Real time Facebook presidential poll shows a completely different story than mainstream media polls

originally posted by: Indigo5

Whatever your politics ...Deciding to hate things like Science, Math and Reality is not a mentally healthy thing to do to your brain.

I'm not a fan of either major political party and would like to see the two party system demolished, as both are owned by wealthy business interests who only care about themselves. However, having said that, it is clear that a certain percentage of the far right have completely abandoned reality. Not *all* of the right, to be fair.

But there is a large contingent who have completely rejected all things REAL. They don't even check the sources on media outlets that clearly--verifiably--lie to them on a regular basis. And these aren't clever lies. These are sloppy, ridiculous lies, and they believe them because they reaffirm their natural bias.

Case in point: The story claiming Podesta rigged media polls
Case in point: The story claiming Podesta had a plan to get illegals to vote

I could go on.

These people are responsible for fracturing the republican party and for foisting Donald Trump onto the general election.

But--and this is key--the rest of America knows these people have gone off the rails. The rest of America rejects their lunacy. And so, someone like Trump can never get elected by the masses.

The lunatics are running the asylum.

And the sad thing is, we need major changes in our government.

Its simple, his friends list is primarily republican because he is a republican. Therefore most of his friends are republicans.. are most likely to have republican friends as well.

Its like those facebook posts telling you to hot to hillarys page and trumps page and count the mutual friends who have liked it.

I have around 860 facebook friends.

24 of them have liked Hillarys page 17 of them have loke Donald Trumps. I am a liberal.. with a republican family.. but liberal friends. That means that aroun 800 people showed no preference. 800.. mostly liberals...

The Trump supporters I know are super active on facebook posting anti Hillary stuff all day..

The Hillary people dont do anything. They think Trump is an idiot and has no chance so they see no sense in being very vocal or taking polls.

a reply to: Greggers

The sad thing is we need a Republican. What's horrific is what Republican's have come to think that means.

originally posted by: imjack
a reply to: Greggers

The sad thing is we need a Republican. What's horrific is what Republican's have come to think that means.

I think what we need could come in the form of R, D, I, or other.

What we need is someone willing to focus on correcting the huge imbalance of wealth and power that has consolidated in the wealthiest fraction of population. What's happening now is unprecedented in human history (at least to this level). I mean, the wealthy have always controlled the government, but for the last several decades they've run up the score to obscene levels, with no end in sight.

We need a populist President -- which Trump is -- but unfortunately Trump is not the right guy.

originally posted by: Rezlooper
You guys keep preaching about these "scientific" polls and that's the only thing we should believe.

Here's what I believe;

1. The mainstream media is completely biased

In the beginning of this race, yes the mainstream media was biased. They employed a false equivalency. They were so obsessed with appearing non-bias that they over-covered Hillary scandals and under-covered Trump's daily insanity in an erroneous bid at objectivity.


Eventually the insane daily/weekly parade of Trump Scandals...things he said and did...the list is a mountain...eventually made it impossible to not cover. The media is NOT bias against Trump...TRUMP"S OWN MOUTH IS BIASED AGAINST TRUMP.


STOP BLAMING THE MEDIA FOR REPORTING THE CRAP THAT HE SPOUTS IN FRONT OF THE MEDIA.

2. Mainstream media polls are the only thing in reality that attempt to portray Hillary in the lead.

Oh you mean the only thing showing Trump losing is those mathematicians, statisticians and social scientists interviewing thousands and thousands of people each day?

3. She is crushed on social media.

FB and Twitter are not the real world...The sooner you understand that the healthier you will be. Maybe visit the alt trump page on reddit and see how many vote-bots and twitter bots are being exchanged and begin to reconcile reality?

4. She is crushed on attendance at rally's. Hillary can't even fill a high school gym while Trump packs arenas.

Anger is a good motivator...The bulk of the country is not that. Trump loves to hold rally's in his markets. It is why the RNC was mad at him that he was holding rallies in Mississippi and Rural PA instead of regions where he needed to compete. Hillary goes to unfriendly ground for her campaigning to recruit converts.

5. She is crushed on obvious yard sign support. All across America it is the same... 1 Hillary sign for every 10 Trump signs.

Not sure what to do when faced with this kind of insanely unscientific claim?

