First major Clinton vs Trump poll since RNC convention - Trump leading

originally posted by: syrinx high priest
that's a disappointing bump

what remains to be seen is if hillary can manage a counter bump

As has been mentioned by introvert, I am sure she will after the DNC. Probably mid August before we get a clear read of the convention effect.

So after the RNC convention when Trump outlined his vision of America and told millions of America that he was their voice..
He only managed to get a 2 point bump in the polls?

Sad!

originally posted by: muse7
So after the RNC convention when Trump outlined his vision of America and told millions of America that he was their voice..
He only managed to get a 2 point bump in the polls?

Sad!

Half of the poll was pre his speech. It ran from 21-22 July. We'll see what the next few polls bring.

originally posted by: buster2010

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: buster2010
Misleading title. The poll clearly shows Clinton in the lead. Trump leads in two Clinton leads in six. So just how is Trump leading?

LATEST poll, which is Gravis, the only major poll post convention - as the title said. So not in the slightest bit misleading.
I already referenced the fact in the OP that Clinton is leading in the averages including the ones prior to the RNC.

Yes the title is misleading. If you want to only refer to the Gravis poll then the title should have been Gravis poll shows Trump leading Clinton. But now you are using other polls to try and back up your statement cherry picking polls just shows you refuse to acknowledge that Clinton is stomping Trump.

Stomping Trump? Really? You accuse the OP of cherry picking and you follow up with propaganda? In ALL those polls it's pretty damn close, we CAN read you know? At least try and keep the exaggerating to threads which don't contain actual data which we can all interpret as being a close race and try and spin it to your agenda of "Stomping Trump". You look foolish.

a reply to: UKTruth

It is a shame that the popular vote doesn't matter one lick in the United States. All that matters is electoral votes and sadly those are already mostly in the books for Hillary.

I find it hard to believe that 50% of the nation is voting for Clinton. I have yet to run into a Clinton supporter

I am and I'm not the only person here voting for her. Considering that ATS is about 70% conservative it's not surprising that you aren't seeing them here, but in some parts of the country she has plenty of fans.

originally posted by: Metallicus
a reply to: UKTruth

It is a shame that the popular vote doesn't matter one lick in the United States. All that matters is electoral votes and sadly those are already mostly in the books for Hillary.

Incorrect - the swing states are all close. In fact all are in or close to the margin of error.

Here are the top 10 states according their chances of swinging the election.
These 10 states will pretty much decide who wins the required electoral college votes.

Polls crack me up.

Ring Ring......

Hey Skunk, you like guns?
No

Do you have any guns?
No

Would you ever purchase a gun?
Absolutely not.

Are you white, black, Hispanic?
Other

So, Skunk, who ya gonna vote for this Fall?
Hillary of course!!!

Hee, hee, hee...................

2nd poll just released... also Trump +2 and shows that Trump is closing the gap with women and Hispanics.
This poll finished on the 22nd, but started just before the convention.

uasdata.usc.edu...

New CNN Poll
Trump 48%
Clinton 45%

Whatever poll the local radio was citing this morning (ABC News radio) was giving it a 4-point difference for Trump.

Now we'll see what the dysfunctional DNC can manage.

Well, as it's a matter of history now that this years RNC (particularly the final night) had much lower ratings than expected, the bump we're seeing probably has more to do with negative public response to the hoo-hah about DNC emails, etc.

Donald Trump Speech Ratings Fall Far Below GOP Record on Final Night of RNC - Variety

That said, we are only beginning to approach the part of the action in which the vast number of voters, the "undecided" and "Independents" start to make their nose-holding decisions and pick a poison.

We'll see.

The 4 way poll by CNN has Trump at 5% up.

He now also leads the RCP averages in the head to head.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

originally posted by: Gryphon66
Well, as it's a matter of history now that this years RNC (particularly the final night) had much lower ratings than expected, the bump we're seeing probably has more to do with negative public response to the hoo-hah about DNC emails, etc.

