originally posted by: SpaceJockey1
One thing I don't believe, is the data coming our of China about containment etc.
Similar data is coming out of the rest of Asia though, most countries can keep the spread of the virus below China's 56 cases per 1 million people,
and there isn't a single one where the virus seems to be spreading as fast as in Europe (or where the increase in this number is still heavily on the
rise as it is in Europe); as far as I can see that is. South Korea is the worst hit with 174 cases per 1 million pop but there's a decline in the new
cases per day and they have a low fatality rate, which could mean there are less unreported cases compared to those countries with a high fatality
rate. Most are still below China's 56 cases per 1 million pop though (Singapore has 74 but only 2 deaths).
In comparison the spread of Corona per 1 million pop elsewhere is (going through the countries sorted in order of absolute number of deaths on the
worldometers website):
Italy: 886 (and rising fast)
Iran: 245 (not rising as fast as Europe anymore)
Spain: 545
France: 222 (still rising significantly faster than most Asian countries, but not as fast as Italy and Spain)
USA: 81 (not too bad, rising slightly less fast than France was in the previous week, still already higher than China though, and China remains at 56
for a while now)
UK: 74 (overtaken by USA in the past couple of days, doing much better than the rest of Europe, but high fatality rates suggest the disease may be
more widespread than this number indicates, and again, the spread is much faster than in Asia)
Netherlands: 212 (following France closely, both in spread speed and fatality rates)
Germany: 267 (but they have that freaky low fatality rate of < 0.4%; they seem to have a lot of respirators and do even more tests than S.Korea;
Austria and Norway have similar low fatality rates, might their climate have something to do with their breathing?)
Switzerland: 793 (fatality rate slighty rising above 1% in the past couple of days)
Belgium: 243 (following the pattern in France and the Netherlands, slightly lower fatality rate of about 2.4% compared to France's 3.9% and
Netherlands' 3.8%)
I won't do the countries with less than 50 deaths other than to mention that there are a lot of big Asian countries that are doing better than the
countries above in this regards (number of deaths, spread of the virus per 1 million pop, spread speed, i.e. how fast the spread of the virus per 1
million pop is rising, and fatalities per 1M pop). Countries such as Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines all have better results in containment and
treatment (less cases and deaths per 1 million pop, and less increase over time in those statistics).
One more tab to sort on in the table from worldometers.info would be useful to have though: Tot Deaths/1M pop. Then you can really see who's hit the
hardest regardless of how many tests those countries do or how many unreported cases there are, well... sort of (given the numbers that
are
available regarding Corona-related deaths, there are probably less instances percentage-wise of unreported Corono-related deaths than unreported
Corona cases, so you get a more accurate listing of who's hit the hardest in terms of death than when sorting on Tot Cases/1M pop).
Still looking for some useful graphs in this regards. Just looking at the absolute numbers of cases or fatality rates alone doesn't tell me much in
terms of how bad the Corona problem is or is going to get in a particular country. You really need to compare it to the population of said country to
get a more accurate picture of that. And to gage (gauge? measure and estimate) the effectiveness of certain measures of containment and methods of
treatment and compare them as they differ from country to country, it would be helpful if the graphs could reflect that comparison with the population
of a country for a better representation of the situation. For example a graph that compares the increase over time of the Tot Cases/1M pop with
different countries. Or the increase of Tot Deaths/1M pop. Both are good indicators of how fast the disease is spreading amongst the population of
that country. Maybe someone knows another website other than worldometers.info that might have such graphs.
edit on 22-3-2020 by whereislogic
because: (no reason given)