6. Voter enthusiasm. It worked for Obama and the democrats in 2008.

Trump supporters very well might come with more conviction...Extremists, by definition, have more conviction in their beliefs and are a minority (not the norm).

7. As far as that enthusiasm, Republicans in denial will come around and they will vote while democrats have no enthusiasm this year and they will stay home.

A massive chunk of Hillary supporters are not enthusiastic about Hillary, but they are HUUUGELY enthusiastic about not having Trump in the WH. Thus the endless stream of conservative Newspapers and Politicians endorsing Hillary.

8. Hillary's most support comes from the inner city and the elderly.

Not sure how to help you there. Polls (yes those things) disprove your ...what again led you to that belief?

So, once again. What do you have to show Hillary is winning.

Reality..

originally posted by: proteus33
a reply to: Rezlooper
not to burst your bubble but all polls are totally unreliable and the popular vote is not what elects president it is the electoral college votes and they can vote what ever way they want.

If the electoral college went totally against the will of the people, you would see a huge revolt. This would include people voting out every incumbent in office.

a reply to: Lucidparadox

I see the exact opposite. I have about 400 Facebook friends, slightly over half of them liberal. I see about 20 Anti Trump posts and about half that in Pro Hilary posts a day. I ended up temporarily hiding the ones who do that as it was getting out of hand. About 30 are VERY active posting these kinds of things. I see maybe 1 or 2 pro Trump/anti Hilary posts a week. I see more anti Obama posts than I do Anti Hilary, mostly having to do with insurance since it's open enrollment season.

I have noticed that some of my associates who I equate with stupidity are the most vapid and rail against Trump because Trump.

The majority of offenders are more likely to post anti Trump messages than Pro Hilary.

I am now in a zero tolerance zone with social media. Anyone who posts anything gets hidden right away.

originally posted by: imjack
a reply to: Greggers

The sad thing is we need a Republican. What's horrific is what Republican's have come to think that means.

Bump that, but add plural..We need REPUBLICANS..and the party has been sliding fringe...now alt-right for over a decade.

Democrats and Republicans balance each-other out and offer best policy in the compromise.

Hillary is center-right by Reagan's standards...that is why Bernie was almost able to take her out from the left...and it's why so many GOP newspapers and political figures have endorsed her.

a reply to: Greggers

The media Is not scientific either. Its obvious, just by watching the election campaigns... that the media is Pro-Hillary, and that they are controlled by elite banking families, or Globalists..the same Globalists Hillary has been helping all along. You feel free to admit that!

originally posted by: BlueAjah

originally posted by: proteus33
a reply to: Rezlooper
not to burst your bubble but all polls are totally unreliable and the popular vote is not what elects president it is the electoral college votes and they can vote what ever way they want.

If the electoral college went totally against the will of the people, you would see a huge revolt. This would include people voting out every incumbent in office.

LITERALLY...The electoral college went against the will of the people in 2004. Gore won the popular vote, Bush won the electoral college.

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: MiloTheMarauder
I bet 100 million dollhairs that Hillary gets POTUS. Not like Facebook is any more a decent sampling size than wherever MSM gets their polls from. I don't have nor want a Facebook page.

Legitimate polling organizations poll RANDOMLY, with sample sizes that give reliable margin of error.

Facebook polls measure whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll.

Big difference.

Isn't that what happens at the polls? The election measures whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll (vote).

a reply to: Rezlooper

This is in the south where most of his uneducated supporters are from. This doesn't surprise, but at the same time Clinton's corruption is undeniable. So I say vote third party.

originally posted by: IlluminatiTechnician
a reply to: Greggers

The media Is not scientific either.

Define "Media"?
Fox Online Polls? FB? Twitter? Drudge?
Or Monmouth University? Marist College? Quinnipac University? Public Policy Institute? Ipsos?

"Media" is a catch-all these days for any reality people don't like and refuse to accept.

Anyone with an average intelligence can vet a poll or story for veracity.
And it's an intellectual slight to choose not to examine something you don't want to be true.
But it's outright intellectually dishonest to declare something untrue without actually examining it.

And too many people are lying to themselves these days. It's habit that injures both individuals and our society at large.

originally posted by: 00018GE

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: MiloTheMarauder
I bet 100 million dollhairs that Hillary gets POTUS. Not like Facebook is any more a decent sampling size than wherever MSM gets their polls from. I don't have nor want a Facebook page.

