Dec 12th, 2019 UK General Election Thread

No election thread up yet, so starting one.
I have not put this in the mudpit, as I wanted to start a thread about who we think will win and then track the results as they come in.
Please add any good election trackers or polling that you find.

Despite the way the campaigns are going - claim and counter claim - it appears to me that the election is all about Brexit.

For our non UK friends, the UK votes by constituency. There are 650 across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Votes are given to candidates in each constituency with a first past the post system.
We don't vote for a Prime Minister - that role generally goes to the head of the party that wins the most constituencies (seats).
Having said that, the leader of each party is very important to people when they cast their vote for a party representative in their constituency.

Here are a couple of forecasts based on polling data up to thsis week.



principalfish.co.uk...



www.electoralcalculus.co.uk...

Looks strong right now for the Conservatives and Boris Johnson, however Theresa May was also a strong favourite prior to the 2017 election and just about squeezed into #10 by forming a coalition with the DUP (who won seats in Northern Ireland constituencies).

Only the Conservatives and the Labour Party have a chance of winning.
Put simply, if the Conservatives win, we leave the EU. If Labour win, we remain in the EU.

The current headline issue is the NHS. Labour are making a play to tap into anti-Trump sentiment by making the 'sale of the NHS to the US and Trump' a major part of their campaign. They are hoping that the British people are stupid enough to believe that discussions about buying drugs from US Pharma companies means we're selling the NHS to Trump.

The Conservatives seem to be majoring on Labour's position of stifling Brexit and not having a clear strategy as well as anti-semitism within the Labour party - which is ovewrblown propaganda.

The Brexit Party have decided to only compete in constituencies where the Tories are behind Labour so as to give Conservatives a free run and not canibalise votes in seats they should win.

Just over 2 weeks until election day.



It looks like a British version of Trump vs Sanders

a reply to: UKTruth

After seeing the Corbyn interview with Andrew Neil I was shocked at just how bad and unprepared Corbyn is. Labour stand no chance with him as their leader - he didn't even know that a government bond was debt!

a reply to: UKTruth

I believe Johnson will win and have a majority that will let him govern , I have a feeling Labour will suffer heavy losses and the Lib Dems will do OK.

As it stands at the moment I won't be voting on the 12th , Johnsons deal isn't Brexit in my eyes and leaves us weaker than we were in the EU , Farage can't be bothered to stand for his party so I can't be bothered to vote for them (doubt I would've anyway) the others are just antidemocratic scumbags.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: UKTruth

I believe Johnson will win and have a majority that will let him govern , I have a feeling Labour will suffer heavy losses and the Lib Dems will do OK.

As it stands at the moment I won't be voting on the 12th , Johnsons deal isn't Brexit in my eyes and the leaves us weaker than we were in the EU , Farage can't be bothered to stand for his party so I can't be bothered to vote for them (doubt I would've anyway) the others are just antidemocratic scumbags.

I live in a constituency that will most certainly vote Conservative - safe seat. I may not vote because of that. If it was close, I'd be holding my nose and voting for Johnson.

Despite the polling and predictions I think it will close again - possibly another hung parliament... which of course would be a disaster.

The contenders are the Conservatives and Labour. Just my opinion at this point.

- The Liberal Democrats won't do that well. Jo Swinson's message (whatever that is) has NOT chimed with voters, and even “leavers” think her contempt of democracy is unhealthy.

- The Labour Party has swung too far to the left to make it electable. Some people like it, but the politics of poor versus rich and class struggle, coupled with unnecessary nationalisation and a punitive business strategy does not assure the electorate. These policies were rejected in the 1980s. Furthermore, Labour's stupidity over Brexit has alienated a large block of their support, as has their perceived racism to Jews. Not many people think Corbyn is fit to be Prime Minister. I am sure many Labour MPs are worried, but seem to have all been castrated by Corbyn’s Momentum group.

- The Conservatives promise more of the same, which is mostly acceptable in the great scheme of things. Plus, of course they can sort Brexit and are more capable of setting a future UK direction. There’s distrust in Boris Johnson, but he is not the unintelligent oaf the Left try to portray him as.

Regardless of the posturing and ranting, the Conservatives are actually more centralist. Labour are too far left and the Liberals are one-shot and wet. The SNP are popularist nationalists who parrot division and are clever.

a reply to: UKTruth

It seems Jo Swinsons "Girlyswot" nonsense and general annoyingness is starting to rub the British public up the wrong way , also the Lib Dem heartland is in the South West Pro Brexit seats so their "scrap Brexit" stance could cost them dearly so I don't see the Lib Dems as a problem , they will likely pick up a few seats but I doubt it will be many.

