Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: saladfingers123456

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
WE GOT UP TO 350,000 cases pretty quickly since 250,000 only last week.

I think we can assume we'll hit a million cases in about 4 or 5 weeks from now.

Deaths are pretty low though, so we have to be thankful for that at around 15,500 which maybe makes it 40,000 deaths when we hit 1 million cases.

4-5 weeks? On this curve, which for some reason has slowed a little bit, we;re on course for 1 million by early next week easily. By April 1st, you should see between 2 - 2.5 million cases.If it hits that mark, it'll really start climbing. We've yet to really see what has happened in India too.

Re: death rate, that too might see some sharp increases over your estimate, because hospitals will be faltering by that point. Hope I'm wrong, but the curve doesn't lie. It's just a case of acceleration. This is why I draw attention to stupidity of the masses going for one last jolly. The virus and hospital systems didn't need that extra help.

And Africa (60-70% HIV carriers so immune systems already shot)! Final numbers and that might be next year will be between 4-8m and 0.5bn-1.5bn. The question will that be the infected or death window.

originally posted by: Toinski
a reply to: NxNWest

Thanks NxNWest!

I'm still coughing and it hurts, slight fever. The strange thing is, the fever is not constant. Shaking goes on and off. Don't know why.

Stay safe and take care of your loved ones!

Again thanks for your compassion, much appreciated!

Kind regards,

T

Good luck.

I just made this, and it is far from accurate, but it's just to indicate how the curve bends to 1 million over the next week.

(Right click on picture and "open image in new tab" or similar to view full size.

I want to repeat, this is just for rough guidance and nothing more... based upon the JHU graph on bottom right of their stats page.

originally posted by: saladfingers123456

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
WE GOT UP TO 350,000 cases pretty quickly since 250,000 only last week.

I think we can assume we'll hit a million cases in about 4 or 5 weeks from now.

Deaths are pretty low though, so we have to be thankful for that at around 15,500 which maybe makes it 40,000 deaths when we hit 1 million cases.

4-5 weeks? On this curve, which for some reason has slowed a little bit, we;re on course for 1 million by early next week easily. By April 1st, you should see between 2 - 2.5 million cases.If it hits that mark, it'll really start climbing. We've yet to really see what has happened in India too.

Re: death rate, that too might see some sharp increases over your estimate, because hospitals will be faltering by that point. Hope I'm wrong, but the curve doesn't lie. It's just a case of acceleration. This is why I draw attention to stupidity of the masses going for one last jolly. The virus and hospital systems didn't need that extra help.

It's tough to work out realistic figures because there are so many variables, but even using low estimates - and as unbelievable as it sounds - by 5th April deaths may well be over 20,000 per day.

The numbers start to look truly frightening.

EDIT: Theres a very interesting article linked to below about why it's so difficult to work out the CFR.

Basically it's because the disease takes time to kill you, it isn't instantaneous.

So the number of people who were reported as dying by WHO on 22nd (so will be deaths from 21st March) (1600 of them) will have become ill 2 to 3 weeks ago.

So the CFR is the number of deaths on the 21st divided by the number of cases 2 to 3 weeks earlier.

From 2 weeks ago that makes it over 6%, obviously from 3 weeks ago it'll be even higher.

CFR

Sorry I said April 1st... for 2-2.5, but actually probably more like 3rd-4th of April.
My early interpretation is thankfully too steep, which is good news. It is still steep though.

From French Live feed :

17h03 : W.H.O. " The Pandemic is accelerating".

17h11 : Angela Merkel tests Negative for Coronavirus. Continues working from Home.

www.20minutes.fr...

If you use the method I mentioned above to work out CFR:

On 21st March there were 1600 deaths outside China.

2 weeks earlier there were 21,110 confirmed cases outside China, giving a CFR of 7.5%

3 weeks earlier there were 6009 confirmed cases outside China, giving a CFR of 26.63%

I guess the real number is going to be nearer to 7.5%, or I hope it isn't higher than that. I hope my maths is rubbish and it's a lot lower.

Or maybe this is why the world is falling apart - the true numbers are catastrophic?

I'm going to try and do an animation/video to show the curve in action. It might help some get their head around the acceleration aspect. Maybe useful to show others who don't understand how the relatively low figures of the past month or so explode into much higher figures.
I'm really not sure what to do with my time and skills, and I guess something like this might be useful.