Legitimate polling organizations poll RANDOMLY, with sample sizes that give reliable margin of error.

Facebook polls measure whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll.

Big difference.

Isn't that what happens at the polls? The election measures whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll (vote).

Yes...if voting worked like facebook, where no-one knew about the vote except your friends and online social network.

For effs-sake...your FB followers are not the world...psst, they are often people that think a lot like you.

This is a flavor of the same logic Trump uses...He says look at all the people that come to my rallies! Everyone in this country must love me!!

Justin Bieber must look out form his stage and think the whole world loves him!! All he needs to do is forget that only people who want to see him are in attendance.

The fallacy of composition arises when one infers that something is true of the whole from the fact that it is true of some part of the whole
en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: conscientiousobserver

Really quick, what do you mean "this is the south where most of his uneducated supporters are".

You do realize the south has a higher graduation rate than the rest of the country right?

New York, Alaska, Arizona, New Mexico, D.C. (Lowest by far), Oregon (Second lowest), Washington, Nevada are definitely not southern states and have a higher rate of non graduates...Meanwhile Texas has the highest rate of graduates and NC, GA, Virgina, Tennessee are FAR above the national average.

Source

But hey, why don't you be glaringly ignorant yourself and perpetuate a myth about an entire area of the country.

originally posted by: introvert

If she wins this election I will be totally convinced that America has been hijacked by the Clinton Cabal and we are all friggin' doomed!

Because of a non-scientific poll conducted on facebook?

That makes no sense.

Aren't all polls conducted garbage? How do you know that these different polling organizations don't purposefully conduct their surveys in areas that are pro-dem or pro-rep? If there's more democrats in a polling area -- clearly Hillary would poll higher, and vice versa. Maybe I just don't understand how they can conduct purely bipartisan polls?

For the record, I think all polls, including the scientific polls that you, and others, frequently mention are hogwash. Citing polls in anyone's favor is nothing but partisan bickering. Its a pissing contest on a national level. My dad can beat up your dad (or mom in this case). Elections in general are extremely faulty, and there's no reason to think that polls are any better.

a reply to: Gin

So you post info about one democratic polling organization. What about all the Republican ones?

a reply to: imthegoat

That's not how they conduct polls. Mostly polls publish their methodology so that it can be peer reviewed.

ABC was recently called out for heavily over sampling democrats and ending up with a +12 for Hilary, something no other poll agrees with. The majority of pollsters for some reason stopped including their demographics. The polls that still do include that in their methodology have Clinton and Trump in a statistical tie, but Hilary leads by 1-2 points.

ABC redid their poll and came back with a +6 for Hilary as their revised number and pulled the previous poll. They still did not included demographics in their methodology.

originally posted by: 00018GE

originally posted by: Greggers

originally posted by: MiloTheMarauder
I bet 100 million dollhairs that Hillary gets POTUS. Not like Facebook is any more a decent sampling size than wherever MSM gets their polls from. I don't have nor want a Facebook page.

Legitimate polling organizations poll RANDOMLY, with sample sizes that give reliable margin of error.

Facebook polls measure whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll.

Big difference.

Isn't that what happens at the polls? The election measures whoever voluntarily shows up to take the poll (vote).

The election is not a statistically driven opinion poll.

It is a final count.

Predicting that count ahead of time requires STATISTICS, which requires randomization.

originally posted by: raymundoko
a reply to: imthegoat

That's not how they conduct polls. Mostly polls publish their methodology so that it can be peer reviewed.

ABC was recently called out for heavily over sampling democrats and ending up with a +12 for Hilary, something no other poll agrees with. The majority of pollsters for some reason stopped including their demographics. The polls that still do include that in their methodology have Clinton and Trump in a statistical tie, but Hilary leads by 1-2 points.

ABC redid their poll and came back with a +6 for Hilary as their revised number and pulled the previous poll. They still did not included demographics in their methodology.

How are they conducted, though? I'm a little blind when it comes to it, but it doesn't change my view as I've seen the polls be wrong numerous times. Are they conducted via phone? On the ground? Internet? Do they just not include that they target demographics, or do they really not target demographics? Are they conducted in a local setting and then scientifically calculated for a national result?