China at risk of loosing its trade with U.S

a reply to: MrZeal

Here's an article on how the President can actually limit trade without going through Congress (HERE). So it would be possible for him to do this to an extent. However, it would be suicidal for him to try to actually "stop all trade with China", as you put it.

China is our single largest import partner, with the US buying almost twice as much from China than from our #2 import partner Canada. The European Union is our #2 import partner if looked at it as a single seller, and we still buy more goods from China than from the entire EU. China is also the 3rd largest purchaser of US goods (4th when counting the entire EU as a single buyer), meaning a halt in trade would instantly hurt American businesses that export products.

We're talking more than $100 billion a year in exports and almost half a trillion dollars in imports per year (HERE). Do you really think the multinationals, hedge funds, & institutional investors that are behind these companies (like Goldman Sachs, Berkshire Hathaway, and Blackstone) will risk losing this kind of money over Trump's whims? As for the questions:

Do you think Donald Trump is making the right decision?

If he seriously tried, he'd be a bigger fool than I already think he is. So many American jobs would be hurt by that & consumer prices would skyrocket. And that's assuming China didn't retaliate by getting its allies in the region to reduce or stop trading with the US (or by freezing the accounts and properties of US companies that are in China right now). People have short memories, but you should really look into the Arab Oil Embargo in the 1970s to see just how devastating a real trade war could be.

If this does take place, what effect will it have on the global economy?

Bye bye petrodollar & bye bye American hegemony. If other countries and the institutional investors & multinationals within them believe that the US can't be trusted with its global business contracts, we're finished as both the most important reserve currency and as the "Leader of the Free World".

China is already doing a lot of trade with its neighbors in local currencies instead of in USD, but now I'd imagine they'd dump the goods that were previously headed to the US into other markets. That means American exporters would not only lose their biggest market (China) but they would now have to compete against an aggressively low priced flood of Chinese goods in markets they used to do well in. And don't forget that China has a massive stockpile of US debt and a lot of investments here, all of which can also be used as "weapons" in any trade war.

In January of this year, China's President already gave a speech in Davos at the World Economic Forum where he both warned against trade wars and said China would continue promoting free trade. This kind of trade war would basically be handing over to China every single country that still pursues free trade. (Here's the transcript in English).

What will happen between the U.S and China, if this does happen?

I've already mentioned this in other answers. However, I think that Congress would override him before it got this far. In fact, I think his own family would override him before it got this far, since some of their companies make their goods in China, buy steel from China, etc.

a reply to: Revolution9

Hey Revolution9,

You're right, I have been thinking about how he could have gotten so many nukes into his own hands with no support?


Duh...

He has friends behind his back... but who

Who would support a nutter head like him?

Kind regards,
MrZeal

a reply to: MrZeal

If a nuke war does go hot dont bother trying to survive it. Drive straight for the nearest soon to be ground zero.

originally posted by: Domo1
a reply to: Lagomorphe

Truth hurts mate?

Nope.

Think I confused you with someone else too after going through some of your posts. Apologies.

No probs pal... I respect and understand the differing opinions of our USA cousins.

Warmest

Lags

originally posted by: rockintitz
a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

This would be a sanction. Sanctions are used in lieu of all out war.

Remind me, is it more fear we need?

Depends on who you ask, sanctions are an act of war, just not the type of war that involves bombs.

Remind me again, is it more war we need ?

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss
a reply to: MrZeal

If a nuke war does go hot dont bother trying to survive it. Drive straight for the nearest soon to be ground zero.

Lol, Sound advice!

North Korea should not be able to destabilize the world


a coordinated effort would put them in check

a reply to: MrZeal

This would hurt the US far more than it would hurt China...

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: MrZeal

This would hurt the US far more than it would hurt China...

It really will not. The Western financial markets would quickly adjust. The UK will just have to postpone exit from EU for a while. China has only recently entered as a player. The West knows how to work and does work and made itself prominent without China investments. We are so resilient we can thrive even without China. Bigger is not always better, believe it. Many in the West actually feel that Chinese business is not even an economically healthy thing to be doing. It may be more of a drain on the actual people in fact and only of benefit to the 1%. It would not be hard to sell exit from Chinese business to the people.

Of course we would wobble for a while, but by the power of Grey Skull, it's no big problem Skeletor.

I want to make it clear that I totally respect China. I like the Chinese people. I am happy we are trading and slowly breaking down barriers. I wish the same could happen with Russia, too. Yet we have to be firm about some things and responding positively to threats and military demands as China are suggesting is like the first stroke of a razor on one's arm, submitting to the New Military "Massah" and dominant world super power. That's how crazy I think North Korea and China are being. China are crazy for using this as a bargaining tool. They are showing their true colors and that after all we have done for them economy wise; it is tantamount to betrayal!