Donald Trump Speech Ratings Fall Far Below GOP Record on Final Night of RNC - Variety

That said, we are only beginning to approach the part of the action in which the vast number of voters, the "undecided" and "Independents" start to make their nose-holding decisions and pick a poison.

We'll see.

The article says that he's going to be second all time... not bad. It also excludes all those who will have watched live streams online, including those all around the world.
We've certainly scene the convention bump with Trump now leading (the DNCleaks scandal is not yet represented in any polls), but I expect that the numbers will bounce for Clinton after the DNC convention and we'll see where we are in about a week or so...it looks like this is going to be close.

a reply to: UKTruth

The article says that Trump's speech was behind Romney's and far behind McCains.

Those that watched (or didn't watch) "around the world" are not US voters, typically, so have no bearing on the matter.

Two to four points can hardly be considered "a convention bounce." If I remember correctly, the last Clinton surged by about 30 points after his convention.

Like I surmised, I'd guess we're seeing a reaction to the non-issue of the "DNC Emails" in the last few days, as well as the beginning of the inevitable shift of the greater part of the American Electorate ... the Independents.

Two to four points (four points in a very informal LA Times poll) is ... lackluster at best in terms of what Trump needed.

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: UKTruth

The article says that Trump's speech was behind Romney's and far behind McCains.

Those that watched (or didn't watch) "around the world" are not US voters, typically, so have no bearing on the matter.

Two to four points can hardly be considered "a convention bounce." If I remember correctly, the last Clinton surged by about 30 points after his convention.

Like I surmised, I'd guess we're seeing a reaction to the non-issue of the "DNC Emails" in the last few days, as well as the beginning of the inevitable shift of the greater part of the American Electorate ... the Independents.

Two to four points (four points in a very informal LA Times poll) is ... lackluster at best in terms of what Trump needed.

The bounce is actually 4-6 points depending on the poll.
The Romney numbers were explained in the article you linked. Trumps will be higher once all media numbers are released.
Looks like a convention bounce to me. It has little to do with the DNC emails because they reached fever pitch yesterday. The CNN poll which has Trump +5 in the 4 way race is actually a 10 point swing in 1 week and the latest poll was run form the 22nd to the 24th. If that last day of polling is responsible for the swing (when DNC emails broke) then it's much worse for Hillary, because it would suggest a massive fall in her numbers.
She better pray the change we are seeing is not DNCemail related.

(CNN)The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%.

That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court. National polls don't have a large enough sample to accurately reflect the state of play in key battlegrounds, and there is little information thus far on how Trump's convention performance has affected the presidential race state-by-state.

The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

a reply to: UKTruth

You sound like a true believer.

We will see.

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: UKTruth

You sound like a true believer.

We will see.

I believe that Trump has got a fairly significant bounce after a great convention(especially the last day and even more so his speech).
Will he win the election in Nov? Who knows. I think it will be close, but when it comes down to casting that vote there will be a lot of people who are too scared to make big changes, so I definitely give Clinton the edge.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: UKTruth

You sound like a true believer.

We will see.

I believe that Trump has got a fairly significant bounce after a great convention(especially the last day and even more so his speech).
Will he win the election in Nov? Who knows. I think it will be close, but when it comes down to casting that vote there will be a lot of people who are too scared to make big changes, so I definitely give Clinton the edge.

I understand that you liked the speech. What's important, however, is the overall American reaction to it, which seems either apathetic or negative for the most part.

Clinton is not a sure thing. Americans may not care about liars, but they care about cheaters.

originally posted by: CB328

I find it hard to believe that 50% of the nation is voting for Clinton. I have yet to run into a Clinton supporter

I am and I'm not the only person here voting for her. Considering that ATS is about 70% conservative it's not surprising that you aren't seeing them here, but in some parts of the country she has plenty of fans.

70% huh?

LOL, i heard once that 70% of all statistics quoted on the internet are 50% incorrect, and another 50% made up.

How many independants have you shoehorned into that box labelled "conservative"?

Im trying to not laugh at how ludicrous that was, but im losing the fight.