Poll Numbers Leading Up to the Huge November 3rd 2020 Election.

originally posted by: RickinVa
I have to make a 2 hour drive through rural Kentucky this afternoon.

I will be counting the Biden/Trump signs.

I did this in 2016 when I had to drive through rural West Virginia....Trump signs out numbered Hillary signs by about 20 to 1....and the polls were saying that Hillary couldn't lose.


I will post my results later.

Well, that was interesting in approx 100 miles through various small communities.

There was 1 Biden sign and 0 Trump signs that that either, I , or my passenger saw......the total lack of signs wasn't expected. In 2016, there were lots of signs.

Since most of the big National polls are (for some reason) weighted with more Democrat than Republican responders...

Proof?

This is something the pollsters didn't do in 2016, which is part of the reason why almost all of them underestimated candidate Trump's odds of winning, which caused them to predict that Hillary Clinton would win handily.

No, Clinton won the popular vote by margins that were close to what the national polls predicted. Reporters (not pollsters) over-estimated Clinton's support in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Those were states where candidate Trump won by less than the margin of error for most of the polls conducted in those states.

Trump won Michigan by less than 12,000 votes out of over 4.5 million cast. That's less than 0.5%. No poll would dare claim a margin of error that low.

Pennsylvania was won by a similar margin; 68,000 votes out of nearly 6 million cast, less than 0.4%.

If you want to know how close the election really is then look at the polls taken state by state, then look at how close the poll is and, finally, look at the margin of error.

a reply to: links234
Thank-you for the detailed analysis. I'm not here to discuss. Just to post interesting poll and vote related information.

Here's one I came across today...showing how many people have left the Democrat party in Pennsylvania. Along with a significant gain in Republican and Independent registered voters in Pennsylvania.

Source: qagg.news...

a reply to: carewemust

Both Democrats and Republicans have gained in Pennsylvania. Democrats have gained about 30,000 voters while Republicans have gained about 165,000. It's a significant difference but Democrats are still a majority in that state with around 800,000 registered voters.

So this notion that people are fleeing one party for the other doesn't really hold up given that both parties have seen a net gain to their registered voter numbers. Pennsylvania seems to be the outlier though with registered voter gains that large.

a reply to: links234

It seems that both sides are succeeding with their voter registration drives in Pennsylvania. I suppose the increase in voters registered as "Independents" stems from people reaching voting age and registering that way, and Dem/Repubs becoming Independents.

The continued large turnouts for President Trump's appearances, as shown in this video clip from Nevada

twitter.com...

Speaks volumes. We saw this in 2016, even though the polls had candidate Trump underwater the whole time.

Flashback, from this week in 2016.

Trump gaining on Clinton: www.cnbc.com...

Sounds like what's happening right now, with Trump gaining on Biden.

But the way the articles are worded is less "Trump friendly".

Example from 9.13.2020: www.cnn.com...

9.15.2020

Polling organizations know what they're doing. They are intentionally taking us for FOOLS.

ABC-IPSOS’S NEW POLL – WHICH OSTENSIBLY SHOWS PRESIDENT TRUMP IN TROUBLE – SURVEYED JUST 533 PEOPLE, WITHOUT A PREFERENCE FOR LIKELY OR REGISTERED VOTERS, AND WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEMOCRATIC PARTY SKEW.

The poll – cited across the news media on Sunday – purported to show the public at odds with the President over the coronavirus pandemic as well as the widely debunked story about his supposedly derogatory comments about the military.

But the poll is almost less scientific than a Twitter survey, given who was polled, and in what percentages and ratios.

STACKING THE DECK.

In total, the poll quizzed 31 percent Democrats, and just 25 percent Republicans. The pollsters also surveyed 38 percent self-identified independents.

In a telling detail, pollster Ipsos actually refused to reveal these party breakdown numbers on their website and in their PDF of the poll.

Instead, they opaquely state: “Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.”

Recent ABC/Washington Post polls also stacked the decks in favor of Biden supporters, with the July polling quizzing 522 Biden supporters versus 399 Trump supporters. That amounts to a 27 percent inbuilt bias for Biden supporters.

ABC News itself was more up front about the numbers, revealing the stark difference between Democrats and Republicans surveyed.

‘GENERAL POPULATION POLLED’

The poll also failed to approach registered, or likely voters: a key factor when attempting to rely on polling as a means by which to inform an election.

Continued at: thenationalpulse.com... s/

NONE of the pollsters apologized after blowing it in November 2016, because from their perspective they didn't get anything wrong, except their attempt to deceive. That attempt FAILED.

But as we know, "Insanity" is executing the same failed exercise over and over...and expecting different results. The polling organizations in 2020 epitomize "Insanity".

originally posted by: links234
a reply to: carewemust

Both Democrats and Republicans have gained in Pennsylvania. Democrats have gained about 30,000 voters while Republicans have gained about 165,000. It's a significant difference but Democrats are still a majority in that state with around 800,000 registered voters.

