comes out.

Someone gave us all that old Chinese curse big time, "May you live in exciting times."

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Breakthestreak
Bigger victory than 2016

That’s more-than evident

Anyone who’s claiming they don’t believe Trump will win - is lying

Well am not lying am giving my opinion based on the information I have available to me.

I am curious as to why you believe that Trump will have a bigger win than 2016?

The last four years
Of leftist behaviour and democrat/media behaviour

Trump has this won - HANDS DOWN

It was more than obvious he was going to win in 2016

It was obvious hilary was gonna lose, the polls are meaningless the polls are fake, always have been

It’s more than obvious biden has ZERO chance

I dont have one, wish I did but I could honestly see it going either way.

Honestly I dont think either is good for the long term health of the nation, but thats a side note.

This election like last time is picking chicken S#$% or that little white spec on top of Chicken S#$%, either way its still poop.

That said I lean towards another unexpected trump surge eeking out a victory, and finally a nail in the coffin of the pollsters.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Actually this is pointless Trump supporters will say Trump , Trump haters will say Biden , There is no Biden support . We will know soon and most people will go on with their life either way . Just a side note , they said Reagan had no chance in his reelection and he won in a landslide .

a reply to: beyondknowledge

Yeah dude I can appreciate you taking the view from the guy on the street so am not saying your wrong in your view that Trump will win, I even say in my OP I wouldn't count him out am just more struggling with you just dismissing the information presented in My OP right away.

But thats fair enough, if its completely at odd with what your on the ground experience is then that fair enough, but its based purely on your own subjective experience where as ami can looking at slightly more objective data points and expert opinions. They though are not always right and its entirely possible that as you say they could be off but given I don't have that 5th indicator if you like to support the formation of my prediction I can only go with the best information I can find.

Thanks for taking the time to reply.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
Cancel culture throws off the experts, bookies, and polls because you can’t do accurate predictions when people lie about who they’re voting for.

To be clear though that is your opinion, its not a fact.

We will see soon.

Well you asked if all those people that got it wrong in 2016 are getting it wrong again and I pointed out why they’re wrong again. The market has Trump at a 86% chance of winning and is the only measure not used last time. I’m just trying to use the data you provided, but it’s provided by a bunch of people that got it wrong. If you lived in the US, you would understand how big of an effect cancel culture had on people’s political stance, tied in with the blatantly bias “experts” making predictions.

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
Cancel culture throws off the experts, bookies, and polls because you can’t do accurate predictions when people lie about who they’re voting for.

To be clear though that is your opinion, its not a fact.

We will see soon.

Well you asked if all those people that got it wrong in 2016 are getting it wrong again and I pointed out why they’re wrong again. The market has Trump at a 86% chance of winning and is the only measure not used last time. I’m just trying to use the data you provided, but it’s provided by a bunch of people that got it wrong. If you lived in the US, you would understand how big of an effect cancel culture had on people’s political stance, tied in with the blatantly bias “experts” making predictions.

errr..

yeah okay man,

fair points.

All I would say though is that the economic measure would have been used back in 2016.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Arnie123

I am glad you posted on this thread because I am curious to get your prediction and rationale behind it.

My prediction? A Trump victory of course.

However, it won’t be a landslide in my opinion.

The entire democrat machine is engaged, but so is the GOP and conservatives. Yet, more so beyond that, Core Base Trump support, the actual real true Trump supporter, that number in the millions across the US.

Like another User said, most election fraud happens at the local level, with the increased hyper partisanship, that fraud will naturally be amplified as well. This is most likely what Trump alludes to. At the local level, it’s easier to game the system. The problem with that though is it can only go so far and you only reap that one county, or district. That’s the extent and purpose of the Electorate.

I’m not fazed at all about any potential voter fraud involving mail in, there is no “FIX”. Literally, everything is amplified by several factors due to the enormity of the election.

My prediction is based upon a multilayer analysis that spans a number of sources. Everything from National polling, third party polling, Online/snap polls in realtime. I look at where the campaigns are spending money, where ADS are being pulled and pushed. You have to consider factors that media will potentially be biased as they have proven multiple times. Their perspective seeks to taint the real time narrative that should play out naturally. However, a number of smaller independent media has gained traction and stream as a result of resonating with their audience with their basic journalistic approach. That is not immune to being tainted at the partisan level, they are Pro Trump after all.

Social media pulse is another huge factor. Conservative media apparently dominates the Social landscape, young Black conservatives and other ideologies are finding voices and gaining subscribers at a fast pace. A lot of these Social media influencers are pro trump and command large subs in the millions.

