What are the chances of discovering alien life?

At this point, the odds are fifty-fifty. There either is alien life, or there isn't. That's because we: 1. Have no idea how life arises or appears or whatever out of a pile of non-living chemicals. 2. Have no idea how many factors there are that will either allow life to manifest and thrive, or kill it. At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

Do you really believe that with your whole heart and soul.

I mean c'mon, universe ever expanding at the speed of light, the maths that we are alone and the only intelligent life in the universe is really stacked against us.

I was expecting a lot of replies but not one like this, I'm guessing your either a religious nut or incredibly nieve or arrogant to think like that?

originally posted by: R1CK3O
Do you really believe that with your whole heart and soul.

I mean c'mon, universe ever expanding at the speed of light, the maths that we are alone and the only intelligent life in the universe is really stacked against us.

I was expecting a lot of replies but not one like this, I'm guessing your either a religious nut or incredibly nieve or arrogant to think like that?

Well, thanks for the insults.

But the fact that we haven't discovered any ET life of any kind is an actual fact. If we had, you probably would have heard about it in the news.

And again, since we don't know how life came to be on this planet, how can you just assume that any planet with the right chemical and temperature conditions is going to magically sprout life? How does that work in your mind? Something just happens? What? What happens? Tell me.

I'll use my box analogy again. Say you had a box and in it you discover a marble. You have no idea how it got there, but there it is. Then you go into a room where there are a billion boxes just like the one you have. Using statistics, how many other boxes do you think you would have to look into before you found another marble? 100? 100,000? 10,000,000? Or do you think there will be marbles in all of them? See? You don't know. Because you don't know the other parameters, you can't even guess about other marbles. There may very well only be the one.

There are singular things in the universe, you know. Unless you're a twin, you're a singular thing in an entire universe full of things. How many people do you expect would have to be born before there is another "you" born?

Maybe there is other life out there. On the other hand, maybe there isn't. Maybe life is such an incredible fluke that it only happened once, just like there was only one of you born ever. Hence my 50/50 guess.

originally posted by: Blue Shift
At this point, the odds are fifty-fifty. There either is alien life, or there isn't. That's because we:

1. Have no idea how life arises or appears or whatever out of a pile of non-living chemicals.
2. Have no idea how many factors there are that will either allow life to manifest and thrive, or kill it.

At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

We've got some ideas about #1. Amino acids can form in space and in water. Star formation and stellar fusion creates a wide variety of chemicals like carbon, oxygen, water and nitrogen. Amino acids can string together naturally to form RNA strands. There are some combinations which can self-replicate. Each collects a matching opposite, then they will split up in half or in snippets. Other combinations of elements form crystals - the basis for coral reefs and bones. Cellulose helps form plants.

For us to find simple life, we'll have to go out to other planets to find it.

For us to find intelligent life, they might have found us already, don't want to be found or don't know we're here.

a reply to: R1CK3O

"What are the chances of discovering alien life?"

Excellent given enough time, but by then they will probably be long gone.

Chances are given the range and scope of the universe, any sentient alien race would only employ the use of radio waves for communication purpose for a very short time before devising some other means of communication that supersedes relativity thus would be beyond our current ability to detect.

It is 100% if the materials found in some Martian meteorites are authentic bacteria. So many scientists battling it out with that one. I think it is one of the most profound of mysteries.

originally posted by: Blue Shift
At this point, the odds are fifty-fifty. There either is alien life, or there isn't. That's because we:

1. Have no idea how life arises or appears or whatever out of a pile of non-living chemicals.
2. Have no idea how many factors there are that will either allow life to manifest and thrive, or kill it.

At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

We also might not even know we found evidence of life when we do find it. That's why we search for "life as we know it". We might know what the biological signs of "life as we DON'T know it" and thus not know how to test for that life.

For example, the James Webb Space Telescope may be able to analyze the spectrum of an atmosphere of an exoplanet and find that there is an lack of, say for example, the gas acetylene in relation to the amount of hydrogen and methane. That is, we know what the natural balances of those gases might be, but we might not understand an imbalance.

That imbalance might be due to a weird microbe that feeds of hydrogen and acetylene, but that would be "life as we don't know it", and since we have no experience with knowing how those life processes work we might not be able to confirm through testing that the imbalance is caused by life, or maybe something natural.

The bottom line is that "life as we DON'T know it" might be very difficult to confirm, even if we think we might have found signs of it.

a reply to: Soylent Green Is People

"It's life, Jim, but not as we know it, not as we know it, not as we know it."

Haven't they already found that some bacteria have been found to survive in space?

I believe there is all kinds of life in space. We just don't understand it yet.

I'm of two minds as far as anything equal or superior to us. Either they exist, and know about us, and want nothing to do with us, or they existed, but may be long gone, having lived way before us.

