Issuing a challenge to conservative's

a reply to: toysforadults

Wait? For what? The fact that you've been proved wrong to penetrate your skull?

a reply to: Dfairlite

Hahaha.

Sure whatever bud. Why dont you go through the last year of my posting following the economy. Feel free to pick a part each individual thread and post more ignorance and insults and I will just continue to keep doing what I'm doing while you are proven wrong

No need to debate with you when you are as arrogant as you are. Once again time will prove me correct.


All I gotta do is wait and your arrogance will take care of itself.

I would also like to point out. In your ignorance you never actually addressed the topic of the thread.

a reply to: toysforadults

Why dont you go through the last year of my posting following the economy. Feel free to pick a part each individual thread and post more ignorance and insults and I will just continue to keep doing what I'm doing while you are proven wrong

I have on multiple occasions. And you do the same thing in each one, you get backed into a corner of ignorance and stop responding. Then you continue on with a new, economically ignorant, post.

No need to debate with you when you are as arrogant as you are. Once again time will prove me correct.

Two things on this one:
1) I have made no predictions so time won't prove me right or wrong.
2) You've proven to not understand the following:
a) Fed mechanisms
b) Inflation
c) The mandate of the fed
d) Why deflation is avoided like the plague
e) Why the fed takes certain actions in each situation
f) Typical economic indicators reactions during a recession

All I gotta do is wait and you will prove I don't know what I'm talking about.

FTFY

I would also like to point out. In your ignorance you never actually addressed the topic of the thread.

I most certainly did, you just conveniently started responding to my conversation with BigFatFurryTexan, rather than my reply to you. Feel free to respond to that now.

So yet again you've been proved incorrect.

Lastly,
I'll let you in on a few little secrets about me, I don't fancy having to explain things more than once to people on the internet because it's written down and you can read it as many times as you like. One of my theses was on QE and how it has affected the economy. I understand more about markets, money, and banking than you could ever wish to. Yes, I'm arrogant about what I know. Especially when someone who watches a few youtube video's and parrots political talking points as if that makes them an expert on economics tries to correct me when I'm not even close to wrong.

a reply to: Dfairlite

I dont parrot talking points I repeatedly create threads with information detailing the information I base my positions on.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

There's another Youtube video in there from the money GPS. It's probably easier to make fun of youtube videos than it would be to dissect the actual information in there and prove it correct.

Understanding QE and QT is so basic I dont get why you think that makes you important?

I like watching some youtube channels.. so what?

One of my favorites is Peter Schiff. Bet you think hes an idiot dont you?

Hahaha. Anyway... see yeah in the next thread hero.

a reply to: Dfairlite

Also, I just wanted throw this in there...

If the economy was so great in 2018 why did it enter a bear market in Dec. Why did the Fed walk back its stance on interest rate hikes and why is Q1 of 2019 at .03 growth?

You are a damn fool.

a reply to: toysforadults

Understanding QE and QT is so basic I dont get why you think that makes you important?

Ok, so how did QE1 QE2 and QE infinity affect the economy? I'm waiting with baited breath. It's very basic, as you say, so should be easy for you to concisely summarize.

One of my favorites is Peter Schiff. Bet you think hes an idiot dont you?

Peter schiff isn't an idiot, he's the hero of partisan hacks of the opposition party. He's been predicting doom since I can remember. He plays on your desires and fears. It's pretty genius. Because we live in a cyclical economy, once in a while he strikes gold and claims that makes him a genius. Fools everywhere fall for it.

Here's peter schiff predicting a recession by christmas of 2016.

Here's peter schiff predicting a catastrophe worse than 2008 in 2013.

You can go on and on with him. He's like zerohedge, smart, doomporn. Take what he says with a grain of salt.

a reply to: toysforadults

Maybe you need to make the challenge a little easier.

a reply to: toysforadults

*sigh*

First it was "why did the fed reverse course on interest rates??" Now it's "why did the market tap into bear territory????"

This might be long, but I'll explain it to you since you seem to be at least somewhat curious or you wouldn't keep asking.

The stock market:
The stock market is speculative. The election season brought uncertainty and the dems winning the house brought more uncertainty. There were some concerns (unfounded imo) that Q4 would be a disaster because Q2 and Q3 were strong but only because of tariff's moving shipments around. Coupling that with rising interest rates (four increases in 2018) and the market speculated and moved accordingly. It got it wrong and has since corrected. So now I flip this question back on you, if a recession is imminent why did the market leave bear territory and regain 90% of the losses in a two month time period?

