The GOPs Trump dilemma

originally posted by: KawRider9
a reply to: matafuchs

Well said.

All they can do is call us names and say how he'll get zero support from _______ group. Ignoring the fact he beat out the entire GOP field. The silent majority stays silent for a reason.

Trump2016

The "entire GOP field" isn't indicative of the entire country's voting choices though. Just because a bunch of Republicans embraced Donald Trump doesn't automatically mean that he will fair well in the general election. That is a false equivalency.

a reply to: kruphix

Excellent, excellent summation!

Trump is the end result of the GOP turning away from policy voters and running head long towards emotional voters.

One caveat, the word "dumb" should be avoided. That may sound like a pc remark lol, but I have found the word "dumb" to not be as accurate as the word "emotional" you used. I have seen too many highly intelligent GOP voters over the years who voted Republican based solely on emotional narratives and wedge issues. In fact, these highly intelligent people were ignorant of politics in general and on their own party's non-social issues.

You are quite correct in your assessment of recent years, but this snowball started rolling downhill in 1980. And as it rolled further downhill it got bigger, until by the time it hit the bottom, it was massive.

originally posted by: Byrd

Not so much that as he's gone places that they can't support - and weren't in their platform statements. He's so far off their stated positions (and in some cases, ethics) that they simply can't agree to support him.

He seems to be doing an all or nothing approach. It worked well for him when he had to overcome 16 candidates as his rhetoric pushed him into the lime light. I would have thought he would have slowed down on it to establish a more approachable candidate for the masses.

Who knows though with Hillary seemly going down daily in flames with emails health invesigations etc. Can a president be elected then do time...lol

originally posted by: Xtrozero

Who knows though with Hillary seemly going down daily in flames with emails health invesigations etc. Can a president be elected then do time...lol

Except Hillary isn't "going down daily in flames". Every controversy that comes out around Hillary seems to get drowned out by the latest idiocy from Trump.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Byrd

Not so much that as he's gone places that they can't support - and weren't in their platform statements. He's so far off their stated positions (and in some cases, ethics) that they simply can't agree to support him.

He seems to be doing an all or nothing approach. It worked well for him when he had to overcome 16 candidates as his rhetoric pushed him into the lime light. I would have thought he would have slowed down on it to establish a more approachable candidate for the masses.

Except that he's not that kind of person. If you've ever seen him on Apprentice or other sorts of things, he's kind of a bully. He doesn't really listen to advisors and he does grab a few soundbites from somewhere (Twitter, I suspect) and marches off with those as armament.

It's particularly evident that he does this in his Twitter feuds that he seems to get into on a weekly basis.

Who knows though with Hillary seemly going down daily in flames with emails health invesigations etc.

Double check the source on those reports and you'll find that most of them are blogs and that there's no good original source (one that we debunked recently was an obvious hoax.) While the Republicans (and Trump) have tried to make these points, she's at least as healthy as I am (I'm just a few years younger than she), the strategy is not working. I think that's because they failed to make a case for any charges early on in her career. As their frustration grew, they turned to more extreme claims (and to hoaxes) - and are now lunging after any absurd claim they think someone might believe.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Because the media is deflecting. She is very much tanking. Propped up by false polls. If she was killing him she should be at 60% in any election poll...instead, it is leveling out again.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

80 million raised last month by TRUMP not the GOP. Rallies for GOP candidates. Who is defecting? Progressive Republicans. Let them go.

a reply to: Byrd

First this...

As their frustration grew, they turned to more extreme claims (and to hoaxes) - and are now lunging after any absurd claim they think someone might believe.

This is the DNC and the MSM against Trump, not HIllary. Google...Facebook...Twitter...they are all against Trump. Good for them. They just want to the same.

Basing your opinion on a TV show someone 'starred' in for ratings is also not a way to define a bully. It is like watching the Daily Show for political commentary.

a reply to: matafuchs

Narratives like this only work without evidence. Here's my evidence that you are talking out your ass:
Election Polls

Even the outlier of the LA Times has Clinton up +1 with whatever adjustment they felt was necessary to "correct" the polling. Find me a poll where Trump is actually winning.

But hey, continue arguing with reality. You are only setting yourself up for a MASSIVE disappointment come November.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

I see. So NOW polls are important right? When Trump was ahead all of you, and you star buddies, denounced them. Now they are bond?

The primary polls were one thing. We have all read how these polls are skewed and if you poll more Democrats than Republicans you are talking out of your ass.....

