Are you doing anything differently because of Coronavirus?

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Not at present in terms of day to day.

We've laid in a little extra in case of supply chain disruptions or being asked to stay at home in this area.

We've discussed courses of action in case that should come to pass, and watch the progression of things.

Husband has had his international travel for work postponed until September.

But we also continue to plan and live as though things are going to carry on too.

We are up to about a month supply of food, water, pet food/supplies, paper products, and toiletries. Also picked up vitamin supplements, acetaminophen, sanitizers and masks/gloves. Trying to limit to mostly items that we will use anyway, just getting more at once. Of course being extra cautious about what we touch and hand washing. We are trying to find a middle ground and be as ready as possible if it goes full crisis mode, while avoiding actions that would be irresponsible or reckless in the miraculous event that it all blows over.

I don't get the whole "no reason to panic, more people die from...." line of thought though. That can be totally true, and there's still a problem. It's a straw man argument, distract from the other concerns and focus on one that's easier to minimize. It also assumes, incorrectly, that the only issue is the number dead. The big concern, as far as I'm concerned, is economical. It's not about the number dead, but the number incapacitated whether by long term illness, quarantine, or death. It's about the effect on the workforce.

My husband has been throwing out counterarguments like "what if it's being exaggerated, or there isn't even a virus and it's just an attempt to create panic for some other reason, and how do we know what's fake". I respond the same way every time, there's plenty we can't know and it's not actually that important to as far as our response goes. Any widespread panic/supply chain disruption will have the same outcome. It doesn't matter one iota what the truth behind it is if people are reacting to it on a large scale. It could be a complete fabrication, and if the general public is treating it as the truth the end result will be the same. That is why we are preparing. We can't get bogged down in "what ifs" or "how do we knows". The only important thing is what is happening as a result. What is happening warrants action and planning.

a reply to: Occam78

No, it's not really.

People are acting like of society will break down from mass death.

This will be closer to the Spanish Flu where society was severely strained because so many were sick all at once and could not carry on normal day to day activities until they recovered.

Yeah, that will cause economic disruptions, but it should not cause complete societal collapse. People are panicking like we're headed for the Black Death or worse where a third of the world's population will die.

I use heavy duty disposable gloves at the gym and hand sanitizer on them every time I switch machine.

So far in South Africa (although I could make a separate thread on the implications for our country, or conspiracies that it's already here), but for me personally: I've been getting double portions of sashimi from the Chinese take-away.

And I'm not joking, third time now mom brings me salmon sashimi she gets while shopping and banking at the mall from the Chinese take-away.
Wow, I got 6 pieces instead of 3?

Mom says, yeah for the same price, and the Chinese people are always sooo delighted to see me, because most of their business has disappeared.

Strange this should be a first social symptom - guilt by association, or stigma of entire communities, perhaps xenophobia (even if none of them have been to China in years).

So until now, I'm eating a lot more sashimi, which is good for my protein intake.

And yeah we are prepping for an emergency, at least for three weeks - big bags of dried rice and beans and samp and stuff.
Although in SA we've always been half prepped due to the political situation.

And we did order masks from the local pharmacy, but been three weeks and they haven't called back yet to let us know to collect them.
Thought I'm just gonna wear my motorcycle helmet in an emergency.

No, because most people who get it, it's just like a mild flu, so not bothered.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Yeah, I am not eating anything that I didn't prepare.


Ingestion is probably a great way to get something you don't want.


People would be crazy to go to a buffet right now in my opinion. How many people are coughing? How many people are touching the serving utensils?

I live in an isolated mountain community of few thousand people. Nothing has changed here much. The opposite is true here too. If you don't stock a month worth of supplies at all times you get laughed at...

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I say that as I personally am not worried about this illness at all. Why? 14-41k people died in US tied to the standard old flu in 2019.

The flu infects about 13% of the U.S. population with an R-0 (R zero) value of 1.3. Meaning each person that gets the flu will spread it to 1.3 people on average. So about 36 million people will get the flu. And out of that 36 million people roughly 13k people will die. So we are looking at a mortality rate of about .036%.

Now on to Covid-19. The R-0 value best estimate is about 2.3 which translates into many more people getting Covid-19 than the flu. It is estimated that about 60% of the U.S. will contract Covid-19. This disease also has a much greater mortality rate than the flu which is about 2.3%. These numbers may seem small but let's translate them into the scenario we are likely to be facing in the very near future. 60% of the U.S. population is about 200 million people estimated to contract covid-19 in the U.S. With a 2.3% mortality rate we are looking at an estimated death toll of 4,554,000 people in just the U.S. alone.

