Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

Part might be that the US has no control of warning about a past earthquake in Mexico but can keep up info on a hurricane's future landfall in the US.

I hope everyone gets out of the way of this one.

Right now, I'm really thankful husband didn't get transferred with new job. We'd be trying to get established in new place and getting ready for first hurricane all at once.

a reply to: Diabolical1972

If they put a plant there without engineering it to withstand what's coming, they were idiots - past tense because it wasn't anyone recently who put it there.

The big issue is keeping power to those plants, and you would think any disaster plan has to include several ways this can be done.

a reply to: ketsuko

That's why their saying Nuclear. Storm surge is going to hit that Nuclear plant and the winds are going to spread the Nuclear waste material.

Something is concerning me about the coverage of this hurricane. They keep harping on storm surge as the largest threat, but I'm going to posit that they are off-center. I believe the largest threat that will posed by Irma is the wind, NOT the surge...I think they are making preparations to counter a threat that wont be the largest threat posed by this storm. Flying buildings are going to kill people.

Just got in from a whole day of errands, and saw the NHC track shifted west. I haven't had an icy chill run up my spine like this since Charley, and I live way the hell out of harm's way with 4 states between me and Florida now.

I posted that I bet on a Charley or Katrina-like track up the west coast, but this really was not a bet I wanted to win. Neither coast deserves this level of beat-down, no matter how screwed up the state is.

Storm surge usually does the most serious damage

A particularly deadly and destructive storm surge, estimated to be greater than 30 feet in some areas, crashed onto the Gulf Coast as Hurricane Katrina roared ashore August 29, 2005, near Buras-Triumph, La. Catastrophic damage was done to more than 100 miles of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline. The storm is blamed for more than 2,000 deaths and caused more than $115 billion dollars in damage, making it the costliest disaster in U.S. history.

Comparisons have been made between Katrina and Hurricane Camille, which made landfall on August 17, 1969. Camille came ashore near Pass Christian, Miss., bringing with it a dome of water approaching 25 feet high.

Nearly every building within a half-mile of the shoreline was washed-away. More than 170 deaths are attributed to the storm, most of which are blamed on the storm surge.

weather.weatherbug.com...

a reply to: onehuman
Just dodged a bullet, I hope. Got called out at 10:30 last night. I didn't get home to 4am. Grabbed 2 hours of sleep and was out the door again.

I am exhausted. Thought I would be able to take a nap, and I just got called in again. I got a diversion, because I covered back-up last night and ended up doing primary. My primary call was over a 4pm so I should not get the first call.

Praying the phone does not ring again anytime soon. I guess the rules are, if the bad guys don't sleep then I am not supposed to sleep either.

Onehuman you are special. Thank you so much for caring about an old fart ATSer.

a reply to: ketsuko

The Turkey Creek nuclear plant is a concern. It has plenty of issues without a major hurricane. It is an old plant that needs to be completely updated or decommisioned imho. Hopefully the surge will not cause a catastrophic failure.

I know of many people riding the storm out in the keys. This will be the worst storm since 1935 if nothing changes.

The NHC is forecasting a cat 5 over the keys now as of the 5pm advisory. Thst is unprecedented.

a reply to: violet

Just dropping this vid off as it has a lot of info about whats up in Florida

Latest Uodate for Irma

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8

Status Category 4
Location: 22.1°N 76.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

NHC

New NHC update. Irma is moving to the west of guidance and they no longer expect the storm to weaken prior to landfall. They're actually forecasting strengthening.

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion

INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH

Graphic using the new points:

originally posted by: alphabetaone
Something is concerning me about the coverage of this hurricane. They keep harping on storm surge as the largest threat, but I'm going to posit that they are off-center. I believe the largest threat that will posed by Irma is the wind, NOT the surge...I think they are making preparations to counter a threat that wont be the largest threat posed by this storm. Flying buildings are going to kill people.

Yes they do focus too much on storm surge . I suppose it's because most deaths were caused from that in the past. Flying debris kills. Downed power lines electrocute those wading in the floods.

This is the worst scenario for Florida.

Their west coast is much more vulnerable than their east coast. The eye appears like it will go right over their southern west coast, then make a B line right up the center of the state, which can't handle it either. It's really the south west coast which has the strong building equipped for this.

a reply to: ProphetZoroaster

Yes it might strengthen and even at a Cat 4 it is a very high end of the cat 4 scale.

a reply to: ProphetZoroaster

Am I reading the charts correctly?

Could potentially be a 20-30 ft surge in Western Florida?

Yes they do focus too much on storm surge .

I suppose you've rode thru a few hurricane.

While Miami could still get hit full force and no one there should relax, the greatest danger now appears to be SWFL. Naples, Ft. Meyers, Cape Coral etc. Potential significant wind damage in Tampa Bay as well as surge if that's a direct eye hit there as well.

SW Florida is extremely vulnerable to storm surge, unlike SE Florida. I am using Cat 5 maps both because the NHC now expects it to be at least a low-end 5 at landfall and because Irma is gigantic and we know how that works from Katrina and Ike.