Electoral Map - Trump will win. [Analysis]

originally posted by: tkwasny

originally posted by: dukeofjive696969
Good luck with that.

RI is the only New England state Trump won't win.

You think Trump wins New England?

The media did the same here with Brexit and thankfully they were wrong. Hope you guys get Trump, because God help us all if Hillary is shoehorned in. Good luck.

in my family the comey announcement has given trump 3 more votes. I don`t like either of them so I was going to vote independent, now I`m voting for trump to keep Hillary out of the whitehouse. my 2 daughters were going to vote for Hillary but since the comey announcement and all the other leaks they are voting for trump also,just to keep Hillary out.My wife has been a trump supporter from the very start so naturally she is voting for trump.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04

originally posted by: tkwasny

originally posted by: dukeofjive696969
Good luck with that.

RI is the only New England state Trump won't win.

You think Trump wins New England?

I think New England is going to suprise us, but not necessarily go 90% Trump. More like 60/40 one way or another.

I think Michigan will be the big surprise. Lots of Union rank and file want solid jobs back, regardless of what their bosses say.

originally posted by: HeywoodFloyd
We all know that the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favour of Hillary Clinton, right?

No they are not.

I have to agree with the shy voter point. It was exactly the same here in UK during brexit. Rather than being ridiculed and interrogated on their reason for leave people would simply say the were voting to "Remain" when in fact their little tick in the box was quite firmly in the "leave" camp. I know of many people who did this and can quite understand their reasons for doing so. The remain camp and media had the leavers feeling like they were right wing anarchists hell bent on destruction of the UK. It flipped the polls on their backside and i beleive the same will happen this week in USA

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: HeywoodFloyd
We all know that the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favour of Hillary Clinton, right?

No they are not.

Of course not. The population of America is obviously 60% women, 60% Democrat, 30% black minority and the black minority is just as enthused to vote for an old white woman as they were for the first black male candidate.

Keep telling yourself that.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: HeywoodFloyd

He is not taking PA and probably won't take NC either.
He's lost Utah to that indy. He's lost NV,

But giving him NC and Florida plus all Romney's states he still has no road at all. He needs PA. He needs Florida.
He may get Florida but I'm hopeful. Pennsylvania has been blue for a while now, the cities steer the state and Clinton has the cities.

lol even Cenk of The Young Turks disagrees with you there.

originally posted by: TomLawless
I wasn't going to vote for either candidate, but after today's announcement, I'm voting Trump.

I don't like him, but to hell with it. Hillary is Evil Incarnate.

I'm sure there might be a few more like me. Hopefully statistically significant.

Because the FBI decided there's nothing to prosecute Hillary with, that makes her evil incarnate?

originally posted by: Teikiatsu

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: HeywoodFloyd
We all know that the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favour of Hillary Clinton, right?

No they are not.

Of course not. The population of America is obviously 60% women, 60% Democrat, 30% black minority and the black minority is just as enthused to vote for an old white woman as they were for the first black male candidate.

Keep telling yourself that.

Remember when all the polls showed Romney trailing, so one site in particular (unbiasedpolls, i think it was called) only started showing polls with demographics split the way people like you thought they should be?

Yeah, those polls all showed Romney winning. They were wrong.

Please familiarize yourself a bit more with statistics.

A few points for your education:

1) Legitimate polls do not attempt a 50/50 split between R and D because there are no real numbers to draw from. Plus, it's dynamic and is viewed as an attitude rather than an immutable characteristic of the voter.
2) Polls attempt to measure likely voters. This is the hardest part to get right. But all they really have to go on are historical voting records. They do pretty good job, despite all this, because our elections are not so unique as each party would have us believe.

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: Teikiatsu

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: HeywoodFloyd
We all know that the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favour of Hillary Clinton, right?

No they are not.

Of course not. The population of America is obviously 60% women, 60% Democrat, 30% black minority and the black minority is just as enthused to vote for an old white woman as they were for the first black male candidate.

