Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

originally posted by: BowBells
a reply to: tennisdawg

Are you able to say whether any of those confirmed came off that cruise ship off of New York? (At least I believe it was New York?) I read that 3 had been diagnosed with 'flu' and i wonder what the post mortem will reveal for the crew member that was found dead but apparently nothing to do with the virus..?

It looks like someone saw my last post before I deleted it. I can suggest that a couple of the confirmed cases are from New Jersey, but they cannot locate them currently. No idea if it is from the cruise ship fiasco or not.

a reply to: misfit312

I posted one off YouTube upthread.



I would also read John Barry's The Great Influenza.

Keep in mind that Spanish Flu was an accomplished spreader, and it killed. But it wasn't highly lethal in the sense of having a super high mortality rate.

What was super scary about it was that everyone got sick from it all at once because no one had ever had it before. It came in waves. So when it took people through death, they also died in mass waves and it made it seem like everyone was dying. Spanish was also scary because it did things no one knew flu could do and it killed across all age groups.

Honestly, there are a lot of parallels between what we're seeing in China now, and what you will see in that video or read about in Barry's book.

No, this isn't the flu, but it is a novel strain of a virus we do see in humans every year. Because of that, we will get very sick from it and it will have symptoms we would not think such a thing could produce, but it will. And because it's a new strain to humans, it will hit in waves, so that everyone will get sick all at once, and that will disrupt society as much because everyone is flat on their back sick as from any other reason. And then, everyone who is going to die will do so all at once too so that it seems like a super high death toll when it may not actually be as compared to other seasonal bugs.

The real difference will be in how many get sick from it and how close together all those who die ... well die.

a reply to: tennisdawg

Idiots.

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

Playing Devil's advocate, superspreaders have always been a concern since this started, and there are cases like that in history, like Typhoid Mary, who infected 50 people.

As to how can we know he's a super spreader, the German tourist in La Gomera didn't manage to even his 4 close friends, who were traveling and sharing an hotel room with him. They keep on testing negative both on the antibody test and the tests made with the proper testkit.

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

Most outbreaks have super spreaders. They identified numerous during the 03 SARS outbreak

originally posted by: tennisdawg

originally posted by: BowBells
a reply to: tennisdawg

Are you able to say whether any of those confirmed came off that cruise ship off of New York? (At least I believe it was New York?) I read that 3 had been diagnosed with 'flu' and i wonder what the post mortem will reveal for the crew member that was found dead but apparently nothing to do with the virus..?

It looks like someone saw my last post before I deleted it. I can suggest that a couple of the confirmed cases are from New Jersey, but they cannot locate them currently. No idea if it is from the cruise ship fiasco or not.

I KNEW something would happen with that NJ ship when they let everyone off!

3 cases in California USA come from outside Wuhan in Guangdong

LINK

originally posted by: MaverickLRD

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

Most outbreaks have super spreaders. They identified numerous during the 03 SARS outbreak

I know but my point is that for the 3rd confirmed case in the UK to be a super spreader - a super spreader being out of the norm obviously, otherwise they wouldn't be a super spreader - is very unlikely.

Maybe no. 9999 out of 50000 cases is a super spreader - not no. 3 out of 3.

originally posted by: NxNWest

originally posted by: misfit312
a reply to: ketsuko

You mentioned earlier how this was unfolding a lot like the Spanish Flu...do you have a good book or documentary you can recommend?

I just ordered Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu Of 1918 And How It Changed The World. It was delivered today.

I have also read a great article by The Smithsonian that I mentioned days back.

I would also be interested in any other suggestions Ketsuko or any other members have.


www.smithsonianmag.com...

Make sure you check the "made in ____" sticker...

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

You are correct in your statement that super-spreaders will only be really determined after more data is mined. You CAN identify characteristics of possible super-spreaders from the current data though.

In this case, I have been told that Super Spreaders have a high probability of being asymptomatic. This is by design, and will be used to confirm the artificial creation/manipulation of this virus. Super Spreaders for coronavirus will have a MINIMUM R0 of 10 using today's data.

a reply to: Power_Semi

Maybe it's another instance of what we're seeing in the rest of world not matching what we're seeing China.

