Trump wants to increase tariffs On china again .

a reply to: luthier

And yet, there's no argument that if they paid a market wage, legal workers would take that job. There are plenty of workers (even carpenters) who will even uproot for the right job. And higher wages would attract more interest from qualified workers in trade schools or entry-level positions.
You have to divorce labour from supply and demand to believe wages aren't depressed by flooding the labour pool. So again, you're either being deliberately obtuse or deliberately misleading.
Unemployment rates for construction (and Ag) are higher than the average unemployment rate across sectors. There is no shortage of legal labor.

a reply to: RadioRobert

Another meaningless stat. Unemployment yet jobs available. Maybe disability as well? Probably unqualified but called themselves a tradesman.

www.tradesmeninternational.com...

There is a study link. Do your homework. Look at major employer of electrical engineers and electricians in commercial and residential building for instance. Look at help wanted and monthly totals of job vacancies.

You are really naive here. As a carpenter myself I find it offensive you think unemployed "carpenters" mean they are qualified tradesmen. Or that any person particularly lazy Americans afraid of physical work is qualified to bust ass When then truck comes with a roof truss delivery.

What happened is one carpenter per several laborers became the norm. Especially remodels. Those undocumented workers mostly worked harder than many of the younger folks so they got it done faster and cheaper.

a reply to: luthier

Easier to find harder workers with higher wages... Unless you are okay exploiting brown people's poverty and legal status, of course.

a reply to: midnightstar

Is it not the business that import the products, that then have to pay these ""tariffs"", and then the cost is passed on to the consumer aka the American people?

If so it's not China that's getting the raw end of the deal as far as i can see.

a reply to: andy06shake

Then why would China be upset? You'd think they'd be dropping all their own tariffs and be unfazed by American tariffs... They must be upset America is taxing its citizens.

Yet every other country in the world protects their own industries with tariffs. And when America moves in that direction, you'd think the world was ending.


A tariff is also an entirely discretionary tax. You aren't required to purchase anything manufactured using imported Chinese product or manufactured by Chinese companies.

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: luthier

Easier to find harder workers with higher wages... Unless you are okay exploiting brown people's poverty and legal status, of course.

Not ok but pretending the only option is a trade war or controlling who can be hired tightly is a sham arguement.

The fact is the trades are desperate for workers, there are very high wages in the trades because of this and yet they can't get employees.


But sure keep using fallacious arguement.

Again all major construction companies have record shortages as the boomers retire.

The supply and demand curve is fallacious now. Got it.

It's not okay to exploit brown people and their legal status for their cheap labour, but stopping the exploitation isn't the answer... Bold moral stand there. "We can't pay brown people a living wage-- the price of lettuce would increase a quarter a head!"

a reply to: RadioRobert

I don't think the world is ending, we are not that lucky.

I do however imagine the common everyday person will be footing the bill for this crap.

Free trade my arse. LoL

originally posted by: RadioRobert
The supply and demand curve is fallacious now. Got it.

It's not okay to exploit brown people and their legal status for their cheap labour, but stopping the exploitation isn't the answer... Bold moral stand there. "We can't pay brown people a living wage-- the price of lettuce would increase a quarter a head!"

You got nothing but a straw man. And once again wages in construction are growing faster than most industries.

Your arguement is literally a left field strawman.

You seem to operate in a binary way. Where either you support a political narrative or you don't.

For instance stopping exploitation of labor. There is not just one way and if you don't do that you are for exploitation.

You would be better at politics than actual economics.

Back on topic. How do you see a trade war going without our allies and withoutthe support of congress?

How is shutting down ipo's going? Shouldn't that be step 1?

Sadly you have no idea how inept the president is in his methodology.


PS in real economics the supply and demand aspect is only 1 factor. The cause of black markets is a bit more nuanced. But hey I bet you knew that you just had yo follow a narrative. It makes sense since a supply and demand curve is for only two variables and it appears that matches your binary understanding.

a reply to: luthier

I've already said in multiple threads that the implementation of several tariffs made no sense. I've said that if the next guy/gal comes and unwinds it, it will have had little benefit but all of the downside.