Keep telling yourself that.

Remember when all the polls showed Romney trailing, so one site in particular (unbiasedpolls, i think it was called) only started showing polls with demographics split the way people like you thought they should be?

Yeah, those polls all showed Romney winning. They were wrong.

Please familiarize yourself a bit more with statistics.

A few points for your education:

1) Legitimate polls do not attempt a 50/50 split between R and D because there are no real numbers to draw from. Plus, it's dynamic and is viewed as an attitude rather than an immutable characteristic of the voter.
2) Polls attempt to measure likely voters. This is the hardest part to get right. But all they really have to go on are historical voting records. They do pretty good job, despite all this, because our elections are not so unique as each party would have us believe.

Dude, it's not just the numbers. It's the enthusiasm. Hillary has none. They are photoshopping in attendees in Ohio and Florida. Kaine had to cancel events for lack of participation.

During the primaries there was record GOP turnout. Dem turnout was relatively anemic, even with Sanders.

There are projections that 20% of blacks will vote for Trump, as opposed to the usual 5%

Union workers are on record saying they will vote Trump to get jobs back, regardless of what they tell their bosses.

Polls are only sent out to recent previous voters. There are a lot of people who didn't vote in 2008 and 2012 because McCain and Romney disillusioned them. More people have caller ID these days and can ignore number their don't recognize.

We have wild swings from multiple polls from the same state with ranges of 6 to 15 points.

This election is unlike any other in recent memory.

I fully concede that Clinton may still win. If so, I'll also concede that the American experiment is dead and take steps to take care of my family. There are obviously enough useful idiots in the nation to make it happen. The progressives will have won and it's everyone for themselves.

But I also think there is a massive silent majority that flexed it muscles in 2010 then was suppressed starting in 2012 by agencies like IRS, ATF, DOJ, BLM and others. They are still out there and see this is the next big chance to have an impact.

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: TomLawless
I wasn't going to vote for either candidate, but after today's announcement, I'm voting Trump.

I don't like him, but to hell with it. Hillary is Evil Incarnate.

I'm sure there might be a few more like me. Hopefully statistically significant.

Because the FBI decided there's nothing to prosecute Hillary with, that makes her evil incarnate?

Comey never said that. He said “No reasonable prosecutor would bring a case.” Then he outlined in excruciating detail how she had broken the law and could be prosecuted. But oh, she didn't mean to break the law.

Kind of like how a drunk driver didn't mean to kill other people.

Or a negligent doctor didn't mean to kill patients with conflicting medications.

Or an mechanic didn't mean to ignore safety checks on an airliner before it crashed.

It wasn't their intent. So it's okay.

originally posted by: Teikiatsu

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: Teikiatsu

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: HeywoodFloyd
We all know that the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favour of Hillary Clinton, right?

No they are not.

Of course not. The population of America is obviously 60% women, 60% Democrat, 30% black minority and the black minority is just as enthused to vote for an old white woman as they were for the first black male candidate.

Keep telling yourself that.

Remember when all the polls showed Romney trailing, so one site in particular (unbiasedpolls, i think it was called) only started showing polls with demographics split the way people like you thought they should be?

Yeah, those polls all showed Romney winning. They were wrong.

Please familiarize yourself a bit more with statistics.

A few points for your education:

1) Legitimate polls do not attempt a 50/50 split between R and D because there are no real numbers to draw from. Plus, it's dynamic and is viewed as an attitude rather than an immutable characteristic of the voter.
2) Polls attempt to measure likely voters. This is the hardest part to get right. But all they really have to go on are historical voting records. They do pretty good job, despite all this, because our elections are not so unique as each party would have us believe.

Dude, it's not just the numbers. It's the enthusiasm. Hillary has none. They are photoshopping in attendees in Ohio and Florida. Kaine had to cancel events for lack of participation.

During the primaries there was record GOP turnout. Dem turnout was relatively anemic, even with Sanders.

