What are the chances of discovering alien life?

a reply to: charlyv

If the ocean was whiskey,
And I was a duck...

I'd say 100%. Next generation telescopes will be able to analyse the atmosphere of suitable exoplanets using high-resolution spectroscopy. Exoplanets with biosignature gas molecules will be given higher priority by programs like SETI so they can concentrate more resources on those planets.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: charlyv

If the ocean was whiskey,
And I was a duck...

HA! Us ducks would certainly not be flying around alot, or probably crashing a lot!

I think the chances of discovering life is good - simple forms of life - within our own solar system.

But as for advanced civilisations, I think that we will only discover them if they want us to. It is looking at the moment as if they do not want to be discovered but who knows?

a reply to: Phage

I'd swim to the bottom and never come up...…...Corb Lund & The Hurtin Albertins. Song title...Rye Whiskey

Well as you are talking about the chances of discovering, I would say extremely low, but will continue to get more likely as the years pass and technology progresses.
The next big step is here - imaging extrasolar planets directly. The composition of the atmospheres may tell us whether intelligent life exists or existed on those planets.

a reply to: R1CK3O

The real question, in my mind at least, is what are the chances of discovering other life in the universe, without actually travelling to places and rummaging around in the dirt manually, and I think the answer to that, is practically none.

I do not think it is likely that any of our telescopy methods are going to be able to resolve enough detail at distance, to be CERTAIN of any discovery of life, even if there were life to discover. For all we know, exo-planets we have already observed, and either found interesting but moved on from, or discounted completely, actually contain life, or used to, or will do. There is absolutely no way to know these things remotely, regardless of how powerful our scopes are, or what they can see in a planets atmosphere from here, and that is not going to change over much, regardless of how advanced our scopes get.

Only learning to travel the space between stars, at a speed which renders distance meaningless, will ever allow us to explore enough of the universe, in enough detail, to actually come to reasonable conclusions about what is and is not present on other worlds.

We can send all the rovers we like to the planets in our own system, and we can launch all the fancy telescopes and scanners we like into orbit, but at the end of the day, there is no replacement for sending explorers to a location, and having them make a base of operations there, from which to operate a serious examination of every cave, crevice, hole, gap between two rocks, every pool of liquid, and every oceanic trench on the face of every world we encounter or discover.

A massive drive to push our propulsion capacity out of the stone age, and into the future, as well as a mob handed approach to exploration, are the only factors which really have any bearing on when we will discover other life in the universe, Reliance on remote methods, passive methods, like waiting for scope data, or for space debris to land here from elsewhere to show life signs elsewhere, is like locking yourself in your house, and expecting to learn anything substantial about an unexplored location on the Earth, that is thousands of miles, thousands and thousands of miles from where you live.

It is simply not realistically going to happen, if our methods are all so hands off. Given also, that there are many more reasons to explore the universe in person, than the potential for life to exist other than ours, there is no really good reason not to push more into getting off this rock more effectively, and further away from it MUCH faster, than we are capable of at the moment.

a reply to: TrueBrit


Then of course there is the possibility that they might come looking for us, if they have the means and inclination to do so.

originally posted by: nOraKat
a reply to: R1CK3O

I don't understand people like you who ignore all the legitimate reports of UFO's (seemingly ET in origin) from credible people like pilots, astronauts, people in military and defense, aerospace, etc. and also several mass sightings.

Tons of witnesses have even come forward together to present their evidence.

If you still don't see it now, then you probably won't believe it even when come up to you and smack you in the face.

This thread is about alien life and it seems the OP is talking intelligent alien life.


Not UFOs.

a reply to: oldcarpy

There is that possibility, but if certain reports from over the years are anything to go by, even if they were to visit, we, the public, would not hear of it in a way that was unquestionable or certain, meaning that whether it happened or not is immaterial, when it comes to proving it to the vast majority of people.