PS in real economics the supply and demand aspect is only 1 factor. The cause of black markets is a bit more nuanced. But hey I bet you knew that you just had yo follow a narrative. It makes sense since a supply and demand curve is for only two variables and it appears that matches your binary understanding. 

There are many factors in the economy. That's why prices can be rising, but still artificially depressed by a glut of exploited illegal labour. You're the one arguing that isn't possible because the price for labour is still higher than some other sectors. You're everything you accuse everyone else of...

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: luthier

I've already said in multiple threads that the implementation of several tariffs made no sense. I've said that if the next guy/gal comes and unwinds it, it will have had little benefit but all of the downside.

PS in real economics the supply and demand aspect is only 1 factor. The cause of black markets is a bit more nuanced. But hey I bet you knew that you just had yo follow a narrative. It makes sense since a supply and demand curve is for only two variables and it appears that matches your binary understanding. 

There are many factors in the economy. That's why prices can be rising, but still artificially depressed by a glut of exploited illegal labour. You're the one arguing that isn't possible because the price for labour is still higher than some other sectors. You're everything you accuse everyone else of...

Please try and argue with facts.

At the beginning of this and ththe entire way I have explained with proof.

1. No historic record of tariff and trade wars benefitting the United states after 1812. Many àre a wash at best.

2. Donald trump has no idea nor do his councils how to approach a trade war. Attacking allies like canada, Australia, and Europe was an insurmountable mistake. You either work on restructuring your deals with allies or you choose the global competitor and lean on your allies when it gets tough to outlast the opponent. Even then it often becomes a wash and market reset doesnt bring the prize it was claimed to.

3. The massive economic bubble and over extension of credit for businesses, personal, and national debt all at an all time high create a disaster situation paired with inflation from rising cost due to tariffs. One small bump in the economy and the debt is over a trillion per year and consumers will retract while businesses are stretched with credit.

4. Democrats. They suck.

5. Republicans are useless

6. Wages in construction and the lack of employees trained and available was not caused solely or majorly by illegal labor. Illegal labor was a the solution to filling jobs that were essential for state and national GDP growth. A little dark secret Republicans don't want to talk about. Construction jobs are not like Amazon. When they are not filled the interstate in Dallas doesnt work and people can't get to work.. it was a terrible solution to the labor voids caused by baby boomers being the last of the trade school generation and literally having much lower population of new workers from lower birth rates.

These are complex issues my friend you talk a lot about honest discussions but it sure seems like you are struggling with actual facts and examples of how trump has the right ideas to win a trade war.

originally posted by: luthier

1. No historic record of tariff and trade wars benefitting the United states after 1812. Many àre a wash at best.

I guess we would have to meaningfully define "benefit" in a way that makes sense for us to have that conversation.

2. Donald trump has no idea nor do his councils how to approach a trade war. Attacking allies like canada, Australia, and Europe was an insurmountable mistake. You either work on restructuring your deals with allies or you choose the global competitor and lean on your allies when it gets tough to outlast the opponent. Even then it often becomes a wash and market reset doesnt bring the prize it was claimed to. 

Our allies are just as involved in unreciprocated tariffs on our goods as our enemies at this point. Everyone is allowed tp protect their native industries except the US. US tariffs are "a catastrophe in the making", other countries tariffs are "just the price of doing business in that country. We can't upset the status quo" says everyone who the MNc's have bought in the media and government.

3. The massive economic bubble and over extension of credit for businesses, personal, and national debt all at an all time high create a disaster situation paired with inflation from rising cost due to tariffs. One small bump in the economy and the debt is over a trillion per year and consumers will retract while businesses are stretched with credit. 

There is a massive debt bubble created by the Fed continually lowering rates. The answer to a bubble is never to keep inflating it until it finally pops. Soon they'll need to pay people to take out loans at a negative interest rate to maintain the fiction the status quo is fine and this is resulting in real, sustainable growth.