There are projections that 20% of blacks will vote for Trump, as opposed to the usual 5%

Union workers are on record saying they will vote Trump to get jobs back, regardless of what they tell their bosses.

Polls are only sent out to recent previous voters. There are a lot of people who didn't vote in 2008 and 2012 because McCain and Romney disillusioned them. More people have caller ID these days and can ignore number their don't recognize.

We have wild swings from multiple polls from the same state with ranges of 6 to 15 points.

This election is unlike any other in recent memory.

I fully concede that Clinton may still win. If so, I'll also concede that the American experiment is dead and take steps to take care of my family. There are obviously enough useful idiots in the nation to make it happen. The progressives will have won and it's everyone for themselves.

But I also think there is a massive silent majority that flexed it muscles in 2010 then was suppressed starting in 2012 by agencies like IRS, ATF, DOJ, BLM and others. They are still out there and see this is the next big chance to have an impact.

Yes, Trump supporters have much more enthusiasm than Hillary supporters.

The truth is, the only reason Hillary has any chance to win is because she's running against Trump. Hillary's own camp knew this. In their own emails, they discussed how even a race against the highly unlikable Ted Cruz gave Hillary only a 50/50 shot, and they openly discussed how poor her candidacy was.

If the right had nominated anyone other than Trump, they would be running away with this election by now.

Per Nate Silver's math, the state of the economy should be good for at least 1% of the popular vote for the OTHER party (in this case, Republicans).

But because of Trump, the Republicans can't take advantage of the worst Democratic candidate in my lifetime (and when I say worst, I mean the least appealing to the masses), nor of the economy, nor of anything else.

That's the truth of it.

It has nothing to do with polls, or rigging, or government collusion, or failed institutions, and it has everything to do with the Republican base being completely unable (or unwilling) to judge what it would take to get past the primaries.

a reply to: HeywoodFloyd

The "shy voter" factor is taken away because the polls are by telephone.

Your "shy voters" are the ones not putting up signs in their yard because of the possible response of the neighbors. But nobody will know if you answered a phone poll or not and the pollster doesn't release names and what people said.

Politico's research shows that the shy voter is pretty much a myth

What happened was they changed the way people could respond, making it truly anonymous... and found that there wasn't much change in the numbers.

Plus you're not factoring in the votes already in the system (early voters like myself.)

I like RealClearPolitics, but I think the FiveThirtyEight polls give a better picture. Both are saying Hillary will win, but the margin is different (538 actually has it a little closer.)

a reply to: HeywoodFloyd

No, this is nonsense. You're pretending to have some kind of scientific analysis going on here, but if there were really any science behind what you wrote, you wouldn't have written the sweeping, nonsensical claim that "We all know the polls are rigged, and strongly biased in favor of Hillary Clinton".

This is garbage, but thanks for trying!

a reply to: Wardaddy454

Yeah but the pundits don't.

Oh her numbers are up in Florida today too.

a reply to: Teikiatsu

But voters are voting. They'll be there tomorrow too.

a reply to: HeywoodFloyd


Your are correct HeywoodFloyd. All the polls are wrong, therefore the majority of Electoral maps are too. Donald Trump WILL WIN tomorrow. Count on it!

a reply to: Teikiatsu

No he never outlined in detail how she had broken the law.
If she had broken the law they could have prosecuted.

Please get it right.

He said she was careless (his opinion btw)
Careless is not a prosecuitable action.

She did not break any laws and Comey NEVER said she did.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: HeywoodFloyd


Your are correct HeywoodFloyd. All the polls are wrong, therefore the majority of Electoral maps are too. Donald Trump WILL WIN tomorrow. Count on it!

Thanks, carewemust!
All the polls published by the Propaganda Machine are wrong, I agree.
And this is exactly the reason why I made this thread.

This is the reason why I extrapolated the (false) poll data,
included the correction factors,
to get more realistic and true numbers.

Anyway, tomorrow we shall see...

(hoping that the election themselves will not be rigged)