54 more deaths in UK today

EDIT: Using that calculation for CFR:

2 weeks ago we only had 373 confirmed cases in UK. Today 54 deaths = 14.48% CFR

From Guardian Live Feed :

3.38pm (at the bottom of the Post), "EU Foreign Policy Chief, Joseph Borrel announced that :

Italy was among four countries to respond to a call of help from Croatia, after Zagreb was struck by its biggest earthquake in 140 years.

Italy, the EU country hardest hit by coronavirus, joined Austria, Hungary and Slovenia in offering to send tents, folding beds and other supplies, after Croatia on Sunday activated the EU’s civil protection mechanism – a call for emergency aid when facing a disaster.

3.56pm : Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Issues Sternly worded warning to his compatriots :

PM Trudeau: "Enough is enough. Go home & stay home. This is what we all need to be doing & we're going to make sure this happens, whether by educating people more on the risks or by enforcing the rules if that's needed. Nothing that could help is off the table."

twitter.com...

4.04pm : New York Passes 20000 cases (20,875)

Guardian Live Feed

More from the BBC live feed about the W.H.O. declaration that the "Pandemic is accelerating" :

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) says the coronavirus pandemic is "accelerating".

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 cases, and just four days for the third 100,000 cases.”

He said he would address G20 heads of state and government this week to ask them to work together to boost production of protective gear.

17h21, BBC Live Feed

For those that seem to need to know, BNOnews has a column for % of Deaths.

bnonews.com...

Just to continue my post from last night about McVirus... and McIdiots unable to control themselves...

Coronavirus: McDonald's fans queue for 'one last Big Mac' as police are called in

Sigh...

originally posted by: saladfingers123456
Just to continue my post from last night about McVirus... and McIdiots unable to control themselves...

Coronavirus: McDonald's fans queue for 'one last Big Mac' as police are called in

Sigh...

It's beyond belief.

I just wanted to add, that my home state Minnesota, is showing that our point of no return is March 25th- 30th. The news articles coming out over the last few days would suggest they are slowly preparing the public for a shelter in place order. Reading between the lines of course.

My husband works in a train yard and got a letter allowing him to be out because he's an essential worker.

originally posted by: llreactionll

This tool is built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.

Here are the questions we built this tool to answer:

What will the impact be in my region be and when can I expect it?

How long until my hospital system is under severe pressure?

What are my menu of interventions, and how will they address the spread of Coronavirus?

covidactnow.org...

a reply to: lostgirl


Any official that ignores the fact that US studies say it can linger in the air for up to 3 hours is horrifically irresponsible. Your idiot governor needs the info in the link. You aren't the only one with an idiot governor. Sadly.

link:
www.cnbc.com...

US NEWS: President Trump will reassess where the U.S. stands, around April 2nd.

theconservativetreehouse.com...

From BBC Live Feed at 17h55 : States in Bidding War for Medical Gear.

Mr Cuomo echoed concerns from officials throughout the country about states competing against each other for supplies amid widespread shortages.

“I’m bidding up other states,” he said. “California offers them $4, I offer $5, another state calls in and offers $6. It’s not the way to do it.”

The governor said he had spoken to Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker, who has also expressed anxiety about the state-by-state bidding war for desperately needed supplies, such as masks and ventilators.

From the UK side of things, at 18h10, "7,563 Retired Clinical NHS Staff Volunteer to return to Work".

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock says "I want to pay tribute to every single one of them"

www.bbc.com...

Italy's updated.

4789 new cases and 602 new deaths today in Italy (March 23)



www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: saladfingers123456
Just to continue my post from last night about McVirus... and McIdiots unable to control themselves...

Coronavirus: McDonald's fans queue for 'one last Big Mac' as police are called in

Sigh...

After living in the UK for 20 years, +USA +Canada, I'm not the least surprised by the reaction. Authorities could have prepared better or closed everything without notice.

Here in Italy every eatery and restaurant shutdown literally overnight. It didn't give people time to mourn over their favourite hangout. It was cold turkey, oops, I meant cold McChicken for many.

Fortunately, we have a good base national cuisine and people are getting back to home cooking, more healthy, too... shame about the virus that's the real killer.

One thing is for sure, Italy will never starve... We'll just die happy on a full stomach. Sorry, I'm always looking out for the irony in predicaments.

Stay safe, stay home and learn to cook!