4. Democrats. They suck. 

5. Republicans are useless 

You may have significantly understated your argument here.

6. Wages in construction and the lack of employees trained and available was not caused solely or majorly by illegal labor.

Of course not that is why it can still grow despite being artificially depressed by a flood of unregulated, cheap labour. So what?

Illegal labor was a the solution to filling jobs that were essential for state and national GDP growth

I was unaware that breaking the law to create the illusion of GDP growth (ie, not organic nor sustainable) was the solution to a problem that doesn't exist in a real free market. You created "growth" by handing out money (debt) at unnaturally low rates while simultaneously flooding the labor market to stop wage growth. Congrats. The people left holding the bag are everyone else whose wages were depressed and "took advantage" of "cheap" debt .

You're not really for a free market. You want to keep blowing air into the bubble with the manipulations used by businesses and government to defend the status quo.

"We're facing a massive credit bubble, and we're funding a hostile government's military build-up with cash from a trade. Imbalance in one hand and in the other hand we give them technologies -- we'd better not do anything to address those issues because it might have a negative consequence. The GDP is ' growing '"

a reply to: RadioRobert

Red herrings now too?

You are worse then cnn.

So you believe we can outlast China without our allies? Lol.

And nowhere do I say its healthy to keep unregulated workers. I just am not naive enough to think it wasn't the causal relationship.

 was a terrible solution to the labor voids caused by baby boomers being the last of the trade school generation and literally having much lower population of new workers from lower birth rates. 

a reply to: luthier

We can definitely outlast China. Chinese economy is already overcapacity geared to discretionary consumer goods. No consumers in the world buy more discretionary crap at higher price points than the American consumer markets. There aren't enough sales to be made in the rest of the world to currently float the Chinese economy without access to the US market. Its a fact. It's why they are worried and blustering. Their tariffs are primarily on US ag products. So not only does a tit for tat tariff battle disadvantage them because of the imbalance ($130B in US exports to China, to $506B Chinese imports), the resulting consumer pain is primarily on discretionary spending in one market and on the food chain in the other.
Saying no one can win a trade war is the same as saying no wins an other war. It is true enough to reflect on the cost of battle inflicted upon both sides, yet also essentially and undeniably false. It is absolutely possible to win a war.

We've spent 40 yrs trying to jaw, jaw, jaw with China (and other countries) trying to address their mercantile protectionism which exaspertes trade imbalances. Trump is calling the bluff with carrot and a stick. It will absolutely be disruptive to the economy. We've tried every other method, and it has borne no fruit.


Our allies all know they are getting screwed by the same Chinese shaft. The choice to bend over or stand up is really theirs alone to make. They can try to leverage a resulting greater overcapacity in Chinese industry for their own markets while funding the same country that they currently have trade issues with and alienate the US, or try paying the short-term price to align new lines of trade with countries less openly antagonistic along with the US. That's their choice to make, not anyone else's. We all get an easier deal as a bloc, but the EU is already its own mercantile block. Maybe they value their protectionist tariffs on US goods, even cheaper Chinese consumer goods, and the status quo than they care about their own issues with China.

a reply to: RadioRobert

You can not win a war of any kind without allies. Period. Especially their supply lines.

Easy check mate.

a reply to: luthier

Empty words.

a reply to: RadioRobert

It's TRUE. Study history. That is right there is no examples of trade wars without allies. Have any from after the Roman empire?

a reply to: luthier

I cannot name a single war that outside antagonists have not tried to leverage, can you?

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: luthier

I cannot name a single war that outside antagonists have not tried to leverage, can you?

Boy you really can't argue anything based on economic principles can you?

A let's ignore history type of guy. Sure let's do an economic Vietnam. When it's over we can walk away with only suffering.

a reply to: RadioRobert

It's hilarious you believe we have been negotiating with china for 40 years and that the trump ram rod is the only option.

Twilight zone type discussion. Stuck in a binary code.