Do you think we are alone in the Milky Way?

So.. recent estimations for the Drake Equation (Maccone, 2012) suggest that there could be around 4,600 civilizations in our galaxy that are able to release detectable signals.

I find this number a little bit excessive, so I plugged some of the values of our Solar System into the equation and I obtained a smaller yet more realistic result, in my opinion: 50 civilizations.

Just in case someone is interested, I made a video showing the values I used: youtu.be/j2AIWIcn7Ig

Do you think 50 is a more realistic number?

a reply to: alfa015

It wouldn't matter if there were 5,000,000. We still can't reach them.

a reply to: alfa015

Maybe God made The Universe and Galaxies so large to stop each planet with life and civilisations from making contact with each other.

He wanted to keep us apart.

Just a thought.

But can they reach us? I would not assume that our state of scientific knowledge is the ultimate arbiter of that possibility. The Drake Equation is at least an attempt to factor in the relevant issues. It is an educated guess. OP, on the other hand, is simply guessing. I don't know anyone who thinks "we are alone." The usual statement you hear is something like, "The Universe is so vast, people who believe we are alone are just stupid." But this is a perfect example of a Straw Man argument. Nobody thinks that.

I don’t even think we are alone on Earth.

Do you think we are alone in the Milky Way?

No we are not alone.

But the question needs to be asked.

Why would they even come to this crazy train called Earth?

In my opinion, we definitely are not. Now, that isn't to say that everyone else in our galaxy is intelligent in the way that we view intelligence, they could just be space worms. But in my opinion, we definitely aren't alone.

I was a skeptic for the majority of my life in terms of extraterrestrials, but I've seen a couple things in the last decade that can be nothing other than UFOs/extraterrestrial intelligence, and it definitely changed my mind. So I know that something is out there, I just can't tell you where they're from.

a reply to: alfa015

No, I think it would be extraordinarily unlikely that we are alone. Enrico Fermi considered the seeming contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial life yet the lack of evidence and contact in his famous "Fermi's Paradox".

Here are a couple of fun and interesting videos by "Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell" that explore possible solutions to the paradox.





I also think it's important to consider that we've only been able to detect and emit radio waves and other electromagnetic emissions in the last couple hundred years. The universe has been operating on a time-scale of billions of years, something we can't even really comprehend. It might just be that contact takes a little bit longer than we'd all like.

a reply to: alfa015

My personal guess would be a few thousand planets harboring mostly primitive life and maybe a dozen or so having advanced civilizations.

Although as long as we have not found life elsewhere I wouldn't give much value to my own or the drake equation estimates.

a reply to: alfa015

Well we are here so the chances are better than zero.

There maybe some alien race asking the same question you asked.

a reply to: alfa015

Civilisations? Probably there's a bunch of them in our galaxy.

Other than that I'm sure there are tons of planets and planetoids with microbial life forms.

I'm not really sure we should be actively seeking interaction with other civilisations. We haven't even sussed out our own differences enough to stop killing each other and work together. Maybe we should figure that out first? Just a thought.

a reply to: VoiceOfTheEmperor

I like those vids but I wanted to add one from a very smart man Isaac Arthur.



His videos are amazing and if no one has ever watched or heard of him please give at least this gem a watch.

I'm speculating that "50" is an underestimated number --- But it's good for starters...

But you're equation might have to involve the number of star faring civilizations that have achieved interstellar flight --- which might dramatically increase the number.

Btw...nice vid.

originally posted by: Allaroundyou
a reply to: VoiceOfTheEmperor

I like those vids but I wanted to add one from a very smart man Isaac Arthur.

His videos are amazing and if no one has ever watched or heard of him please give at least this gem a watch.

Oh cool, I can't wait. Thanks!

a reply to: alfa015

I have my doubts that we're the only civilization in the galaxy. I'm certain that we are neither the first or the last.
our first hurdle with extra-terrestrial contact is the communications systems that we use.

Radio communication is close to useless in space, forget using that to make first contact. Space may be a vacuum but that doesn't mean radio waves can traverse outside our suns magnetic field. The best thing one can do is aim a nuclear flash device at a suspect exo-planet and send out a form of Morse code as light.
Scientists are considering using lasers to communicate with satellites.

It's a lot easier to just invent our own star ship than search for extra-terrestrial here.

a reply to: VoiceOfTheEmperor

Not a problem man!
I love his channel and have countless hours watching his videos.
Have fun

No I don't think we're alone, nor do I believe in aliens.

I believe we are instances of ourselves and other instances exist or have existed throughout our galaxy.

Not alternate realities, but the same reality over and over again.

Just as we were helped along by "aliens" in the past, at some point in our future we will discover an early instance of Earth and help them along too.

They will call us the Annunaki.

That's definitely a pretty complex question. Yes I think it's entirely possible there are multiple planets with intelligent life.

How many destroyed themselves before they got anywhere near interstellar travel?
How many were destroyed by natural occurrences before they reached that stage?

Considering the huge amount of time involved, we may be the only one currently in existence, while many others may have come and gone.

We've only been sending out signals that could be intercepted for about a century. The chance we have been noticed is pretty minuscule. The chance we will find an alien civilization is also minute and interstellar travel may well be beyond our means for centuries if it's even possible.

I'd say that the chance of contact between us and another civilization on another celestial body is so small as to be almost statistically meaningless and could be considered zero for practical purposes.

a reply to: alfa015

Anything would be guessing..

But I guess either they are already visiting us.. or we are visiting our self from the future.
there are lots of data to support that.

Beside that I do believe other lifeforms are out there speculating about the same things we do.

Its hard to set a number on it.. when you only have 1 as a starting point.

But I expect we will make undeniable contact in the next 10 years.

If we are alone then its a big waste of space. There could be a planet made our of diamond out there