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: MaverickLRD

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: AngelsDecay
In my humble opinion and expressing only my feelings out of China, if we didn't have these 3 peculiar / particular cases which are:

1) the cruise ship
2) Singapore meeting
3) the very recent British super spreader individual

I have the felling we could said that cases were really decreasing and back to normal... (out of China)
But as I said, only my personal pov... Peace, AD

"Super spreader" = propaganda / shaping public opinion as an alternative to "normal spreader".

How many of you had even heard of a super spreader before it appeared in the news alongside this guy, and with the disease in it's infancy and possibly a 24 day incubation - how have they determined he's spreading it far farther than the norm?

You need to have ALL of the data and know the Ro before you can determine if someone spreads at a higher or lesser rate than the average.

Most outbreaks have super spreaders. They identified numerous during the 03 SARS outbreak

I know but my point is that for the 3rd confirmed case in the UK to be a super spreader - a super spreader being out of the norm obviously, otherwise they wouldn't be a super spreader - is very unlikely.

Maybe no. 9999 out of 50000 cases is a super spreader - not no. 3 out of 3.

Typically the 80/20 rules applies...80% infected from 20% of those with the virus

Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 2,097 new cases and 103 new deaths

bnonews.com...

originally posted by: tennisdawg
I have been told that Super Spreaders have a high probability of being asymptomatic.

Yeah, that seems to be a popular message. I read it last night from the BBC article talking about their super spreader and then today...
thehill.com...

Usually, super spreaders are asymptomatic themselves, and yet the disease in their bodies has progressed to the point of being communicable.

You're also right, whether it came from nature or a lab, that's one hell of a genetic advantage for the virus.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Power_Semi

Maybe it's another instance of what we're seeing in the rest of world not matching what we're seeing China.

That's my worry - if that is the real norm, or even if one out of every 3 spreads it at that rate - maybe it explains a bit more clearly why China went into overdrive and lockdown while only reporting c400 confirmed cases.

If that is the norm then we're in big trouble.

a reply to: Power_Semi

Wouldn’t you only need one like that to go out shopping and cough and touch things and the repercussions of that would be 100-1000s indirectly infected? ( if it survives on surfaces for up to 9 days)

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Power_Semi

Wouldn’t you only need one like that to go out shopping and cough and touch things and the repercussions of that would be 100-1000s indirectly infected? ( if it survives on surfaces for up to 9 days)

I guess so. How bad this gets depends on how many there are like that, and whether we can treat it better.

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Power_Semi

Wouldn’t you only need one like that to go out shopping and cough and touch things and the repercussions of that would be 100-1000s indirectly infected? ( if it survives on surfaces for up to 9 days)

Just to add onto my previous answer - the GP surgery in Uk where they are "deep cleaning" it.

There are photos of guys in hazmat suits just mopping the floors, and behind them all of the products on all of the shelves haven't even been touched. All still lined up for sale.

What use is that?

EDIT - they're not even in hazmat suits, just white overalls, socks showing, no eye guards - they look like cleaners in smocks - I bet that's all they are.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
I believe the 24 incubation period comes from this paper
www.medrxiv.org...
"The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)"

Thats the same paper - and again, it doesn't say anything whatsoever about how they arrived at the number '24' when they gave the range. And again, the rest of the numbers are actually very encouraging... only about 5% have serious complications requiring treatment (hospitalization), and only 1.3% die.

Yes but 93.6% of the cases are still in hospital so we are faced with the usual dilemmas debating the mortality rate. But very basic info from the paper should be safe enough. Wouldn't be so confident about 24 day incubation, but would certainly be on my mind if I ever needed to quarantine myself or anyone else.

Gave the wrong link before, that was just the abstract, here's full pdf. Useful data in the tables at the bottom.
www.medrxiv.org...

The illness lasts from symptoms to death 23 - 27 days

It seems when the flu like conditions materialise it’s just a few short days until the breathing pneumonia symptoms, hence the hundreds of videos of people dropping dead in there streets while China is waging a war on information

Now think of the hospital bed requirements

Lol just lol it’s staggering

FAKE AGAIN !! MISINFORMATION!

They're not dropping dead, they're losing consciousness because they're not used to breathing with a mask on.
Have you tried having a mask on all day?

Yes, and it didn't make me pass out anywhere.