Read this article. It is not so much about polling but direction of the country.

www.washingtonpost.com...

or, if you want a poll...here is one published yesterday

www.rasmussenreports.com...

Within the margin of error even when skewed. This is a nice tidbit to look at also.

Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.

Very very close....

The GOP does not have a dilemma...the DNC and Clinton do because they just cannot seem to knock him out and Trump just like the entire GOP field who were not lightweights.

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Because the media is deflecting. She is very much tanking. Propped up by false polls. If she was killing him she should be at 60% in any election poll...instead, it is leveling out again.

Really now you are on to skewed polls? That is so 2012, and look how that worked. There were many on the right in 2012 that used this same argument and were actually surprised on election day when Nate Silver got All Fifty States Right

Trump did awesome in the GOP primaries and most pundits thought he would not win, even though the polls said he would, it was dismissed and the "Not Romney" flavor of the month. Trump grew his support in the GOP but that shtick does not seem to play well in the general election.

It is not 1 poll it is hundreds of polls that show Trump losing and losing big. And polls start to matter now.

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: Krazysh0t

I see. So NOW polls are important right? When Trump was ahead all of you, and you star buddies, denounced them. Now they are bond?

The primary polls were one thing. We have all read how these polls are skewed and if you poll more Democrats than Republicans you are talking out of your ass.....

Read this article. It is not so much about polling but direction of the country.

www.washingtonpost.com...

or, if you want a poll...here is one published yesterday

www.rasmussenreports.com...

Within the margin of error even when skewed. This is a nice tidbit to look at also.

Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.

Very very close....

The GOP does not have a dilemma...the DNC and Clinton do because they just cannot seem to knock him out and Trump just like the entire GOP field who were not lightweights.

I waqs one that did not think Trump would win the GOP nomination. I believed the polls, I just did not think he would sustain the lead. Like in 2012 with all th e"Not-Romney's" that had a polling lead for a month. But he did win and the polls said it all the time.

You can look at one poll and see what you want, but what if that poll is an outlier? The strength is averaging them together, like RCP. No Toss Up States
They average all the polls together at the state level. This lessens the chances that an outlier could make a difference. If the election were held today Trump would lose in a landslide, take the Senate with him and possibly the House. Also 90% of the candidates that lead at this point, 2 weeks after the last convention, won the race.

a reply to: blargo

Funny, on July 30th he had Trump ahead.So in 12 days he has suddenly found there is no way for Trump to win? Kind of sounds like a Reuters deal to me....

Mr. Spad, this is a wonderfully laid out OP. Good job.

To my fellow ATSer's: the comments in this thread are heartening; constructive, well thought out, and well mannered. Kudos!

I wanted to share this new opinion piece from thehill.com written by Republican operative, Matt Mackowiak.

Yesterday, he hit his breaking point, and issued a 20 tweet venting session, making excellent points.

Today's article Trump's loss could make the GOP extinct fleshes out some of his twitter thoughts. Here are a few examples.

5/ More fundamentally, the Trump campaign needs to discover the value of scarcity. Make Trump scarce. Fewer interviews. Shorter rallies.

He suggests Trump spend this extra free time studying for the debates.
Sage advice.

7/ Can Trump show discipline for the rest of August? No more loose talk. Exciting a crowd isn't impressive. Winning a battleground state is.

Matt furthers this point here:

His image is underwater by more than 30 points. I have never seen a candidate in such a position, at any level, win an election. Your base won't be as enthusiastic, your turnout won't be as high and, most importantly, undecided voters will break sharply against you.

This last portion is what the Trump2016 supporters are missing. Trump has no path to 270 electoral delegates without independent voters, and his foot in mouth disease is driving them away at an alarming rate.

To reinforce that point, look at the polls released by the Wall Street Journal and Marist this morning.
Here is a link to the numbers at NBCNews, because the WSJ link requires a subscription.

To peruse the poll methodology, find the Marist data links here

Florida
Clinton 44% +5
Trump 39%

North Carolina
Clinton 48% +9
Trump 39%

Virginia
Clinton 46% +13
Trump 33%

Colorado
Clinton 46% +14
Trump 32%

(These polls are of registered voters, with respondents mirroring 2010 census data, using a mix of landlines and cell phones, conducted by live interviewers)

Things can certainly change over the next 90 some days, and most certainly will, but if Trump doesn't change tactics soon he will lose in a landslide and the republican majority in the Senate may also vanish.