The Fed
The new fed chair is attempting to be proactive rather than reactive and has tried to make the market less of a factor in raising rates. Under yellen, if it flinched, she'd turn dovish. Powell did not react this way to market fluctuations. But even he couldn't ignore what was approaching a bear market. So he turned dovish and gave reassurances that he would consider market conditions going forward.

Atlanta Fed
The atlanta fed forecasts are not accurate representations of where the economy is. They come in way high and way low, especially at the beginning of their forecast period (which began a few days ago for Q1). As time goes on it will normalize and get much closer to the consensus. However, even if it were correct it would not indicate a recession. We have had seven quarters of 0.5% or less GDP growth in the last 7.5 years. Three of which were GDP contraction (negative rates).

Take a look at the st louis fed's nowcast it's at 2.3% for Q1. How do you explain that discrepancy and why to you automatically believe the low forecast over the higher one?

a reply to: Dfairlite

Ugh sigh I cant believe I have to explain it to you.

Unreal.

Here's some interesting info for you. Nobody cared about the election.

The Fed had to roll back its policy on raising interest rates in 2019 because our market is almost entirely built on debt both corporate and consumer.

So when the Fed starts QT and cuts off the money supply guess what?

The market pulls back. The Dec bear market was a response to the Fed making debt less available and unserviceable.

Need proof? Look at the slow down in the housing market since the Fed began raising rates.

I cant believe I had to explain that to you.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: toysforadults

Maybe you need to make the challenge a little easier.

Apparently I to make it like a 3rd grade homework assignment cause not a single person actually met the challenge.

a reply to: Dfairlite

Nah Schiff knows the economy well.

When you think the Dems winning a few seats in the house is enough to create a bear market then it's obvious you haven't a clue.

Let me say itagain.. nobody cared about the election.

a reply to: Dfairlite

This is from another one of my favorite sites. Market Watch. The analyst thought the Dems would actually HELP the market stabilize by offering a counter balance to Trump. BAHAHAHAHAH

But Mukherjee and others also argue that a change of control in one or both chambers could be a positive, offering a counterweight to the White House’s trade policies.
With Trump’s signature tax cut and fiscal package already enacted, the midterms “could act as a check on market/economy-unfriendly rhetoric and actions by the Trump administration, particularly as it gets closer to the elections,” Parker said.

www.marketwatch.com...

a reply to: toysforadults

Here's some interesting info for you. Nobody cared about the election.

That was mostly the case before obama. You think it's coincidence that every election year has a selloff going into october? Save 2010, when the republicans had basically a guarantee of wresting control of the house.

The market prices in every major event. To state otherwise is to admit you don't understand markets.

So when the Fed starts QT and cuts off the money supply guess what?

The fed started the unwind 15 months ago.

The market pulls back. The Dec bear market was a response to the Fed making debt less available and unserviceable.

Well, except that markets are forward looking and the unwind of the balance sheet started 15 months before that. Great theory, just not one that makes any sense.

Need proof? Look at the slow down in the housing market since the Fed began raising rates.

Your proof of the bear market having to do with balance sheet reduction is that housing starts cooled when interest rates rose? LOL Again you seem to be confused as to when the reduction began.

When you think the Dems winning a few seats in the house is enough to create a bear market then it's obvious you haven't a clue.

Oh now you're suffering from reading comprehension failures. I explained that uncertainty from the election, coupled with the fed actions and speculation about the impact of the tarriff's on the economy were the driving factors for the markets over reaction in nov/dec.

Nah Schiff knows the economy well.

I never said he didn't. I said he's doom porn and he is. Show me our 2013 and 2016 recessions. Show me the 5,000 dollar an ounce gold. Without those he's batting under 300.

This is from another one of my favorite sites. Market Watch. The analyst thought the Dems would actually HELP the market stabilize by offering a counter balance to Trump

OMG you just provided a link to an article that says goldman sach's was worried about the election. BAHAHAHAHA indeed.

Let me say itagain.. nobody cared about the election.

LMFAO Do you think no one sees through this kind of blatant inconsistency in your argument?

Seriously, you need to think before you post sometimes. I wasn't going to go out of my way to disprove your ridiculous "no one cared about the election" BS. I was going to let it slide with just my original comment that you're out of your gord if you don't think uncertainty affects the market, but you done pwnd yourself.

Kudos!

a reply to: toysforadults

Another reading comprehension failure...? What a surprise.

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: toysforadults

Maybe you need to make the challenge a little easier.

Apparently I to make it like a 3rd grade homework assignment cause not a single person actually met the challenge.

To be fair the vast majority of conservatives are tying themselves up in knots trying to defend their commander in Chief, it's hard to formulate an argument when in a state of crisis.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Which questions have I not provided a rebuttal for?

a reply to: Dfairlite

seekingalpha.com...