Loose of a few shares for a time; a weaker financial market always leaves a vacuum to be filled by nearer localities any how. It's no great loss and no problem to sell this to the public. They know all about North Korea. They have been kept very well informed, unlike the North Korean people have been by Mizz "Propaganda" Pink Lady.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: Arnie123
People buy chinese because its cheap

People ACT like there isn't anything manufactured here in the US, simply false as we do, just little of and at a price people don't like to pay.

Once we kicked the chinese to the curb, yeah, it'll suck for a bit. However, maybe its needed, a good slap of national reality, to light the fires of progress once again. Like a mother with the best of intentions back of the head slap.

This is it folks, this is why Americans are viewed as warmongering clowns, comments like this one quoted above...

Nothing like a bitchslap to set one on the straight and narrow...

Stagnation is a stinky bed fellow. I see nothing wrong with a "jolt" to get the system going again. Perhaps its because of our warmongering nature that we all live like kings and queens, even those on welfare. Perhaps a template of which the chinese have adopted, for they want the same thing, if not more, ideologically as well.

And ?
Plenty of other countries for china to do business with .

Sorry america your not the only market out there .

a reply to: enlightenedservant

Yeah, you're just scared. You won't be able to buy your cheap walmart products.

Its been said that the US economy will be tough, but as a nation, we will endure and prosper, we've done it before, we'll do it again.

Its about ideologies as well, getting up to work and earning it.

Free trade? china? don't make me laugh, when we're attached to ONE nation as a sole trading partner, WITH a trade deficient, THINGS have to change.

The fear mongering is hillarious and just goes to show you just how many fools got latched onto the chinese tit of cheap product and scream doom porn when that trade is threatened.

I "try" my best to buy local and American, which isn't all that hard at all in San Antonio, TX.

Whether some of you like it or not, want to hear it or not, I'm an American and father, as such, I work for my family and country. You protect and defend your house. Anything to ensure American success and its future is the core of my being, as it should for ALL patriotic Americans.

I see one path for the safety of my family, an American lead path.

Millions exist with that same mentality as well, I'm sure of it. For as long as ONE person tries to make a difference, there will always be hope and salvation.

originally posted by: VengefulGhost
And ?
Plenty of other countries for china to do business with .

Sorry america your not the only market out there .

Nope, just the biggest. We're also an energy net exporter and a country sitting on untapped reserves, not to mention a large military. Many countries do business with the US and plenty who would want to pick up the slack as well.

China is dependent off global trade, so when cut off, their main cash flow goes bottom up. The few nations who also do business with them is not sufficient in regards to that.

originally posted by: Lagomorphe
Most Americans don't give a sh"" as long as they have cheap prices...

Sad.

Warmest regards

Lags

a reply to: MrZeal

Do most folks in your country look for expensive things in place of cheaper alternatives? Just enjoy pissing away money? I'm curious.

a reply to: MrZeal

The Chinese would invade our country and install a more communist friendly ideology in our government.

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

People with young children never feel the way you do.

originally posted by: Nexttimemaybe
It would be tough on China too but not so much, I'm sure they can find alternative buyers for less profit.

They could not, we are both each other's largest trading partners, it would damage both economies.

originally posted by: dfnj2015
The Chinese would invade our country and install a more communist friendly ideology in our government.

How would they do that? They walking or swimming here?

a reply to: MrZeal


Sigh, Trump is a negotiator. Period.

One takes the toughest position-highest price asked for- then negotiates for the actual desired result. In Trump's case, as the U.S. representative, he's made it very clear that the goal is a leveler playing field. That the U.S. will rebound over time in that scenario and will recover a good portion of previous affluence.

China's economy collapses without U.S. purchases. (It may collapse anyways as they've leveraged their internal loans based of a 15% annual growth of their GDP!)

The U.S. economy, as well as the Eurozone, also collapses if China's goes down. There are too interrelated. A three legged chair. One leg goes, down goes the chair.

Your thread, therefore, is hyperbole, at least from an economic view.

Politically? A whole different ballgame. NK is the line in the sand-along with Iran- when it comes to nuclear proliferation. It stops now or we are all screwed. Simple.

My personal view is it NK and Iran need to be stopped. What price that will entail is unknown and risky, to be sure. To allow them, and therefore others, to continue is beyond risky. It will be fatal. To all of us.

The risk is justified.

a reply to: Arnie123



Yeah, because your attempts to "buy local & American" are going to offset more than half a trillion USD's worth of trade every year. As if those "American" companies you support aren't buying their goods, equipment, maintenance supplies, and components from China...

Oh & you can save the fake patriotic spiel. If you really were so "Pro-America", you wouldn't want a trade war with our biggest overall trade partner. The price increases for your fellow Americans, the supply shortages throughout the country, and the depleted exports for American businesses would be enough to realize how stupid & harmful this proposal would be.