Another factor is the silent majority, which already existed. It was them that handed Trump the victory in 2016. That enthusiasm has now grown at breakneck speed.
In fact, since we’re on Enthusiasm, it is the one solid metric that Trump has and proudly boasts. Rallies, Boat parades, Car Parades, Street Corner Supporters, it’s all for Trump. Can anyone point out a Biden event of that magnitude? Harris during her fight with Biden wasn’t polling well at all among the field, at 2%. How can that translate to victory? It doesn’t. If anything, they’re get the Anti Trump vote, some Obama and most Beto voters will be voting for Biden. Yet, no enthusiasm exist for Biden/Harris. With Trump, supporters are willing to fight for him. If people are willing to come out just for a show of support, those very same people can be relied upon to go vote in person at the polls.
Voting in person, that resonated with Trump supporters so much so that they pushed that messaged and it is being ANSWERED and DONE. I am an example as me and my wife voted in person at an early vote polling station.

It was really neat, me and her waited in line during the early morning hours. While looking around, I noticed an individual walking up, presumably to get in line as well, but as he approached, he veered off to where all the political signs were all bunched up. A few Trump signs had been pulled and discarded. He picked them up and placed them right back up and in front of the other signs. As he walked back to get in line, I gave him a low key thumbs up. He saw it and smiled. We exchanged pleasantries, no politics involved and carried on with our business.

a reply to: Arnie123

Hey thanks for the response you make some interesting points although I do disagree with you that Trump will win (I think he has a chance but sleepy Joe will win).

I like what you had to say about social media I hadn't considered that.

I see your in Texas, looks like another interesting state to watch on election night

Time will tell I suppose how this will play out.

Part of me kinda wants Biden to win just so we can all get back on board with all bashing on the same politician lol.

I expect that Trump will win by roughly the same margin of EVs as last time. There are a number of reasons why I think that will be the case...large enthusiasm gap in Trump's favor, GOP tendency to outperform polling in recent elections, relatively close House/Senate race, GOP winning the battle of new voter registration this year... but the main one is the pandemic.

You might think that Covid would help the Dems. It doesn't. The problem is, you've got to get people to the polls, and Dems are far more concerned about the pandemic than Republicans are. In particular, its going to hurt their ability to turn out left-leaning moderates who might normally vote Dem, but decide its not worth the risk of going to the polling station. Likewise, its going to hurt their ability to turn out older black voters, something that's already showing up in the data from early in-person voting in Florida this weekend. Its even hurting their usual on-campus recruiting at colleges (again, the GOP surge in new voter registrations is indicative of this).

If those voters don't show up in the numbers the pollsters expect...and I think they won't...Trump is likely to win.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin


President Trump gets Reelected with a One Vote Lead at then End . MY VOTE .

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin


President Trump gets Reelected with a One Vote Lead at then End . MY VOTE .

Well I did say I think it might be close but thats not quite what I had in mind....

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think it depends on where you look in social media. The Republicans against Trump who have actively formed groups have huge followings, with ads and billboards as well.

The Dems may not turn out at a rally but they have been super active in stressing the importance of voting, of registering those that have never voted before. People have plans to vote, if they work etc,
when to go. How early or leave work etc. That's where they have been focusing enthusiasm. You've seen very large turn outs in the Dem areas of Texas and Georgia. Over 100,000 a day, they have well surpassed early voting from 2016.

His begging "suburban housewives" to vote for him and trying to scare them is not going over to well also. As a suburban working mother I do hear other women discussing the matter.

It can go either way, but when you have a state like MI that went to Trump by like 30,000 votes and people really disliked Hillary, you never know.

Trump will win in a landslide or they will.make Biden look like he cheated and won, just to keep antagonizing more of the obvious civil unrest bs.
Could go either way

Polling data
The markets and the bookies

Are wrong

Like they were in 2016

It was obvious then that hilary was gonna lose

EVERYONE on ATS knew it was gonna be a Trump win

I made money off his win because I made bets against hilary at the bookies

Trump is winning this time

That’s obvious

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

In the end I think more people are scared about a 2016 replay. Those who did prefer Hillary above Donald but didn't vote because they didn't like her. They were thinking she would win anyway. They regret doing so and will vote more frequently. This election the Dems have Joe Biden. And even if Joe Biden was a druling old fool they would vote for him.

I think Pennsylvania will go to Biden. Florida might as well, thinking about the older Republicans who do experience covid as a threat.

I am no American, so no voting for me - though I am about to claim voting rights on being affected by US existence and policies.

Look, I am raised in a system based on Trias Politica. Somethin 's missing in your Trias Politica America: two party system? ouch, Political appointments of judges? No kidding! Gerrymandering? WIF! In my country we have got one voting station per 1500 voters. And there's no fuss about the voting. It has been dealt with, that's it. We vote.