Ok go ahead and say the quarantine worked .

a reply to: RadioRobert

You would have to take into account when this was. Remember that Italy registered their first cases around mid February, almost 2 months ago.

Another thing is that a lot of people will become infected and fight it off without any symptoms or with only mild symptoms. That doesn't really alter the number of deaths.

One thing that can be extrapolated from those numbers is that it is 66%, which supports the R0 of 2.5.

a reply to: daskakik

China has pushed patient zero back to November already. We didn't even know a new virus with human-to-human transmission existed until mid-January. We have zero idea how widespread this is because they haven't gotten off their asses to test. We could have been assigning deaths to flu for months.

a reply to: RadioRobert
Yet the CDC preliminary hospitalizations estimates for 2019-2020 seem to match those for 2016-2017 and 2018-2019 and that was calculated up to April 4.

Testing for CV-19 was already a thing in Italy by mid february.

So, when did these anti-body tests take place?

a reply to: daskakik

You just got done telling me their flu numbers are all bullsnip? lol

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: RadioRobert
Yet the CDC preliminary hospitalizations estimates for 2019-2020 seem to match those for 2016-2017 and 2018-2019 and that was calculated up to April 4.

Testing for CV-19 was already a thing in Italy by mid february.

So, when did these anti-body tests take place?

www.reddit.com...

That is all I can find on the Italian Volunteers.

Nvm here is another page it needs to be translated though www.cougarboard.com...

a reply to: RadioRobert

You have any other numbers we can work with?

My thoughts are, if they fudge them the same way then at least they can be used to compare with each other.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

That second link shows the article was published April 2nd.

Doesn't really do anything for the theory that CV was floating around long before the first cases.

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: RadioRobert

You have any other numbers we can work with?

My thoughts are, if they fudge them the same way then at least they can be used to compare with each other.

Yes comparing a lie to a lie is the sure way to the truth or there abouts.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

You have some truths you can use to shed a light on things?

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

That second link shows the article was published April 2nd.

Doesn't really do anything for the theory that CV was floating around long before the first cases.

How do you figure that ?

40 people test positive for Covid antibodies who have not been sick with the virus during the known pandemic dates .
I'd say it does quite a bit to support the theory,. unless your suggesting they were all asymptomatic carriers ?

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Because they tested positive a month and a half after the virus was shown to be in their country. They could have been infected and been asymptomatic or shrugged it off because the symptoms were mild.

It does not prove that they were infected late last year or before CV was detected. Not saying they couldn't have but a positive test on that date isn't conclusive.

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Because they tested positive a month and a half after the virus was shown to be in their country. They could have been infected and been asymptomatic or shrugged it off because the symptoms were mild.

It does not prove that they were infected late last year or before CV was detected. Not saying they couldn't have but a positive test on that date isn't conclusive.

We must be talking about a different Virus than Covid-19 right ? Asymptomatic or so mild they shrugged it off interesting that does not sound like a virus that would be declared a pandemic by the WHO and have the whole world in a fire storm of Fear.

But it so happens that we are talking about Covid-19 , and the odds that 40 people who just so happen to give blood and had Covid anti-bodies were infected and simply didn't know it , that sounds pretty thin to me.

A few of them maybe but all of them , no sir I think not.

www.medrxiv.org...

The spread of a novel pathogenic infectious agent eliciting protective immunity is typically characterised by three distinct phases: (I) an initial phase of slow accumulation of new infections (often undetectable), (II) a second phase of rapid growth in cases of infection, disease and death, and (III) an eventual slow down of transmission due to the depletion of susceptible individuals, typically leading to the termination of the (first) epidemic wave. Before the implementation of control measures (e.g. social distancing, travel bans, etc) and under the assumption that infection elicits protective immunity, epidemiological theory indicates that the ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 will conform to this pattern. 
...
Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow
I guess you have not heard that a lot of people get Covid and don't even go to the doctor because they don't feel that sick, if at all. On the other hand, just like the flu, it can kill a lot of people, it might kill many more than the flu, but nobody knows for sure because it is a new virus.

It is this uncertainty, coupled with the deaths in places like Italy, France, Spain and even Sweden, that have people exercising caution.

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: asabuvsobelow
I guess you have not heard that a lot of people get Covid and don't even go to the doctor because they don't feel that sick, if at all. On the other hand, just like the flu, it can kill a lot of people, it might kill many more than the flu, but nobody knows for sure because it is a new virus.

It is this uncertainty, coupled with the deaths in places like Italy, France, Spain and even Sweden, that have people exercising caution.

I have heard Daskakik I have, I simply don't believe in coincidence or happenstance. This virus has become a joke , a well manufactured joke. It has killed very few people in the grand scheme of things so the media can't keep this up for ever, it does scare me though what they might do next in there desperation to make this real.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow
Opinion noted.

Fear noted.

What the virus actually does remains to be seen.

It is just like anything else, if YOU want to exercise due caution that is your prerogative. If others do not, that is their choice & risk to take. Yes, you could die. That could be the result of ignoring the warnings. You could also die driving a car, or eating a big mac, or doing any number of other things. All about risk vs reward

And no one give me that crap about putting others at risk. If you are taking precautions you aren't at risk. Wear your mask, wash your hands, don't touch your face whatsoever. Wear your goggles or glasses and faceshields. Enjoy them. You are probably smart for wearing them.

I wear a mask in public too, but I still go in public. I shop. I spend money. I get take-out. I spend time with friends, family and the people who matter most to me. I wear a mask for THEM not for me.

But ultimately, if YOU don't want the risk YOU need to take the precautions.

a reply to: JBurns
It is just like everything else. It is your choice, until the state forces you and then...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

It says 505,000 active cases in the US.
Do you think that represents all infections?

Worldometers stopped showing their statistic for "serious cases". They're now lumping people with mild symptoms (the vast majority of infected) together with those who may actually need to visit a hospital or use a respirator.


"Total infections" is probably vastly underrepresented due to so many never having symptoms enough to know they have it.

It's also an utterly meaningless statistic.

"Severe cases", if it were even being kept, would probably be very accurate, because most doctors don't want to be sued for malpractice. They probably won't stupidly mis-diagnose (although they were doing so in the early stages months ago.)



Unfortunately, all we have is the useless statistic.



As for deaths.......... realistically how likely do you think it is that that statistic would be less than the real amount? (As opposed to greater than the real amount, such as if a patient has a gunshot wound to the head, but tests positive.)

I live in Korea and work on an Army base. The Army is giving Article 15s to soldiers who break the social distancing rules or eat at a restaurant for example, contractors get banned from the base for two years.

The base has everyone working from home and limiting PX and Commissary access. They track the COVID numbers daily and as cases are disappearing due to the Korean government and USFK aggressive measures, things are slowly starting to open again.

Korea and the USFK are a COVID success story. They are not a part of some conspiracy theory. We just look at the USA and the naysayers in disbelief. It is so much safer over here, people dont want to to back to the USA because some nuts are not taking it seriously.