Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

High pressure to the north-east of Florida and extending out eastwards across the Atlantic was what helped Irma move along the north coasts of the islands already hit by Irma. Currently Irma is in a 'slow' mode and is only moving northwards at a snail pace.

Barring any resistance from other systems, hurricanes (above the equator line) will always move north due to their anti-clockwise circulation, and the fact that the high pressure system that blocked Irma's northwards movement is now dissipating (this is analogous to opening a gate), and with the jet stream loop also gone allows Irma to make her north turn up the western-side of Florida.

Obviously, as Irma turns north she will ingest some of the heat from the eastern edge of the Gulf and regain strength, and so will probably move up the western-side of Florida as a cat 4 hurricane with the right-hand side of Irma (where the strongest winds blow) hammering the western-side of Florida driving surges inland, with particular emphasis on the high tide at around 17:30 in the afternoon to watch out for.

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss
Whether or not there is a God, I hope you will be ok.

The only thing you can do is to make sure you are keeping safe, prepped and don't do anything stupid that puts you at risk. Your safety and well being is more important.

You will make it

Live weather channel - key west and florida

a reply to: violet

Glad your aunt & uncle are in a safe place. I can't imagine having to worry about your home being gone and how do you choose what to take out if it?

Apparently, all they took was a couple suitcases of clothes, photo albums and some other sentimental things... and of course lots of food, bottled water, blankets, etc. Basically whatever they could fit into their car, which wasn't much.

The rest is now left in mother nature's hands.

They own a large pipeline company that sits right on the coast just outside of Bradenton, so I think it's safe to say there won't be much left of the company buildings other than rubble after Irma gets done with it. Their home is a bit further inland so it might fair a bit better, although it does sit only a handful of feet above sea level...

Doesn't matter though.

They're safe where they are, which is all that really matters when you boil it down.

My sister lives in Melbourne with her husband and daughter. Her other daughter is married and lives in Largo on the west side of the Tampa / St Petersburg peninsula. They thought the storm was going to come up the east side so my one niece decided to go to her sisters house in Largo to be away from the worst of it.
Now both of them are hunkered down where it's probably going to be the worst.
My niece, the older married one just built her house three years ago and it's all up to code for hurricanes and my sister said they are far enough away from the water but I'm going to be very nervous today until I know they are safe and out of harms way.
My sister also said the reason they didn't leave was because the highway had been closed at noon yesterday.
Who closes a highway when there's an approaching storm and only one way out? Late last night I saw Tampas mayor say the roads were open but my nieces had already decided to stay.

I think it's going to end up in the panhandle. It's going to rewrite everything about predicting hurricanes. Thry will learn things from this storm season

500 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Irma has made its long-awaited turn, with the initial motion now
325/7. For the next 36-48 h, the cyclone will be steered generally
north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed between a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-
to upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states and the northern Gulf
of Mexico. After that, the system should turn northwestward and
then move somewhat erratically near the end of its life as it merges
with the low
...
Given current trends, some additional strengthening could occur
during the next several hours. However, vertical wind shear is
increasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong
within 24 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause at
least a steady weakening from 12-36 h. The new intensity forecast
is slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those
times, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its
closest approach to the Tampa Bay area.

www.wunderground.com...

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).

A turn toward the north-
northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected later today,
with that motion continuing through Monday.

On the forecast track,
the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys in the next
few hours, then move near or over the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves through the
Florida Keys and and near the west coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

It looks the eye will miss Key West to the east...on radar it looks like they may barely get the eyewall. The eye will pass over Sugarloaf, Cudjoe, and Big Pine(plus some other smaller keys).

The 7 mile bridge will miss the eye, but is taking a beating in the eyewall. If the bridge is damaged, the lower Keys will only be accessable by boat.

The storm only has a few more hours to strengthen before windshear and dry air will hit the system. While 130mph winds is bad, it could have been worse.

I know most of the boats in the mooring field and anchorages have broken free, probably 100+ boats have been lost.

It was windy here the other day.

Why does America have to tell the world that how hard they are doing it with a bit of wind?

Bomb it into submission americans....

a reply to: jrod

A little wobble to the west and Key West is now getting the eye wall. Key West to Marathon are getting the worst of it.

Thoughts and prayers for all in the path of Irma...just heard already millions are without power.

Wow, historic storms Harvey and Irma.

Thoughts and prayers for all in harm's way, and for all who will have to deal with the aftermath.

Thought I'd check in at least while I still have power. Since I have lived here the last couple years just a little north of Lake Okeechobee I have noticed we are in some strange little pocket.
I've seen the summer storms slam around us and we might just get a little drizzle here being only 10 miles north. I have no idea why, but it seems to be happening now as well. Just little squalls passing quickly. Quite frankly, I'll take it whatever causes this little pocket.

What was suppose to be bad later tonight has now become later this afternoon until a little after sunset. I like that better since it is still light out.

Wil check in later if I can

a reply to: violet

I wanted to thank you for this thread and all of the members providing updates. I hope for the best possible outcome with the least damage possible and no loss of life.

I have recently, finally, heard from my brother and although he is more inland (Pasco County, a little east of 19) I was concerned. He thought of evacuating (he is in a mobile home on lots of acreage with pets) but, with the gas situation and traffic etc he decided to hunker down. We've joked about him having a boat at least.

His wife died a little over 2 years ago and I think that could have some bearing on his not leaving. He has a tenant (also in a mobile home) on his property who has evacuated to a shelter with her children.

If any of you in Florida see a long hair biker type floating in a boat with dogs and cats (likely drinking cheap beer!) tell him his sissy says stay safe!

It looks like Key West just missed the worst of Irma. I really hope this does not give my idiot friends who stayed a false sense of security the next time a major storm is approaching.

Sugarloaf to Big Pine appears to have gotten the worse. The 7 mile bridge is still in the eyewall and it seems like the SE quadrant is strengthening as it passes over the bridge. I know Ivan washed out a good portion of I-10 over the bay, I am very concerned about the 7 mile bridge. It is very exposed to the ocean and is experiencing the worst of Irma.


Update: official landfall was at Cudjoe Key.

IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

a reply to: jrod

It looks like Key West just missed the worst of Irma. I really hope this does not give my idiot friends who stayed a false sense of security the next time a major storm is approaching.

Even though my friends an family aren't quite that far South, I understand the concern. The condominium complex that I am doing side work with halted my progress because they needed all units on line in case of evacuees. I had access to a couple for my people if needed, that was very generous of the manager. It wouldn't have been safe for anyone to stay in them with the decks ripped off of the back/construction debris is the reason for the delay.
Anyway, I suppose what really concerns me is lack of emergency personnel being able to respond to those who stayed behind if something truly dire were to happen to them.

originally posted by: Forensick
It was windy here the other day.

Why does America have to tell the world that how hard they are doing it with a bit of wind?

Bomb it into submission americans....

Awesome, it was windy where you are the other day.

Which hurricane was that?
How many people died in those winds?
How much damage was done by it?

My guess is you can't answer any of that so ....

a reply to: onehuman

Maybe you have some sort of Cone of Tranquility where you live.....some geographic something that makes the worst weather miss you. And it seems the worst weather we get has to come from a certain direction.

I don't wanna jinx either you or me....we seem to have one of those where we live.

Jeff Piotrowski live on Marco Island. He's driving around showing the weather.