I thinka lot of people will be holding their noses and voting Tory as a way to put Brexit to bed and punish the parties who have made it drag on this long.

If there is another Hung Parliament I'm emigrating , I can't take it anymore.

a reply to: paraphi

There’s distrust in Boris Johnson, but he is not the unintelligent oaf the Left try to portray him as.

No, he is just a liar.

Having been sacked twice for that offence.

a reply to: UKTruth

Conservatives all the way and for the majority of sane people out there expect them to vote for a continuation of tge same.As your typical working class white van man self employed idiot then there can be no option other than voting for boris and most similar people feel exactly the same. Corbin getting into power is our total worst nightmare as every timethe Labour get into power everything goes tits up with the economy and they manage to drain the country of all our wealthy indeed sell off all our gold. They pirtch the Pound high so all our manufacturers go bust and make it FAR too easy for the bone idle to get on tye benefits gravy train. Vote Conservative things are better under them

originally posted by: alldaylong
No, he is just a liar.

People know that. I think people know politicians lie sometimes, mostly by omission, or because they mistake statistics or context. People cannot stand deceit or smarmy deviousness, which Corbyn has tattooed on his forehead.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Vote Conservative things are better under them

Better for who ?

a reply to: paraphi

I think people know politicians lie sometimes

Johnson was sacked from " The Times " newspaper for lying. That was long before he became a politician.

The bloke is not to be trusted.

I'm not voting but I now think, Brexit-wise, we might be better off remaining.

We should never have joined in the first place and I curse the name of Ted Heath who signed us up without consulting the general public.

But sometimes, separating conjoined twins can be fatal for the patient/s.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: UKTruth

Conservatives all the way and for the majority of sane people out there expect them to vote for a continuation of tge same.As your typical working class white van man self employed idiot then there can be no option other than voting for boris and most similar people feel exactly the same. Corbin getting into power is our total worst nightmare as every timethe Labour get into power everything goes tits up with the economy and they manage to drain the country of all our wealthy indeed sell off all our gold. They pirtch the Pound high so all our manufacturers go bust and make it FAR too easy for the bone idle to get on tye benefits gravy train. Vote Conservative things are better under them

Since WW2 by most measures the economy has performed better under Labour.

Not to say Corbyn wouldn't tank the economy but the idea of the Conservatives as the 'party of the economy' is a bit of a myth.

a reply to: gortex

Better for people who work for a living.................... The economy is always better under the Tories and that means it filters down to the public. Anybody whi has been around during the Calahan or Blair Brown governments knows what happens when Labour gets in and ruins the show. It's simple, life is better if you are a hard worker and don't claim benefits under a Conservaitive government

a reply to: ScepticScot

Since WW2 by most measures the economy has performed better under Labour.

I checked that out a few months ago.

In fact it is true.

a reply to: ScepticScot

Total nonsense if you measure it by the average man in the street you will be better off undera Tory government. Callahan Brown and Blair were all a Commie plot to destroy our manufacturing by subsididisng them when they lost their competitiveness. Maggie bless her soul saved our country and built the foundations you see today.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: ScepticScot

Total nonsense if you measure it by the average man in the street you will be better off undera Tory government. Callahan Brown and Blair were all a Commie plot to destroy our manufacturing by subsididisng them when they lost their competitiveness. Maggie bless her soul saved our country and built the foundations you see today.

3 million unemployed Maggie.

Great for the 'man in the street'.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Maggie bless her soul saved our country and built the foundations you see today.

You posted that 6 minutes ago.

I have just stopped laughing.

a reply to: ScepticScot

all the coal mines and steel were eneconoic and needed closing down as the country was literally falling apart and everyone else was paying for those 3 million to exist in non profit jobs. Why should everyone else pay the wages for a miner who couldn't compete I the mat=rkets? Those miners etc were as good as employed but on benefits through the back door Same with much of big industry. It was a fchanged world and we were going off the edge of the cliff. Then comes Thatcher who gave belief back to the people by replacing the old with the new. She saved this country, created what we all experienced by the late 80s early 90s it was a great time..................... Foreign manufactures rushed to Britain curtesy of thatchers help to set up pants in the UK, believe me that was DEFO NOT happeneing under Callahan or later Brown Blair bitch project. Things really took off.............. If you actually got up off your arse by your shoelaces and went out learnt a trade where others would give you a wage for your time this country never had a peiod so good. In addition she took back our compatriots in tehAtlantic plus faced off the Soviets on the Continent with hardware and the will to win. Brilliant time and our modern country owes that Conservative governemt a massive debt

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Better for people who work for a living

Yeah , I'm one of them but all I've seen from the Tories is 10 years of Austerity , failing public services and an increase in homelessness , can't say I feel any better off than I did under the Blair government.