I have always wished to know. In my lifetime.

a reply to: R1CK3O

I don't understand people like you who ignore all the legitimate reports of UFO's (seemingly ET in origin) from credible people like pilots, astronauts, people in military and defense, aerospace, etc. and also several mass sightings.

Tons of witnesses have even come forward together to present their evidence.

If you still don't see it now, then you probably won't believe it even when come up to you and smack you in the face.

a reply to: chiefsmom

Think something like the Tardigrades/water bears may fit the bill as to be able to survive the rigors of Space.

en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: R1CK3O

At this point, the odds are fifty-fifty. There either is alien life, or there isn't. That's because we: 1. Have no idea how life arises or appears or whatever out of a pile of non-living chemicals. 2. Have no idea how many factors there are that will either allow life to manifest and thrive, or kill it. At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

Do you really believe that with your whole heart and soul.

I mean c'mon, universe ever expanding at the speed of light, the maths that we are alone and the only intelligent life in the universe is really stacked against us.

I was expecting a lot of replies but not one like this, I'm guessing your either a religious nut or incredibly nieve or arrogant to think like that?

Your saying why life is mathematically likely. Blue Shift is saying why we have no hard evidence of life yet.

You are both right, in as much as life is likely given the scale and scope of the universe, but until we actually find hard evidence of that life, it will only remain "likely" and nothing more than that.


Take for example the idea that other stars had planets around them. It seemed very likely to science that there were in fact other planets around other stars (exoplanets). it was a sound hypothesis. However, prior to 1995 science could not say (and should not have said) that planets 100% did exist. That's because they never had any hard evidence for the existence of exoplanets until the first one was found in 1995.

But does the fact that they waited for confirmation of a planet mean that science thought it was unlikely that any exoplanets existed until they confirmed one? Not at all. Science still believed it was a very likely hypothesis, but science could not and should not say that "other planets 100% do exist" until they actually had hard evidence.


I think almost all scientists would tell you that they personally feel other life certainly exists. However, they would also tell you that in their professional opinion, it is unknown if other life is a fact -- or at least they should be of that professional opinion if they were good scientists. A good scientist should not let what they "think might be true" trump hard evidence.

*deleted by MS - format

originally posted by: R1CK3O
Do you really believe that with your whole heart and soul.

I mean c'mon, universe ever expanding at the speed of light, the maths that we are alone and the only intelligent life in the universe is really stacked against us.

I was expecting a lot of replies but not one like this, I'm guessing your either a religious nut or incredibly nieve or arrogant to think like that?

Try to be open minded.

Here's a TED talk by a guy who saw a UFO when he was 8 years old that defied the laws of physics.

He grew up to be an astronomer and he has given a lot of thought to all the hurdles that need to be crossed for what happened on earth to happen elsewhere. He thinks some people might be overestimating the math. I think it's entirely possible the universe is full of life, in fact there could be life on Mars right now surviving on liquid water below the surface, but it most likely wouldn't be intelligent life, which this speaker defines as a species capable of contemplating sending a probe to another star system (like the breakthrough starshot project). So life elsewhere doesn't automatically imply intelligent life elsewhere.

He's definitely not any kind of religious nut, and he's obviously given this a lot of thought, perhaps more than you have. Try to keep an open mind and listen to what he says.

Where are all the aliens? | Stephen Webb

Published on Aug 16, 2018

The universe is incredibly old, astoundingly vast and populated by trillions of planets -- so where are all the aliens? Astronomer Stephen Webb has an explanation: we're alone in the universe. In a mind-expanding talk, he spells out the remarkable barriers a planet would need to clear in order to host an extraterrestrial civilization -- and makes a case for the beauty of our potential cosmic loneliness. "The silence of the universe is shouting, 'We're the creatures who got lucky,'" Webb says.

If the universe was full of sugar water, then it would also be full of hummingbirds.

Life is everywhere. We are on the verge of discovering that.

originally posted by: Blue Shift
At this point, the odds are fifty-fifty. There either is alien life, or there isn't. That's because we:

1. Have no idea how life arises or appears or whatever out of a pile of non-living chemicals.
2. Have no idea how many factors there are that will either allow life to manifest and thrive, or kill it.

At the moment, there is absolutely zero evidence that there is life anywhere else in the universe other than right here on Earth.

"zero" evidence

Yeah, no. There is evidence, depending on where you set your bar. Whether you're an actual astronomer, chemist, astrophysicist, biologist, or just a "ufology" researcher, there is a lot of supporting evidence in any of those fields.

a reply to: R1CK3O

Don't expect any "announcement". No one speaks for the world that would be acceptable by all. We've ignored evidence so far...

Since we are so low on a planetary development level comparatively and so high on others...how would we know it if we find it...or if it's already found us?

Some of it is/has been here already now...we just don't know how to recognize it. I believe that 1,000%.

I think we are wrong to look for crafts and vehicles, propulsion methods...and creatures with arms and legs, eyes, brains etc.