So this notion that people are fleeing one party for the other doesn't really hold up given that both parties have seen a net gain to their registered voter numbers. Pennsylvania seems to be the outlier though with registered voter gains that large.

I am a registered democrat.

I am a registered democrat for a reason, and it has *nothing* to do with party affiliation.

Many people are both stupid & predictable - which is what the major parties are counting on.

I am neither.

And that makes me and those like me very dangerous.

President Trump has closed the Gap and is now even in the key state of Florida.

apnews.com...

September 22, 2020

Rasmussen now has President Trump with a small lead over Joe Biden, nationwide.

Source: www.rasmussenreports.com...

Still amazed by how the polls listed at: www.realclearpolitics.com... are able to bury their percentage of Dem/Repub/Ind respondents. I click on each link and start digging, but cannot find that critical polling component.

October 5, 2020

This morning's ABC poll has Joe Biden up by 14 points.

On October 10, 2016 The same poll had Hillary Clinton over President Trump by 14 points.

Source: twitter.com...

The idiots in charge of these polls are frequently pulling up their fake 2016 polls and changing one name. In this case, changing Clinton to Biden.

originally posted by: carewemust
October 5, 2020

This morning's ABC poll has Joe Biden up by 14 points.

On October 10, 2016 The same poll had Hillary Clinton over President Trump by 14 points.

Source: twitter.com...

The idiots in charge of these polls are frequently pulling up their fake 2016 polls and changing one name. In this case, changing Clinton to Biden.

The political "sampling" break-down with this poll was tilted ridiculously heavy in Joe Biden's favor.

Explanation: www.breitbart.com...

But as we know, most people just react to the percentage lead a candidate supposedly has. This year however, the pollsters are flushing their own credibility down the toilet, by giving Joe Biden such a large lead, when Joe Biden excites almost noone.

One month out and I think Biden's going to get more than 300 electoral votes. The national polling average doesn't really matter, 2016 and 2000 proved that. What matters is who's leading what states and right now Biden is leading all the right states he needs to lead.

originally posted by: links234
One month out and I think Biden's going to get more than 300 electoral votes. The national polling average doesn't really matter, 2016 and 2000 proved that. What matters is who's leading what states and right now Biden is leading all the right states he needs to lead.

What states do you see Biden winning that HRC lost??

Here is an indicator that no one is picking up on. Mason jars.

Try to find jars and lids in numbers enough to can veggies to take you through the winter, spring and early summer. You can’t. Because when Covid hit people decided to plant gardens in self-reliance rather than depending on the government that, as the stimulus checks have shown, is too busy infighting to look after the people.

Growing food versus hoping for food stamps...that kinda says people are leaning pretty conservative for self preservation. Those are not votes for Biden and socialism.

I am not voting for a man. I am voting for the principles for which this country has stood since its founding. I am voting for Constitutional government. I am voting for a strong and viable military. I am voting for a vibrant economy. I am voting for the right to keep and bear arms. I am voting for the freedom to worship. I am voting for a national recognition of the founding of our nation on Biblical principles. I am voting for the ability for anyone to rise above their circumstances and become successful. I am voting for my children and grandchildren to be able to choose their own path in life, including how and where their children are educated. I am voting for our borders to be open to everyone who enters under our law and closed to everyone who would circumvent or ignore the law. I am voting for the Electoral College to remain in place, so that a few heavily populated liberal centers do not control the elections. I am voting for a Supreme Court that interprets the Constitution rather than rewrites it. I am voting to teach history, with all its warts, not erase it or revise it. I am voting for the sanctity of life from conception to birth and after. Let’s all Make America Great Again.

a reply to: BrennanHuff22

Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and probably Florida or Arizona if not both.

That's right now though, things can change.

ATSALEX I respect what you replied .
I do Hope You get all of it Heck I hope we all Do .
It is a shame both sides have the same exact coals Power and money how the hack do you think Trump got his billions ?
The VERY same reason THE BILLIONAIRS wealth increased over 25 % during the Biggest lock down EVER .

Anyway maybe some day The ideas of what THE US was meant to be will be achieved .
If it does happen It wont be JUST ONE man who will do it it will BE ALL MEN AND WOMEN toghter who will .

originally posted by: links234
a reply to: BrennanHuff22

Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and probably Florida or Arizona if not both.

That's right now though, things can change.

MN went for Clinton in 2016. Adding MI and PA would get Biden to 268 (232+16+20), would only need FL or AZ to win. winning both would put him at 307 if my math is right.

We will find out soon enough.

Used the below for my number, also pretty cool site giving you the EC college maps side by side so you can compare the elections. 1968-80 was a crazy voting time in the south.

www.270towin.com...