The bond market continues to tell us that the Fed should stop raising interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury (TLT) rate has fallen below 3%. Meanwhile, the 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury rate has dropped to just ten basis points and is nearing inversion. Rates on the long-end of the curve are telling the us that the Fed should be nearly finished raising interest and that there should be no rate hikes in 2019.

www.reuters.com...

Traders of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures are, for their part, betting the Fed may halt its rate hikes altogether next year, and could even move to cut borrowing costs.

highlight the important text for you

Contracts tied to the Fed’s target rate rose on Monday, reflecting rising worries about U.S. growth prospects

again I highlight the important text for you

Also adding to worries are signs that inflation expectations are slipping, and that the U.S.-China trade dispute has hit rougher waters. All this has weighed on the U.S. stock market as the S&P Index .SPX hit an 8-month low early Monday.

Contracts expiring in June 2020 are now fetching a higher price than contracts expiring a year earlier, meaning traders are beginning to put some money on a rate cut.

let me yell this out loud for you RATE CUT, IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE MONEY SUPPLY DUE TO A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN

www.cnbc.com...

"For sophisticated bond market investors, no three words invoke more fear and debate than 'inverted yield curve,'"

oh in case you are wondering, I made a thread on this topic when it was happening, yes I'm paying attention

2. The ongoing trade war
After U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last weekend, the White House announced that Trump will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese products to 25 percent for 90 days

but corporate and public debt have nothing to do with it, or the bond market for that matter...

www.pbs.org...

But with interest rates rising and U.S. economic growth expected to slow next year, worries are building from Washington to Wall Street that corporate debt is approaching potentially dangerous levels.

wait, wait, can you repeat that for me?????

“I’ve been more worried about the bond market than the equity market,” said Kirk Hartman, global chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Asset Management. “I think at some point, all the leverage in the system is going to rear its ugly head.”

READ CAREFULLY

www.investopedia.com...

Conversely, higher interest rates mean that consumers don't have as much disposable income and must cut back on spending.

you see how I know EXACTLY what I'm talking about?

people don't have money to spend, investor's know this so when the Fed kept raising rates they new it was going to have the impact it had on the consumer market and housing market oh and auto market that it actually had last year

seekingalpha.com...

"Rising interest rates slow the housing market as people buy payments, not houses, and rising rates mean higher payments."

You see how I back all of my positions with threads providing the data I use to make my assertions?

do you see how in this thread I'm providing sources, even MSM sources that all have links to sources and data and offer analysis that confirms my positions?

give it try you might actually learn something

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Which questions have I not provided a rebuttal for?

your rebuttals are garbage, provide no data and no sources to back your point of view, let me know when you get it together

a reply to: Dfairlite

www.marketwatch.com...

www.barrons.com...

If you think the stock market is going to surge following the midterm elections, then statistics are on your side. But history also suggests that you’ll have to endure a weaker-than-expected market as Election Day nears.

you see, if you read those 2 articles something that people who actually follow (and invest in) the market know is that the market adjust ahead of time

the market is already priced in at mid terms meaning the market is suppose to adjust BEFORE mid terms and gain after

just look at the data before you run your mouth next time

a reply to: toysforadults

Your first three sources are from mid december. That's important because the view at that point was what I laid out in my post which you have conveniently ignored.

let me yell this out loud for you RATE CUT, IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE MONEY SUPPLY DUE TO A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN

But just yesterday you told me that rate increases were going to be leading to mass inflation. It's right here.

Last i checked they made a statement about increasing balance sheets and raising rates

That will result in very high inflation.

You also were under the impression that the fed was increasing balance sheets yesterday in that post. Now today you're insisting they're just now starting to wind them down.

you see how I know EXACTLY what I'm talking about?

No, see above.

Yes, there is a global slowdown, I've never contended otherwise. We just aren't part of it.

Inverted yield curves can be bad. Which one are we talking about? There's only one that's been a reliable indicator and it's OK for now.

You just keep quoting people's opinions. I'm not interested in their opinions. Especially from months ago.

I'm growing bored with your moving the goal posts, repositioning, and ignoring your own post history in favor of your new found knowledge that I have imparted on you over the last two pages.

do you see how in this thread I'm providing sources, even MSM sources that all have links to sources and data and offer analysis that confirms my positions?

Are you impressed with yourself? Good job I guess. You're finally accepting the things I told you over the last two pages. Rising rates stop inflation, the fed is unwinding the balance sheet not expanding it.

But I'm done responding to your posts until you start answering the questions I have posed over the past two pages.