No, the only way that life other than our own in the universe, will ever be discovered in a manner which is not put into massive doubt by skeptics, is (quite rightly to be honest, given everything that has happened with the charlatans in UFOlogy) for it to be discovered as part of an interstellar mission to another star system. Either that, or something visiting here, would have to attempt invasion and take over, one or the other, and I know which I would prefer.

Terrific theme, probably the greatest life sciences revolution of our generation –
Here’s a book foreword I wrote addressing the theme a few years ago
www.jamesoberg.com...

a reply to: TrueBrit


I think that there are too many possibilities as to what might happen and there could be forms of life out there beyond our understanding and power to comprehend.

a reply to: TrueBrit

We must use inference from scientific advances in telescopes and spectroscopy as a starting point.
Throwing all your effort into propulsion technologies would not make sense. Where to actually go and look instead of looking everywhere will be vital to the success or failure of any search (assuming life does exist somewhere out there).

What are the chances of discovering alien life?

100%

Chances of recognizing alien life when it is in front of you is extremely low.

The aliens are most of us. We are universes too.

a reply to: oldcarpy

very, very true and very possible. In the 2+ TRILLION galaxies or more out there in the KNOWN universe, and many who think there may be more I believe life is all over the place, scattered here and there, and some from our own galaxy has visited in the past and continues to this day. I watch most programming on the Science Channel. One of their most interesting shows is "Nasa's Unexplained Files," and at the start there is a guy who talks about what is out there and says, " there could be anything out there, we don't know what lurks in the shadows." Absolutely!

Look at it this way, while the odds for life in the universe are slim there is massive realestate. You shouldnt underestimate just who much realestate there is outthere. EVEN IF we are the only intelligent lifeform in the entire galaxy, our galaxy the milkyway, there are still enough other galaxies out there to GUARANTEE other intelligent life in another galaxy.

And then theres this other thing, life. Once it gets going it wants to keep going. Its all there is to it really. It survives, adapts and flourishes. Even in the cold vacum of space, basic life sits dormant waiting for the right opportunity. There no doubt in my mind that life could have started elswhere can came here later.

And what applies to basic life counts double for intelligent life. Once you reach that stage you'd better live up to your first name. And given enough time they will reach a point where just about everything is in arms reach.

And that is why childern, in the big picture, we are pond scum

originally posted by: Archivalist
Yeah, no. There is evidence, depending on where you set your bar. Whether you're an actual astronomer, chemist, astrophysicist, biologist, or just a "ufology" researcher, there is a lot of supporting evidence in any of those fields.

Zero evidence. Lots of conjecture.

High probability of existence.
Low probability of encounter.
It's not just space/distance
but also time frame.

if we were to discover independently evolved life in our solar system,
the implications would be dire in terms of the great filter

originally posted by: Blue Shift
At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

You know this is not true! Oh, wait, there's your data bias.

For everybody else; the real world probability of ET existing is 0.999999999999999 (99.9999999999999%) sorry, my PC can't do better, in fact it thinks that should be 1 (100%). Y'all understand that probabilities are never 1 or 0 but somewhere in-between, even very close. In this case we have an artifact that is virtually 100% extraterrestrial. Though many will try to argue against it, even use obsolete data to prove it...

Y'all can find my data here.

originally posted by: james1947
In this case we have an artifact that is virtually 100% extraterrestrial. Though many will try to argue against it, even use obsolete data to prove it...

Y'all can find my data here.

Oh, not this old saw again. But consider this. Even assuming that the map is accurate (which, as you say, is still debated) how do you know for sure that the "little people" who allegedly abducted Betty and Barney Hill weren't just flat-out lying? They never specifically said where they were from, and I recall them being quite cagey about it.

Has alien life or alien activity been detected on or near any of the points of the map? What would that even constitute?
To make the jump from "A" (the map) to "B" (aliens), you have to make a whole lot of assumptions that aren't backed up by any evidence at all.