North Atlantic Hurricane Watch 2017

And we now have Invest 91L getting some attention.

Right now they are giving it a 50% chance of development.

weather.com...

a reply to: crappiekat

Our long range weather models which can see into the future several weeks with significant accuracy are predicting a mountain range ridge pattern over the east coast of the US.

That would mean a track into the Gulf of Mexico for 91L.

a reply to: Cauliflower

Well lets hope it doesn't develop into something big.

N.O. has got some serious pump issues right now.
www.wwltv.com...

a reply to: crappiekat

May depend on the dust forecast.

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu...

a reply to: Cauliflower

That's a cool link. Thx.

We are watching for earthquakes in that area on the spectrographs.

There is a lot of wind in that area of Cape Verde.

Found this in another thread. Thought I would drop it here.
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

a reply to: crappiekat

Moisture plume ahead of the western circulation is overriding the SAL.
Bad situation in N.O., so if the two circulations compete for moisture, I don't mind,...

a reply to: crappiekat

That big wave that became 91L has nonsplit into 2 invests, so now we have 92L also.

Next week could get interesting.

Since we are now in the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, if you live in an at risk area you shoukd have a plan and emergency supplies already.

I've been through several hurricanes and when a watch is issued, stores become a madhouse and vital items quickly sell out.

a reply to: Cauliflower

Yea. Cauliflower.

This could get really messy for N.O's

a reply to: jrod

Thx for posting that jrod.

Folks really need to be prepared ahead of time.

This could turn into a dangerous situation.

Looks like those spaghetti models are bring this into the gulf.

From what I have seen, it's too early to tell what will happen once it gets there.

Please keep posting any information you have. (your one of the best here for this information)

I am not that knowledgeable on hurricanes except what I learn here.

We want to keep the doom porn out of this. And stick with as much factual information as we can give.

Here is the latest video showing the spaghetti models.
weather.com...




Here is a shot of 92L
www.ssd.noaa.gov...


Here you can look at how 91L and 92L have split. (hopefully a good thing.)
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

a reply to: crappiekat

The storm2k forums are full of professional meteoroligists. I am posting the link to their active storm forum. It has threads with up to date computer models and input from the pros.

www.storm2k.org...

While linking other forums is a no no on here, this link contains potentially life and property saving information.

a reply to: jrod

Yikes! Your brave. lol.

Thx jrod.

End of time for the CMC model.
Little more dust in the model parameters and the track would run way down south into Mexico.

a reply to: crappiekat

Wind doesn't make hurricanes.
They are windy yes but they form over warm water when the pressure is very low and the upper conditions support the growth of clouds.
Wind can destroy a hurricane by blowing the tops off those forming cumulonimbus clouds.

a reply to: jrod

When you live here you're always ready lol.

a reply to: crappiekat

NOAA gives those lows a less than 40% chance for development.

a reply to: Sillyolme

Morning Silly.

Well it sounds like you are right. There not expecting much from either of these, except to give moisture to a third one trying to form behind them.
weather.com...

Good to hear.

Thx for posting Silly.

It appears the remnants of Harvey will redevelop and be a major rain, flood event for Texas. The rain is almost certain, intensity is much tougher to predict.

There is a chance it could rapidly intensify before landfall.

a reply to: jrod

Yep, I've been eyeballing Harvey since it was way out in the Atlantic. Storms that follow that path often come the way of the Texas Gulf Coast.

Good time to review prep even if all we get is a little wetter than normal. Tropical storms Francis and Allison caused major flooding in the Houston are, this one could do the same.

a reply to: jrod

Harvey is a depression again and taking aim at Texas.

From the National Hurricane Center:

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards to portions of the
Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Several days of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of
eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from
Friday through early next week. This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office (www.weather.gov) and the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more
information on the flooding hazard.

3. The National Weather Service has issued a Storm Surge Watch
from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. There is the possibility
of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from
the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will also be available on
the NHC website by 1200 PM CDT. Remember that the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected
inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.

5. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Texas coast from
Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

More sampling of the atmosphere is happening, hopefully more data will help the forecast.