First major Clinton vs Trump poll since RNC convention - Trump leading

Gravis have just released their poll taken on Thursday and Friday..

Trump 51%
Clinton 49%

Given half the poll was conducted before Trump's speech and the majority of the last day of the convention, it will be interesting to see later polls and whether the trend continues.

The poll was a large poll of 3,462 responders. The margin of error is +/- 1.7% at the 95% confidence level.

This latest poll closes the overall average from RCP which now stands at

Clinton 44.7%
Trump 42.5%

www.realclearpolitics.com...

a reply to: UKTruth

I do believe the polls are going to tighten, but I wouldn't give any credibility to Gravis. They have a history of being way-off in their polling.

I don't think we can get a good grip on what the polls tell us until after the DNC convention. They will most likely get a slight bump, and then things will begin to average out much better. Then we can get a clearer look at the polls.

Great. Now they just have to use that voting machine software and we will have Clinton:51 Trump:49.....I find it hard to believe that 50% of the nation is voting for Clinton. I have yet to run into a Clinton supporter.

originally posted by: introvert
a reply to: UKTruth

I do believe the polls are going to tighten, but I wouldn't give any credibility to Gravis. They have a history of being way-off in their polling.

I don't think we can get a good grip on what the polls tell us until after the DNC convention. They will most likely get a slight bump, and then things will begin to average out much better. Then we can get a clearer look at the polls.

It's very early in the campaign for sure. In terms of Gravis they get a B- grade according to the fivethirtyeight.com assessment (one of the better ones). However apart from this poll, Trump is leading or tied in 3 of the last 4 polls, with the exception being Reuters which is skewed towards Democrats in the sample. The Reuters poll does give some extra data though that is interesting...



If you look through these numbers you start to see where Trump's messages play well with Independents and Democrats - probably even more so than Republicans.

The chaos likely this week will cause Hillary's popularity to sag even further.

Misleading title. The poll clearly shows Clinton in the lead. Trump leads in two Clinton leads in six. So just how is Trump leading?

a reply to: UKTruth

If I am not mistaken, each side gets a little bump in the polls after their respective conventions. Then things will level off and we may be able to get a better view of what the polls tell us.

Considering the DNC convention is this next week and we can logically assume they will receive that "bump", it seems logical to wait after the convention "bumps" have had time to play out before we salivate over poll numbers.

originally posted by: buster2010
Misleading title. The poll clearly shows Clinton in the lead. Trump leads in two Clinton leads in six. So just how is Trump leading?

LATEST poll, which is Gravis, the only major poll post convention - as the title said. So not in the slightest bit misleading.
I already referenced the fact in the OP that Clinton is leading in the averages including the ones prior to the RNC.

originally posted by: introvert
a reply to: UKTruth

If I am not mistaken, each side gets a little bump in the polls after their respective conventions. Then things will level off and we may be able to get a better view of what the polls tell us.

Considering the DNC convention is this next week and we can logically assume they will receive that "bump", it seems logical to wait after the convention "bumps" have had time to play out before we salivate over poll numbers.

Agree with that - Once we get the full effect of Thursday at the RNC we'll be at 'half time' in this convention polling cycle.
I am not salivating - just getting that first read through, which I've been keen to see.

Poll to me mean nothing especially this early.

Look how badly they got the the brexit wrong.

They work only in normal political climates when people are behaving like predictable sheep sure.


But in high emotional, politically turbulent situations? I wont trust anything but the election result.

originally posted by: iTruthSeeker
I have yet to run into a Clinton supporter.

I hear they are very nimble on their feet.

Yeah after the DNC they will get a lillte bump. A big one after the debates.

We need to see polls that include Johnson and Stein options, honestly.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: buster2010
Misleading title. The poll clearly shows Clinton in the lead. Trump leads in two Clinton leads in six. So just how is Trump leading?

LATEST poll, which is Gravis, the only major poll post convention - as the title said. So not in the slightest bit misleading.
I already referenced the fact in the OP that Clinton is leading in the averages including the ones prior to the RNC.

Yes the title is misleading. If you want to only refer to the Gravis poll then the title should have been Gravis poll shows Trump leading Clinton. But now you are using other polls to try and back up your statement cherry picking polls just shows you refuse to acknowledge that Clinton is stomping Trump.

originally posted by: introvert
a reply to: UKTruth

If I am not mistaken, each side gets a little bump in the polls after their respective conventions. Then things will level off and we may be able to get a better view of what the polls tell us.

Considering the DNC convention is this next week and we can logically assume they will receive that "bump", it seems logical to wait after the convention "bumps" have had time to play out before we salivate over poll numbers.

This is normally true, but it needs to be mentioned that Hillary polls much better when she has been out of the public eye. Whenever she comes back into the spotlight and has to talk her approval numbers tend to go down.

So I'll be very interested to see polls after the DNC convention is over.

originally posted by: Teikiatsu
We need to see polls that include Johnson and Stein options, honestly.

True we should be doing that. But we are stuck with the two party mindset.

originally posted by: buster2010

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: buster2010
Misleading title. The poll clearly shows Clinton in the lead. Trump leads in two Clinton leads in six. So just how is Trump leading?

LATEST poll, which is Gravis, the only major poll post convention - as the title said. So not in the slightest bit misleading.
I already referenced the fact in the OP that Clinton is leading in the averages including the ones prior to the RNC.

Yes the title is misleading. If you want to only refer to the Gravis poll then the title should have been Gravis poll shows Trump leading Clinton. But now you are using other polls to try and back up your statement cherry picking polls just shows you refuse to acknowledge that Clinton is stomping Trump.

The Gravis poll is the ONLY major poll that has been done post the RNC, so if you can actually read and comprehend, then no the title is not misleading. For others, I can't help them.

Title : "First major Clinton vs Trump poll since RNC convention - Trump leading". read this a few times to yourself and hopefully you will get it.

For information, there are no national polls showing Clinton 'stomping' Trump. None at all, but that is a different subject and off topic. Maybe you can start a thread claiming that and I will contribute.

a reply to: UKTruth

Of course Trump is leading, next week Hillary will be leading. The polls during this time are not trust worthy, they never are during the RNC and DNC. Wait about 3 to 4 weeks after the DNC for more accurate polling numbers.

a reply to: UKTruth

The problem isn't in what issues he is addressing, it's in how he addresses them.

For a lot of Democrats, they think that government needs to do more to control the economy, not less. They really think a centrally planned economy would be the best option; oh and just go global with it while you're at it. Then they turn around and complain about outsourcing, but I guess that goes with complaining about big corps. I'm not sure how they think letting one global governance entity run it all will make the outsourcing issue any better.

People in those other countries will still need to work, and in the eyes of the globalist SJW crowd, we need to level that playing field. It's not fair we have as many jobs as we do, so the outsourcing will only get worse.

that's a disappointing bump

what remains to be seen is if hillary can manage a counter bump

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: UKTruth

The problem isn't in what issues he is addressing, it's in how he addresses them.

For a lot of Democrats, they think that government needs to do more to control the economy, not less. They really think a centrally planned economy would be the best option; oh and just go global with it while you're at it. Then they turn around and complain about outsourcing, but I guess that goes with complaining about big corps. I'm not sure how they think letting one global governance entity run it all will make the outsourcing issue any better.

People in those other countries will still need to work, and in the eyes of the globalist SJW crowd, we need to level that playing field. It's not fair we have as many jobs as we do, so the outsourcing will only get worse.

One of the things I found interesting about the Reuters data was crime. It's actually most important to the democrats according to the data, so the law and order message might sway some who believe that to be the number one issue (14% f democrats, vs only 3% for Republicans)