I think the majority of GOP candidates are edging toward an "every man for himself/herself" scenario, running away from Trump, or toward him, based on their constituent makeup.

originally posted by: MrSpad
Trump says he will go back to a very nice life after losing but, somebody has to clean up the mess he is leaving the GOP in or it will cease to exist.

I bet this all sounds very familiar to the contractors he abandoned who were left hanging with the bill.

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: Krazysh0t

I see. So NOW polls are important right? When Trump was ahead all of you, and you star buddies, denounced them. Now they are bond?

Who are you speaking for? I never denounced any polls. I just didn't take stock in polls that solely represented the Republican primary since I didn't care about that election.

The primary polls were one thing. We have all read how these polls are skewed and if you poll more Democrats than Republicans you are talking out of your ass.....

Saying things like this proves you don't know how statistical sampling works.

Read this article. It is not so much about polling but direction of the country.

www.washingtonpost.com...

or, if you want a poll...here is one published yesterday

www.rasmussenreports.com...

See Hillary is still winning. Of course her post convention bounce is waning, but Trump still has QUITE a bit of ground to makeup even for that 3% difference in that poll.

Within the margin of error even when skewed. This is a nice tidbit to look at also.

Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.

Very very close....

The GOP does not have a dilemma...the DNC and Clinton do because they just cannot seem to knock him out and Trump just like the entire GOP field who were not lightweights.

It's nice how you selectively apply statistics that look good for you but ignore literally EVERY statistic that paints a dark picture for Trump's Presidential chances. Even that WaPo source you quoted isn't giving him good chances.

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Because the media is deflecting. She is very much tanking. Propped up by false polls. If she was killing him she should be at 60% in any election poll...instead, it is leveling out again.

The polls are not false and they are not leveling out. Trump has his own internal polls which likely gave him yesterday the news we are getting today. Donald Trump just got hit with another wave of brutal polls from swing states Which is why Trump is now saying he might win or he might be on vacation soon. He admits he has problems in battle ground states and was begging the preachers to get evangelicals out to help him.

Trump has refused to listen to the GOP and is doing things the same way he was. And the is fine for the his core group of supporters. That however does not bring back the large numbers of Republicans that have left him nor does it bring any new supporters in.

When you claim Obama created ISIS, then a day later when asked to make yourself clear say you meant Obama literally founded, ISIS then a day later say you were only being sarcastic, you just wast nearly a weeks new cycle on something stupid. Just like claiming the NFL sent him a letter about the debate dates, the next day the NFL says no such letter was sent, then the next day Trump again has to admit he made that up, then he does it again with a video he claims he saw etc.

So instead of a week on message, Trumps weeks are start it off with some big lie, spend a couple days doubling down on the lie, then by the end of the week admitting it was a lie. Who can win an election like that? How is that going bring in non Trump voters.

The GOP is flipping out because he is even losing in normal red states. That is going to crush them in the house and senate.

And with Trumps comments about maybe I will win, I might be going back to a great life soon, I might be on a long vacation soon. It seems he has just given up. Sure the numbers are terrible and looking to be one the worst Republican defeats in history but, just giving up? Never thought I would see the day.

a reply to: matafuchs

Even if Trump got 90 per cent of the vote your getting President Hillary about the only country in the worlds citizens that dont know that is America's, thats if you all dont die in a nuclear firestorm first your country is blissfully unaware of the current geopolitical climate your maniacal leaders have created out there

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: blargo

Funny, on July 30th he had Trump ahead.So in 12 days he has suddenly found there is no way for Trump to win? Kind of sounds like a Reuters deal to me....

Sure at that point it was just after the GOP convention and most polls at that point did not factor in the DNC. Polls during and just after the conventions can bounce all around. Two weeks after the last convention then we get a good view of where the election is. We are at that point now and Trump is far behind, especially in many if not all of the key battleground states.

Look at all of the polling out now, at a National level it shows Trump behind from 2 to 15 points with an average of about 6.5 points.
You look at key battle grounds:
PA no poll shows Trump with lead and Clinton +9 points average
OH has 2 polls with a tie the rest with Clinton +2.6 points average
Florida has no polls with Trump lead and Clinton +3.3 points average

So what does this tell us? At this point PA looks like a lost cause for Trump, but OH and FL are competitive.

But what should really scare you is this race:
Georgia: Trump vs Clinton
Clinton has an average 1.2 point lead in Georgia!!! Georgia.

a reply to: blargo

Just look at this....

en.wikipedia.org...


Easiest place to find it all.

Polls will change. Polls will go up and down.