Hillary Takes Huge Lead in new Poll

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: olaru12

Other than people all over the country are donating huge amounts of money to his campaign. he has raised $140m in two months, primarily from small donations. Hillary is getting her money from Wall Street.

I think you are watching too much CNN and reading too much propaganda.

I'll bet Trump is watching the same propaganda I'm watching and he's ****** bricks.
yep, corporate interest are behind Clinton. Capitalism always supports its own interest. They don't trust Trump.
I don't know how accurate the polls are but Trump isn't doing well and the GOP is trying to distance themselves from him.

www.politico.com...

Politico...
The same outlet that sends it's articles to Hillary Clinton to approve.
As I said, stop reading propaganda.

By the way, the only person #ting bricks is Hillary. If Trump loses he can relax by his pool, if Hillary loses she's going to jail.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: olaru12

Other than people all over the country are donating huge amounts of money to his campaign. he has raised $140m in two months, primarily from small donations. Hillary is getting her money from Wall Street.

I think you are watching too much CNN and reading too much propaganda.

I'll bet Trump is watching the same propaganda I'm watching and he's ****** bricks.
yep, corporate interest are behind Clinton. Capitalism always supports its own interest. They don't trust Trump.
I don't know how accurate the polls are but Trump isn't doing well and the GOP is trying to distance themselves from him.

www.politico.com...

Politico...

The same outlet that sends it's articles to Hillary Clinton to approve.
As I said, stop reading propaganda.
.

Right, when ever losing the debate shift the focus on to old 19 and 20. Nice try!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: UKTruth
a reply to: olaru12

Other than people all over the country are donating huge amounts of money to his campaign. he has raised $140m in two months, primarily from small donations. Hillary is getting her money from Wall Street.

I think you are watching too much CNN and reading too much propaganda.

I'll bet Trump is watching the same propaganda I'm watching and he's ****** bricks.
yep, corporate interest are behind Clinton. Capitalism always supports its own interest. They don't trust Trump.
I don't know how accurate the polls are but Trump isn't doing well and the GOP is trying to distance themselves from him.

www.politico.com...

Politico...

The same outlet that sends it's articles to Hillary Clinton to approve.
As I said, stop reading propaganda.
.

Right, when ever losing the debate shift the focus on to old 19 and 20. Nice try!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Disinformation?
Politico were caught in the WikiLeaks email dump... they were sending copy for approval.
www.mediaite.com...

Buried in the hacked DNC emails released by Wikileaks recently was an email chain between Politico’s Ken Vogel and DNC national press secretary Mark Paustenbach. Vogel’s email had the subject line “per agreement … any thoughts appreciated” and contained the entire body of his upcoming story. “Vogel gave me his story ahead of time/before it goes to his editors as long as I didn’t share it,” Paustenbach told another DNC staffer.

Try harder.
If you want to do some analysis to support why Trump's campaign is over, then great, let's see it. Please don't link MSM opinion piece articles though. They have zero credibility... another example, this time the Washington Post:

Subject: just FYI, the story is running on A1 tomorrow
Dear Mark,
I think you all will be totally fine with it. Thanks again for all your help.
Best, Juliet

Unskew the polls thing all over again...lol

Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Yes , it's one of many I follow.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Yes , it's one of many I follow.

I listened to him in an interview couple weeks ago. He was, of course, unhappy with himself/team for mis-reading Trump.

It was fascinating how he explained it. He said, the info was there, but kinda different then the numbers they generally focus on.

Not a mistake he ever wants to make again.

Numbers do fluctuate, but, if anything, I think he'd be cautious in his Hillary predictions.

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Yes , it's one of many I follow.

I listened to him in an interview couple weeks ago. He was, of course, unhappy with himself/team for mis-reading Trump.

It was fascinating how he explained it. He said, the info was there, but kinda different then the numbers they generally focus on.

Not a mistake he ever wants to make again.

Numbers do fluctuate, but, if anything, I think he'd be cautious in his Hillary predictions.

He uses a few forecasts including a statistical approach that factors in a number of variables like the the state of the economy and historical trends and correlations. As with all these models they use historical data to predict forward but can be way off due to unknown future events (a bit like the models that try to predict stock market movements - if you ever get the chance and haven't done so already read the story of Long Term Capital Management). All he can really do is state probability based on what we know now and the available data. There is also the very real problem of modelling outcomes in terms of data - rubbish in/ rubbish out. IF the polls are skewed his models will be too as the polls are still a vital part of his methodology.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Yes , it's one of many I follow.