Not knowing about things we wouldn't recognize yet...they could be thought, dimensional waves, invisible particles.

We haven't a clue..we are too young of a life form on this planet...and in some cases...way too developed to be recognized by lesser species elsewhere as well, you think?

They are here now...always were...IMO.
Best, MS

*Read this:
[url=http://www.abovetopsecret.com.../url]

I don't understand people like you who ignore all the legitimate reports of UFO's (seemingly ET in origin) from credible people like pilots, astronauts, people in military and defense, aerospace, etc. and also several mass sightings. Tons of witnesses have even come forward together to present their evidence. If you still don't see it now, then you probably won't believe it even when come up to you and smack you in the face.

You didn't even bother to read my post properly then.

I said lets leave all that stuff at the door for a second, you say you can't understand 'people like me' and then went on to describe the complete opposite of me.

I do believe all that stuff, I'm talking hypothetically, let's just say for a minute we're all around and the government are right in their official explanation, then what?

You're preaching to the converted dude.

originally posted by: R1CK3O
Ok.

So for a second put aside personal opinions and theories and leave conspiracies at the door. I believe in ETS and that they are/have been visiting Earth but let's stay in the realm of the known and confirmed for a second.

It seems to me that the last few decades especially from 1990-2010 we came on leaps and bounds with how far technology came along, the last 10 years though have been rather slow and we seem to be slowing down significantly, what seemed like a mad rush in technological advancements that seemed never-ending, seems to be considerably dwindling now, for example look how far smartphones came from the first iphone to now, computers and that tech.

Anyway, I digress, with the advancement of technology and science and the universe ever expanding, do people on here feel we'll ever publically hear that life on another planet has been found, do you think we'll ever develop the tools to make contact or receive contact?

If so, do you feel we're on the brink of this kind of discovery/contact or do you think it will not be in our lifetime?

I kind of hope for the day when even conspiracy can not hide the truth, where it has to be announced to the whole wide world but with seeing how technology and science seems to be slowing down (not to a stop, I understand that there's still advancement it just seems to be at a slower rate) I'm sceptical as to whether or not that discovery/announcement for the whole world will come in my lifetime.

I agree about your points on technology but I also think that you’re referencing consumer tech which hasn’t necessarily slowed but some of the big changes have already happened. We also got used to tech so new things don’t seem quite as earth shattering as they once did - it would take something seriously advanced to make people sit back and go “whoa!” A thinner TV isnt going to do that. A wall that looks like a wall but with the push of a button turns into a crystal clear picture on the wall in the size of your choosing would be next level stuff - as an example.

In regards to finding alien life I believe it exists if nothing else based on mathematical probability - although the total possible number of habitable planets is huge many of them are likely very far away and we’d be hard pressed to find them - doesn’t mean they aren’t out there.

It’s also pretty mind blowing that per a quick Google there are about 8.7 million species on earth but only 1 has evolved far enough to be having this discussion.... which means that intelligent life is rare and it would make sense that’s the case on other planets.

Here’s another take though that I cooked up when thinking about this - which may have been stated previously but I haven’t read it....

Let’s assume for a moment that humans were around when the dinosaurs roamed the earth. If we had our current technology, and there were enough dinosaurs, we’d still be dealing with some deadly dinosaur problems given they are large, fast and hard to stop meat eaters. One day, when our tech got more advanced, we decided “I’m out” because we’re tired of that pesky T. rex problem and want to go somewhere they aren’t a problem. Seems reasonable.

So, do you go from one earth like planet to another? That seems reasonable. BUT, that planet brings with it a whole new set of threats (large creatures/small creatures/parasites/etc.). Suddenly, that doesn’t sound so appealing - maybe the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t... so then what?

You find a planet where you can live underground that either can support life or close to it on the surface and you know can support you underground. Since living about ground has been a challenge (remember that dinosaur equivalent problem) and you can’t just nuke all of them without destroying you planet - you realize subterranean living actually solves most of your problems. Go to the surface on occasion, maybe travel somewhere else for fun, but otherwise - stay underground. It also leaves you fairly well protected against the whole “alien” invasion scenario since you’re fortified in a planet - it’s a win/win/win.

So, you go to Mars and live underground

So, I’ll coin it the Subteranean Sustainabability Hypothesis - which postulates that if you want to find intelligent that can travel amongst the stars you’d want to look at “quasi” or “maybe” life supporting planets in a quiet corner of the universe - not just earth-like planets. This is plausible as we know of several celestial bodies that have underground water sources that could help sustain life, keep the attention off of you and have little to no surface level threats to contend with.

As I think about that more it passes the initial logic tests - who knows!

originally posted by: charlyv
If the universe was full of sugar water, then it would also be full of hummingbirds.

Life is everywhere. We are on the verge of discovering that.

I tend to believe you’re right!

I think it is closer to zero.