That's a far cry from the little 13k of people dying from the flu.

All of my numbers come from authoritative sources listed below.

Flu stats WebMD

Covid-19 stats
University of Minnesota

Centers for Disease Control and prevention (CDC)

Today officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that although the agency is taking historic measures to slow the introduction of COVID-19 into the United States, the country should prepare for the possibility of community spread, as seen in China and neighboring Asian countries.

"The day may come when we may need to implement such measures as seen in Asia," Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a press conference, referencing the closing of businesses, schools, and churches in multiple countries where transmission is now occurring within the community.

Source

I have been stockpiling canned and dry goods and lots of water. I have also bought a supply of various disinfectants and plastic to cover my windows and doors in case we need to quarantine ourselves in our home.

originally posted by: Jay-morris
No, because most people who get it, it's just like a mild flu, so not bothered.

It's the flu bro isn't going to cut it much longer in my opinion when possibly 20% of those infected will have to be taken care of in the hospital for weeks.

The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days
www.reddit.com...

5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients

Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases.

Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer.

a reply to: infolurker

This is a scary aspect to consider. Once the medical system is overburdened the mortality rate will rise.

About a week and a half ago I got coughed on by the older Chinese gentleman who owns the neighborhood 7/11 and since then....as a baby boomer with asthma...my routine has been to worry everyday about every little funny feeling in my body and to check to see if any cases have been reported here in Virginia where I live.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: infolurker

This is a scary aspect to consider. Once the medical system is overburdened the mortality rate will rise.

Yeah, glad someone is catching on.... 20% required weeks of care.

Now the "it's just the flu" boys will say "but the flu puts people in the hospital as well".

Yeah, it does.... and the flu hasn't stopped because of the new virus. Just add that to the flaming heap of "not enough care and facilities" to go around.

a reply to: infolurker

Many people are in for a rude awakening. We should also consider the economic and financial effects this disease will cause in its likely spread. Schools and government buildings shut down, construction at a standstill, people avoiding the movies, stadiums, flea markets and other places and the stock market down among other things will have a large negative impact on our society.

oh god, please stop, its nothing like the flu, comparing it to flu is like comparing a horse & cart against car

I’ve got extra food supplies (close to a months worth) plus making sure we’ve got all the essential meds (epilepsy and asthma). I’m already a germaphobe anyway so I’ll just nag the family even more to wash their hands/not touch their face when out and about etc.

That’s it right now, unless cases start popping up close by then I’ll be limiting being in crowded areas etc.


FYI Midlands, UK

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: infolurker

Many people are in for a rude awakening. We should also consider the economic and financial effects this disease will cause in its likely spread. Schools and government buildings shut down, construction at a standstill, people avoiding the movies, stadiums, flea markets and other places and the stock market down among other things will have a large negative impact on our society.

Yep....

Just an approximation here.... Average Flu season 50 million infections requiring almost a million hospitalizations 2%. If those statistics from China hold true (20% requiring weeks in the hospital) and this virus is as easy or easier to catch as flu, then if 50 million got it that would be 10 million hospitalizations.

Let's hope this does not even get close to that level but for possibilities sake, those are the numbers.

a reply to: halfoldman

Dont forget to stock up on Meds, those would be the most devastating hit, if China cant get back on its feet in a few months.

Weve stocked up on all the norm.........but also added several bottles of coloidal silver, Oregano Oil, Clove Oil and Black Elderberry (this stuff is amazing) and Big bottles of vit C.

Weve started taking double doses of the vit C and a tablespoon of Elderberry a day to boost our immune systems.......


An ounce of prevention is worth more than a pound of cure

a reply to: ManBehindTheMask

Yip and worried about my chronic HIV meds (ARVs).

You only get a month's supply at a time.

Not really sure how to stockpile that, even if I skipped one here and there and putting it aside.

We've got 8 million HIV-poz people in SA (although I'm on medical aid, and not on the state plan).

Added to this is that ARVs have already been used in Thailand and possibly elsewhere to treat Corona, since it's also an RNA-based retrovirus. So demand is likely to sky-rocket.

Well, it's the one thing I need that I can't stockpile.

So if this should all last for months, even if the Corona doesn't catch me, gonna be like a slow puncture again ...