I listened to him in an interview couple weeks ago. He was, of course, unhappy with himself/team for mis-reading Trump.

It was fascinating how he explained it. He said, the info was there, but kinda different then the numbers they generally focus on.

Not a mistake he ever wants to make again.

Numbers do fluctuate, but, if anything, I think he'd be cautious in his Hillary predictions.

He uses a few forecasts including a statistical approach that factors in a number of variables like the the state of the economy and historical trends and correlations. As with all these models they use historical data to predict forward but can be way off due to unknown future events (a bit like the models that try to predict stock market movements - if you ever get the chance and haven't done so already read the story of Long Term Capital Management). All he can really do is state probability based on what we know now and the available data. There is also the very real problem of modelling outcomes in terms of data - rubbish in/ rubbish out. IF the polls are skewed his models will be too as the polls are still a vital part of his methodology.

I used to get very involved, had files with links, etc. Now, I try to stick to opinion subjects rather then facts. Facts, backing up facts with more facts - - is very time consuming.

Today my 8 year old grandson (high functioning autism - kinda like ADHD) takes priority.

I'll check out Long Term Capital Management (LOL, this is the word I had to edit - Punishment), but probably not in-depth.

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Nate SIlver is a freaking joke. He is so obviously skewed politically that no one should believe anything he posts. So are all the other polls that supposedly show Clinton in the lead. Now remember, you have seen videos of Trump meetings with packed houses, and videos of Clinton meetings in smaller venues half-empty. Why is this, do you think? Are your eyes lying to you? Look online. How many people do you see supporting Trump on forums, and social media, compared to Clinton. Are your eyes lying to you?

Of course not!

Here's the proof. Someone did an independent poll because they did not believe the numbers they were seeing. They polled 50,000 people in all 50 states, 1/3 democrat, 1/3 republican and 1/3 independent. And guess what the results were?

Trump 67%
Clinton 19%
Other/Undecided 13%

So there you have it. Proof that the mainstream media, and criminals like Nate Silver have an obvious agenda that has nothing to do with the truth. People need to WTFU and see what is going on around them...the complete corruption of our gov't, and the blatant lies that have been told to the American people for decades.

Hey, but don't believe me. Read it for yourself:

www.alipac.us...

originally posted by: nomoredemsorreps

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Nate SIlver is a freaking joke. He is so obviously skewed politically that no one should believe anything he posts. So are all the other polls that supposedly show Clinton in the lead.

NO! He's not.

Is he perfect? NO. He's human, but he is no joke.

Then there are those who choose to live in "Delusionland".

a reply to: UKTruth

Going to jail for what?
Don't be absurd.

originally posted by: muse7
Unskew the polls thing all over again...lol

a reply to: UKTruth

So what? Trump has to ban entire news organizations from his rallys.
I bet he'd kill for final.approval on news. But his antics are so entertaining no media outlet would ever shoot their foot off agreeing to censoring their reporting on him.

a reply to: Annee

A compilation of polls on a graph shows that Clinton's lowest poll rating was two points lower than the highest poll rating for Trump. Two points .The difference between his highest and her lowest is two points.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: UKTruth

So what? Trump has to ban entire news organizations from his rallys.
I bet he'd kill for final.approval on news. But his antics are so entertaining no media outlet would ever shoot their foot off agreeing to censoring their reporting on him.

It's not a surprise that you are all for the media and politicians colluding to feed doctored and biased political news to the public. You're their perfect case study of why it works.

The only reason people want the criminal Hillary.

They receive a monthly benefit they are afraid to lose.

Or, you are a criminal yourself.

Why else would anyone support somebody who has ripped us off for 30 years.

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: nomoredemsorreps

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Annee
Dated today from Nate Silver 538.

And NO, he will not underestimate Trump again (for those who want to use that excuse)

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. fivethirtyeight.com...

His forecast changes dramatically day to day. There's three months to go and there is the added question of the polls distribution of dems vs reps. We'll see how it plays out. My own feeling from looking at the data is that Clinton is indeed a clear favourite but given the wide swings from week to week a lot can change. I actually think the independent voters are still very undecided which is the underlying reason for the periodic swings in voting intent.

Do you really read his site?

Nate SIlver is a freaking joke. He is so obviously skewed politically that no one should believe anything he posts. So are all the other polls that supposedly show Clinton in the lead.

NO! He's not.

Is he perfect? NO. He's human, but he is no joke.

Then there are those who choose to live in "Delusionland".

Yeah, delusionland. Exactly. Do you bleat too? SMH.